HURRICANE BERYL

[JPA Cate]

How far south are you now, SWL? Just wanting to know if you are out of its way?

Ann

[Seaworthy Lass]

The NHC/NOAA issued a new Discussion at 5 pm AST:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../282033.shtml?

“ Beryl continues to rapidly strengthen, and has now become a
hurricane……
…..Now that Beryl has developed a compact inner core, it seems likely
that it will continue to intensify quickly since the hurricane will
remain in near ideal environmental conditions during the next day or
two. The NHC intensity forecast is again nudged upward in the short
term, and shows Beryl becoming a dangerous major hurricane prior to
it reaching the Windward Islands….. ”

These updates are vital reading for anyone affected by Beryl, as is frequent monitoring of the NHS and Tropical Tidbits websites. Both links were posted earlier.

For anyone in the region, please don’t depend on a spot forecasts from a variety of single models as the main source of information for your location. For such small systems the track only needs to shift a tiny amount for the data to alter dramatically.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

How far south are you now, SWL? Just wanting to know if you are out of its way?

Ann

We delayed heading south and are still currently further north in the Lesser Antilles, but my stomach has been churning for a few days, just as it once did before exams.

Tropical Tidbids has a mass of charts to explore with the option of rewinding data and it was becoming apparent that step by step as the system was progressing, the obstacles to development were melting in its path.

There are a mass of cruising boats in the area that are not showing up on AIS that will be affected by this. June to December the southern part of Grenada is packed with yachts both at anchor and on hardstands for hurricane season, as it is regarded as the safest spot in the Greater and Lesser Antilles during hurricane season (apart from the ABC islands further west). Add to that all the boats that have headed to Grenada in the last few days, or any still at anchor or in marinas further north.

Intensity is very hard to predict accurately, but this system has ramped up rapidly and conditions seem to be aligning to help it continue to do so.

I worry for everyone .

[carstenb]

We're in Rodney Bay in the marina. Everything I can see today has the track heading just a smidgeon more south (even GFS is now saying it will hit the Grenadines, not St. Vincent).

The locals here are saying "no worries" There is no chance of a surge here in the marina and even cat 3 winds don't blow all that hard here in the marina.

We've done what we can and now we can only wait..................

yes I know - Hope is not a strategy

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by carstenb

We're in Rodney Bay in the marina. Everything I can see today has the track heading just a smidgeon more south (even GFS is now saying it will hit the Grenadines, not St. Vincent).

The locals here are saying "no worries" There is no chance of a surge here in the marina and even cat 3 winds don't blow all that hard here in the marina.

We've done what we can and now we can only wait..................

yes I know - Hope is not a strategy

Carsten, we are thinking of you and very much hope this system affects St Lucia minimally.
xxx

[MicHughV]

I'm a big fan of

Mike's Weather Page.

The page gives umpteen models, forecasts, etc, etc, and from my point ov view is pretty much on the money.

Btw. as of this writing Beryl is now a 'cane...predicted to grow into a Cat 3.

[MicHughV]

a better link

https://spaghettimodels.com/

[Messing About]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

I'm a big fan of

Mike's Weather Page.

The page gives umpteen models, forecasts, etc, etc, and from my point ov view is pretty much on the money.

Same here. Have followed Mike Boylan and his page since 2007, when I first moved to FL. Great guy and terrific site.

[Ryban]

Quite a large exodus south occurring now.

I suspect the southern bays in Grenada will be mostly sheltered from the worst of any winds, which should mostly be north and westerly as the storm passes to the north. But as the eye passes they will shift to southerlies which could shoot right into the bays unobstructed. Maybe not a big deal if the eye is far enough north like the grenadines, but if it's a little bit further south those winds could be pretty strong.

[carstenb]

At the moment, Sunday morning, all the major forecasts are saying the eye will pass somewhere south of st. vincent

A couple minor ones are saying the eye will hit grenada

ya throw the dice and ya takes your chances.

[Kettlewell]

Good luck to all cruisers down there! Luck can play a big roll, after you've done everything you can to make it the "good" version.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Ryban

Quite a large exodus south occurring now.

This morning (Sunday) the number of pink targets heading down to Trinidad from Grenada looks like a mass migration on Marine Traffic, even more than yesterday. There are likely to be more boats further south, but cruisers usually turn off their AIS in this region so as not to attract unsavoury attention.

They may seem to be leaving it late, but Sunday is a sensible time to go. Winds are generally favourable for heading south the day before a system comes through and if its diameter is small, as it is for Beryl, you don’t need to move far to avoid the worst of it. The day before a system hits there is far more reliable information regarding its track and intensity. If you move too early you could be shifting straight into its path if it veers in your direction.

At this stage I think it is clear Trinidad is the safest spot to be in this region.

NHC/NOAA now predict this will hit the Windward Islands as a Category 4 hurricane.

[Seaworthy Lass]

NHC/NOAA issued a “Hurricane Warning” yesterday for Barbados, Grenada, St Vincent & the Grenadines and St Lucia and this morning included the lower edge of Martinique and Tobago.

They predict Beryl will impact the Windward islands tomorrow as a Category 4 hurricane. Computer models that were initially thought to be overestimating intensity of this system, are now thought to be underestimating it. Most currently forecast a Cat 2 or 3 at impact.

Computer models currently forecast the track to pass through the centre of the Grenadines.
The image below from the National Hurricane Center gives their best estimate of the cone of uncertainty.

The depression a couple of days behind Beryl has just been named named 96L and forecast track is currently similar to Beryl’s.

[MicHughV]

A cat 4 hurricane is not to be trifled with.

Getting as far away from it makes sense.

One also needs to consider how much of the place will be left on their return, further compounding the problem.

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

A cat 4 hurricane is not to be trifled with.

Getting as far away from it makes sense.

One also needs to consider how much of the place will be left on their return, further compounding the problem.

Usually after a Hurricane that strong passes through, the drinking water is bad, there is no power, and many docks will be gone. Bottle water could be all gone as well....sold out.

If there is a large surge, many floating docks will be lifted up over their pilings.

That is what happened in Pensacola in 2004 with Ivan.

Also there will be lots of debris in the water making it hard to get close to normal docking locations.

Ivan was a Cat 5 but dropped to a low Cat 4/high Cat 3 just before landfall. Surge was 12'-18' depending on your location.

The surge also took out sections of 1-10.

There were also lots of tornado associated with Ivan. Well over 100 before the storm was downgraded.

The outbreak killed 7 people and injured dozens of others across several states from Florida to Pennsylvania. The hurricane itself killed at least 90 people from the US to the eastern Caribbean Islands. Overall it produced 120 tornadoes surpassing the record of 117 that was previously held by Hurricane Beulah during the 1967 Atlantic hurricane season.[4] Ivan also produced 16 more tornadoes than Hurricane Frances which struck most of the same regions (the tornado outbreak) about ten days earlier.