Here we go again...

[jimbunyard]

Soon to be major Hurricane Delta. Maybe it'll maintain forward speed this time...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents


Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

A few hours ago, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters supported
upgrading Delta to a hurricane. Very recent reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters, who are currently in Delta, support
increasing the intensity a little more to 70 kt. The minimum
pressure has also decreased a few mb from the NOAA mission, and is
now estimated to be 977 mb. Delta has strengthened at a rapid rate
of 40 kt since genesis occurred just 24 hours ago. The hurricane is
quite compact with a developing tight inner core, and even the
tropical-storm-force winds extend only up to 60 n mi or so from the
center.

After moving westward for much of the day, aircraft fixes from NOAA
and the Air Force indicate that the hurricane has resumed a
west-northwest motion, with the latest initial motion estimated to
be 295/6 kt. Delta is expected to move to the northwest at a fairly
quick pace on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between
a subtropical high over the western Atlantic and Post-Tropical
Cyclone Gamma over or near the Yucatan Peninsula. This motion
should take Delta over or very near the northeastern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night and over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Wednesday. After that time, the western part of the ridge
is expected to slowly erode as a trough moves eastward across the
south-central U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause
Delta to slow down and then turn northward toward the northern Gulf
coast, and it will likely make landfall there in a little more
than 4 days. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC
track forecast is only a touch to the west of the previous one.

The hurricane has taken advantage of the near ideal conditions of
low vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and very warm
29-30 C SSTs. These favorable environmental conditions for the
hurricane will persist for the next 2 or 3 days or so, and
therefore, it seems reasonable to believe that rapid intensification
will continue in the short term. Delta is expected to become a major
hurricane in about 24 hours when it is near the Yuctan Peninsula.
If Delta makes landfall on that landmass, it would likely temper
the cyclone's strength for a period of time. Beyond a few days,
when Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast, there
will likely be an increase in southwesterly wind shear. These less
conducive upper-level winds and cooler shelf waters should end the
strengthening trend prior to the U.S. landfall. The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to
the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

[jimbunyard]

Up to cat three in less than 12 hrs. Cozumel/Cancun directly in it's path. Still moving fast, and quite compact. NDBC buoy about 150 miles to the northwest shows only 12-15 knots. On present track, should be near 80-100 knots by about six tonight. Won't that be a surprise for any without modern tech, close contact with someone who does, or close experience with local weather...


https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_pa...?station=42056


Hope anyone on the northern Yucatan peninsula has prepared and makes out OK. Keeping our fingers crossed here.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/061454.shtml

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Satellite imagery and recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
show that Delta is a very symmetric and compact hurricane. The
aircraft reported a tiny 5-nmi-wide eye, which has also been
seen in radar imagery from the Cayman Islands, and there is a hint
of a pinhole eye in infrared satellite data. The central pressure
has continued to fall, with the lastest center dropwindsonde data
supporting a pressure of 955 mb. The plane has reported a peak
flight-level winds of 109 kt, and believable SFMR winds of 102 kt.
Therefore, the initial intensity is set at 100 kt, making Delta the
third major hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

Delta has continued to rapidly strengthen over the past 24 hours,
with an estimated 55-kt increase in wind speed between 1200 UTC
Monday and 1200 UTC today. Environmental conditions of low
vertical wind shear, deep warm waters, and sufficient mid-level
moisture are expected to support additional rapid intensification
through today, and the only reason that the strengthening could
slow is if a difficult-to-predict eyewall replace cycle begins.
The SHIPS Rapid intensification index continues to indicate a high
likelihood of at least an additional 25-30 kt of intensity increase
before the system reaches the northeastern portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Given that, the NHC intensity forecast is above the
various intensity aids and call for Delta to be an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane when it nears the Yucatan. It could
be stronger than indicated below since landfall is predicted to
occur between the 12 and 24 h forecast points. Some reduction in
intensity is likely when Delta moves over land, but the
environmental conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico are
expected to support re-strengthening, and the NHC intensity
forecast shows a second peak in 48-72 hours. As mentioned before,
increasing southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the
northern Gulf coast are expected to cause some reduction in wind
speed, but Delta is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when
it nears the northern Gulf coast.

Delta is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. A mid-level
ridge that extends westward across Florida and the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer Delta west-northwestward to
northwestward during the next couple of days. As the hurricane
nears the western portion of the ridge it should slow down. By
day three a developing trough over the south-central United States
is expected to cause Delta to turn northward toward the northern
Gulf coast. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 48
hours, but there is still a fair amount of spread thereafter
regarding the timing and details of the northward turn. The ECMWF
and its ensemble mean are well west of the bulk of the remainder of
the guidance. The NHC track lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus
which is close to a blend of the GFS, HWRF, UKMET ensemble mean.

[GordMay]

Delta broke the record for the earliest 25th named storm ever to form, eclipsing the previous mark of Nov. 15, 2005, when Tropical Storm Gamma briefly formed in the Caribbean Sea.
It is the strongest Greek alphabet storm in history.
Delta is also the fastest storm to intensify from tropical depression, to a Category 4 storm, in modern records, beating Hurricane Keith (2000) by six hours. Delta went from a tropical depression (35mph) to a Category 4 hurricane (145 mph) in 36 hours.

Delta weakened to a strong Category 2 storm (110 MPH winds), as it made landfall along Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (near Puerto Morelos, about 20 miles south of Cancun) this morning.