How to Ride Out a Storm

[Sailor g]

Originally Posted by zeehag

storms with up to 100 KT winds-- they call some of them chubascos here. a lil south of us are tehuantepeckers. high winds. the pacific northwest has cyclonics COLD winter storms. the windspeed in those happens to be close to or at tropical storm and cat1 hurrycame strength. btdt. we were on board thru those -- what is difference between warm cyclonic storm and a cold one--i cannot see any difference. escept the damnable coldness of the icy ones from pnw make life a lil miserable for a couple of days.

The bad thing about cold storms is that cold wind has more molecules by volume and packs more of a punch- so it can be the same windspeed and do more damage. Harder to stay on task when your freezing too!

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Rakuflames

The thing is, how can you evaluate all those factors? How do you know that a storm surge won't carry a lot of debris from broken boats that will his your boat and do serious damage, for instance? How do you know the storm won't suddenly strengthen as Andrew did? The problem with your attitude is that you can't evaluate all the risks until the debris is piling on your bow and weighing it down.

I am afraid you are trying to transfer things from the pretty much well organised world of ideas to the real world. But that's not how it works.

The point is, we do not know. You have the forecast, you know the local facts and you make an educated and well meant guess. It is not a wild guess, note. Aside from the fact that you may misjudge things, the actual weather may too be either way of the forecast, note.

So, we will make an educated, informed guess, and we will not know whether it was wise or stupid to make the decision we made until the storm blows over.

Now you say there is a problem with the attitude I presented (and you will stay at home where you are lead to believe YOU are safer?). Now you please let me know how you evaluate that it is safer in the house than in the boat? Perhaps there is a land-slide and the house will be flattened while the boat will just marginally make it (without your help though).

OK, so I think you are getting my drift. Not being able to evaluate all factors does not imply we should stop evaluating the ones that can be evaluated. And making decisions. Right or wrong.

But sure this is only one attitude. If my attitudes do not work for me, I change them too.

Cheers,
b.

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

I am afraid you are trying to transfer things from the pretty much well organised world of ideas to the real world. But that's not how it works.

The point is, we do not know. You have the forecast, you know the local facts and you make an educated and well meant guess. It is not a wild guess, note. Aside from the fact that you may misjudge things, the actual weather may too be either way of the forecast, note.

So, we will make an educated, informed guess, and we will not know whether it was wise or stupid to make the decision we made until the storm blows over.

Now you say there is a problem with the attitude I presented (and you will stay at home where you are lead to believe YOU are safer?). Now you please let me know how you evaluate that it is safer in the house than in the boat? Perhaps there is a land-slide and the house will be flattened while the boat will just marginally make it (without your help though).

OK, so I think you are getting my drift. Not being able to evaluate all factors does not imply we should stop evaluating the ones that can be evaluated. And making decisions. Right or wrong.

But sure this is only one attitude. If my attitudes do not work for me, I change them too.

Cheers,
b.

For whatever reason, we often misunderstand each other Barnakiel. Your statement that you can't take ideas and logically apply them to an inherently unpredictable storm situation.

One of those unpredictable things is exactly how strong a hurricane is.

However one makes their decisions, it can't be based on the "fact" of what category the storm will be. That is logical, but it's the also the truth. My marina mgr has cheerfully advised me that this well-protected harbor will survive a cat 1 hurricane, that it's happened before. In fact this area hasn't had a DIRECT hit from a hurricane of any size in something like 80 years. We've been brushed.

Fact is, I have to have a plan B and a plan C and D.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Rakuflames

For whatever reason, we often misunderstand each other Barnakiel. Your statement that you can't take ideas and logically apply them to an inherently unpredictable storm situation.

(...)

Fact is, I have to have a plan B and a plan C and D.

Doh! That's the point - every case is unique and every owner has their specific set of limitations and priorities.

Put me in your shoes and I will most likely exactly match your needs, attitudes and decisions!

Best regards and stay safe!
barnakiel

[Lance835]

Thank you all for all your inputs! Since we will be moving around the florida coast, and the islands how do we locate these Hurricane holes?

Also where is a good place to stay 5 degrees north?

It would appear to me that one will need to know these holes way ahead of time and not start looking as the storm approaches.

[delmarrey]

Originally Posted by Lance835

Thank you all for all your inputs! Since we will be moving around the florida coast, and the islands how do we locate these Hurricane holes?

Also where is a good place to stay 5 degrees north?

It would appear to me that one will need to know these holes way ahead of time and not start looking as the storm approaches.

This should be another thread entirely!

[zeehag]

lance--i kinda planned my trip so far with the knowledge that mazatlan, for example, is a good place to avoid hurrycames. i learned this from a friend who spent a bunch of years here and the knowledge that the last major storm to hit here was 33 yrs ago. i listened to the locals who have lived here a lifetime and did what they said to do. i watched the storms form and dissipate via storm pulse, complete with prediction , fairly accurately , as to intensity and routing. i was not disappointed. i watched irene be attracted to some friends without rudder sitting on land and chewed my nails for them, as they know. (loved your reports, mj!--awesome!!) and chewed my nails as i watched a coupl-a-few try to hit my area, then dissipate. i watched the highs and lows push and pull the forming storms around in the ocean and wondered when we were all gonna die here in our basin ..... as i AM out here in storm central in a boat, omg, i am more than aware of the dangers and needs of our ilk--- and i am aware of the shortfallings and strong points of using more than 3 sites--even tho they all come from one, there are varying opinions on even weather--- to make myself as comfortable with impending doom s possible.
when i had a doubt as to my ability to figger out the path and intensity, i turned to storm 2k--geat predictions and discussions there.

raku--with time and experience watching furycames, and storm formation and areas of greatest impact, you will find a greater comfort in predicting their impending arrival and doom factor. it is something i have observed and studied for loong time--since i was a wee child. was fun and interesting. i started with the world telegram and sun--they had a weather map inside with the high and lows marked --isobars--and i learned from reading those and going from there. now we have combine those with sat pix--wow --what fun to read-- and the intensity predictions ar ewritten into stormpulse and nws sites--- is really not that difficult and i havent noticed much error in their predictions these days.
i did learn 2009-2010 that noaa means not one accuraate asessment, specially in florida--so is most important to see instead of just hear the weather as it comes at you. tv doesnt cut it. relying on radio and television for weather predictions is as good as trying suicide.

we can either learn about our chosen environment or we can stay home and avoid problems by remaining in the questionable safety of a house on land...

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by Lance835

Thank you all for all your inputs! Since we will be moving around the florida coast, and the islands how do we locate these Hurricane holes?

Also where is a good place to stay 5 degrees north?

It would appear to me that one will need to know these holes way ahead of time and not start looking as the storm approaches.

Hurricane holes are "local knowledge." Pull into port stocked with some extra beer and just make it part of the conversation.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Rakuflames

Hurricane holes are "local knowledge." Pull into port stocked with some extra beer and just make it part of the conversation.

And hope the locals don't have an evil sense of humour....

[Hud3]

Good point, boatman.

Any outsider is likely to be viewed as unwelcome, since space in the safest hurricane holes is always limited. Even if you get there early and stake a claim you might run into problems. I heard a story about the locals cutting a boat loose from a mooring in Hurricane Hole on St Johns. The owner wasn't a member of the local in-crowd. Don't know if it's true or not, but one could imagine it happening.

[Dkdoyle]

Originally Posted by zeehag

if in a hidey hole and threatened---or on the hard an threatened---or in a marina in a hidey hole and looking at a close one---
h1-2 stay with boat. hunker down
h3-4 out the door--
h5 we all gonna die.

friends in oriental, n.c. waited out irene in theirs on the hard sans rudder-- we agreed on this one.. we were waiting for hurrycames to hit here all summer but we lucked out well this year. is a scary thought having hurrycames coming at your area-- but preplanning is good. i followed the advice of native mexicans from mazatlan who are shrimpers and water men. watch weather like hawk.

Ha Ha. Had not heard this one. Pretty good advice. I would add that it totally depends on what side of the storm you are on also. The northern edge is much worse then the southern. It is either going to push the watwr at you or away from you. If you are lucky you won't get both. If you can go inland up a river or canal. Storms lose their punch after they hit land. In the keys you can shove yourself in the mangroves and tie off in all directions. In the islands i would think you would take the boat south but maybe someone else can answer. In florida i would look at historical info to see hurricane paths

[zeehag]

lance--are you gonna do the west coast of fla--if so--lemme know--i know some gooood hidey holes......

dkdoyle-- mj and i invented that one in our fingernail chewing state during irene when she was sitting rudderless on the hard in oriental....

[delmarrey]

Zee, don't know if you have it or not but here is an excellent site for Mex weather. >>> Baja California Weather

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by boatman61

And hope the locals don't have an evil sense of humour....

Well, you'd want to hear the reasons why they think it's a good hurricane hole -- and watch for signs of snickering among the other locals!

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by Hud3

Good point, boatman.

Any outsider is likely to be viewed as unwelcome, since space in the safest hurricane holes is always limited. Even if you get there early and stake a claim you might run into problems. I heard a story about the locals cutting a boat loose from a mooring in Hurricane Hole on St Johns. The owner wasn't a member of the local in-crowd. Don't know if it's true or not, but one could imagine it happening.

Where I am this kind of information is freely shared. Obviously, if the natives are unfriendly, cut their beer off!