HURRICANE BERYL

[mbianka]

Originally Posted by Ryban

Beryl is now a Cat 5 hurricane. The earliest forming Cat 5 in the Atlantic and only the second ever Category 5 hurricane ever to form before August.

One outlier storm obviously doesn’t necessarily equate to a product of climate change, but we sure have been seeing a lot of outliers lately. Curious to see how insurance companies react in the next few years.

On the bright side:

"One of the main purposes for hurricanes around the globe is a temperature balance between the poles and the equator.

This imbalance of temperatures will always exist due to the orientation of the polar axis of our planet. Earth’s equator receives more solar energy, called insolation, than any other latitude on a yearly average. This insolation warms the ocean temperature, which in turn warms the air above it and keeps it warmer long into the autumn.

The Earth is always trying to spread this warm wealth around the world, and hurricanes are one of the ways this is done. Mid-latitude storm systems and oceanic currents are others.

Hurricanes, due to their size and interactions with the upper levels of the atmosphere, are very efficient movers of equatorial heat."

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by mbianka

On the bright side:

"One of the main purposes for hurricanes around the globe is a temperature balance between the poles and the equator.

This imbalance of temperatures will always exist due to the orientation of the polar axis of our planet. Earth’s equator receives more solar energy, called insolation, than any other latitude on a yearly average. This insolation warms the ocean temperature, which in turn warms the air above it and keeps it warmer long into the autumn.

The Earth is always trying to spread this warm wealth around the world, and hurricanes are one of the ways this is done. Mid-latitude storm systems and oceanic currents are others.

Hurricanes, due to their size and interactions with the upper levels of the atmosphere, are very efficient movers of equatorial heat."

I doubt those folks anywhere near the path of Beryl would agree with you about this bright side thing you are describing.

Some folks will lose everything.

And that is very tough to see especially if you are there to see it.

[lestersails]

Originally Posted by Ryban

Beryl is now a Cat 5 hurricane. The earliest forming Cat 5 in the Atlantic and only the second ever Category 5 hurricane ever to form before August.

One outlier storm obviously doesn’t necessarily equate to a product of climate change, but we sure have been seeing a lot of outliers lately. Curious to see how insurance companies react in the next few years.

I wouldn't say "curious to see" about a near dead certainty. Rates are going up. Insurers are mathematicians and there is just about zero doubt that the climate is getting worse. In fact, we'll be lucky if rates go up. A number of reports of some insurers leaving markets altogether because of climate change risks (i.e., Florida).

[carstenb]

Has anyone heard how the boats in the marina in St Georges harbor on Grenada fared? We have some acquaintances who put their boat there. Looking at marine traffic, I can see the AIS signal from 2 days ago when they arrived, but now marine traffic says "vessel out of range", which is not a comforting message

[GordMay]

Pictures from Barbados:

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[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by carstenb

Has anyone heard how the boats in the marina in St Georges harbor on Grenada fared? We have some acquaintances who put their boat there. Looking at marine traffic, I can see the AIS signal from 2 days ago when they arrived, but now marine traffic says "vessel out of range", which is not a comforting message

They are most likely fine.
This was posted an hour ago on Port Louis Marina’s Facebook page (the marina in St Georges):
https://www.facebook.com/portlouismarina/

“Hurricane Beryl Update: The team and berth holders at Port Louis Marina are safe and well, and there is minimal reported hurricane damage to the yachts or marina facilities at present.”

I presume the photo attached to the post is a current one:

[Seaworthy Lass]

Clarkes Court Marina on the south side was apparently also thankfully received “no significant damage”:

https://www.facebook.com/clarkescourtmarina/

From 14 hours ago:
“Update from Clarkes Court Boatyard and Marina: Aftermath of Hurricane Beryl.
Preliminary assessment reveals that there has been no significant damage sustained by vessels at the docks or in the boatyard during the passage of Hurricane Beryl.”

[Seaworthy Lass]

No Facebook updates from either marina in Tyrell Bay in Carriacou, but I have read that most boats have toppled in Carriacou Marina (the smaller one with Customs and Immigration facilities), our friend’s boat amongst them, and around half the ones in Tyrell Marina are down as well, the lot in the southern portion of the hard stand.
Damage has also occurred to the boats in the mangroves next to Tyrell Marina.

Edited to add: No Facebook update from Sandy Lane Marina in Canouan either.

If Facebook isn’t being updated are the marinas communicating with boat owners individually or leaving them uninformed?

[DragonflyBob]

My wife and I did our honeymoon in 2012 chartering a Leopard 40 in the SVG for two weeks and our travels took us from Grenada hopping the islands up to Bequia and back. It was a wonderful trip and we fell in love with the country and the people. Our thoughts are certainly with them all.

I think the only saving grace with this storm was that it was relatively small and fast moving. Here in Louisiana we are starting our hurricane preparations for the season. It certainly is worrisome Beryl happened this early.

Glad the marina’s above fared well. We have floating docks in our marina in New Orleans where we keep a J/80 and our Dragonfly 32 in the water. The docks move up and down on large pilings and can handle up to a 20’ surge above mean water level so as long as I strip the boats of sails and canvas and double up on fenders and dock lines, I believe we have a good chance of being fine up to a Cat 3 surge and wind gusts. Probably not so if we had a direct hit Cat 4 but New Orleans historically does not get direct hits since it has 50-75 miles of wetlands to the east and south that always seem to take some teeth out of a storm’s landfall. We saw that with Katrina in 2005 and Ida in 2021. We just had shitty levees built by corrupt contractors in 2005 during Katrina!

[mbianka]

Originally Posted by thomm225

I doubt those folks anywhere near the path of Beryl would agree with you about this bright side thing you are describing.

Some folks will lose everything.

And that is very tough to see especially if you are there to see it.

Duh! Of course but, from a global perspective hurricanes are still a natural part of equalizing global temperatures. Also when a hurricane passes through an area it cools the waters behind it helping to knock down the severity of any following storms.

"In nature there are neither rewards nor punishments; there are consequences." — Robert Green Ingersoll

Just like keeping a boat in the tropics during hurricane season carries with it's own set of consequences and one needs to accept and be aware of them.

[mbianka]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Good news regarding Elysium and Smokyjim, the two boats seen at sea just south of Grenada this morning. Elysium had been milling around the SW tip for about 10 hours at least. Smokyjim was heading south at 6 knots. By 10 am the signal from both was no longer picked up.

Two hours ago Elysium was in St David’s harbour on the south side of Grenada. An hour ago Smokyjim was nearly in Trinidad.

It would be interesting to interview the Captain of Elysium on what his thinking was about riding out Hurricane Beryl. What were the conditions like? Did he have any second thoughts? What prep did he do? Etc...

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by mbianka

Just like keeping a boat in the tropics during hurricane season carries with it's own set of consequences and one needs to accept and be aware of them.

I don't think anyone is refusing to accept it. The sad part is Grenada was the same option. Prior to yesterday there was only one named storm to hit it in the last 60 years. That is pretty good odds.

Sadly Grenada as a hurricaine hole is not immune to climate change. The last named storm was 2004 and now we have another one 20 years later. That is not as bad as part of Florida but the risk is rising.

With it insurance costs. I can feel my insurance provider crunching the numbers right for next year's premium increase right now. Thankfully just renewed last week so have a while before that pain hits.

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by mbianka

Duh! Of course but, from a global perspective hurricanes are still a natural part of equalizing global temperatures. Also when a hurricane passes through an area it cools the waters behind it helping to knock down the severity of any following storms.

"In nature there are neither rewards nor punishments; there are consequences." — Robert Green Ingersoll

Just like keeping a boat in the tropics during hurricane season carries with it's own set of consequences and one needs to accept and be aware of them.

Yeah, maybe for a little while.

In the Gulf of Mexico in 2004, we had Cat 5 Ivan which decreased a bit before hitting us in Pensacola.

In 2005, we had Cat 5 Katrina which hit near New Orleans and also affected the coastline for 100's or miles with its 26' surge.

Climate change is the main factor which is generating these monster hurricanes it appears.

And it's will only get worse. Then add in sea level rise.

Where I'm from on the Eastern Shore of Virginia, they have to close schools many times these days after heavy rains due to flooding.

This almost never happened 40 years ago.

Just saw this also with a search:

The Gulf of Mexico saw record levels of tropical activity in 2005, with 11 named storms entering the basin. The unusual activity was attributed to a persistent high pressure area over the Southeastern United States

[DragonflyBob]

Originally Posted by mbianka

Duh! Of course but, from a global perspective hurricanes are still a natural part of equalizing global temperatures. Also when a hurricane passes through an area it cools the waters behind it helping to knock down the severity of any following storms.

That certainly could have been a factor in the disturbance behind Beryl that is no longer even shown on the maps.

[DragonflyBob]

Originally Posted by thomm225

Yeah, maybe for a little while.

In the Gulf of Mexico in 2004, we had Cat 5 Ivan which decreased a bit before hitting us in Pensacola.

In 2005, we had Cat 5 Katrina which hit near New Orleans and also affected the coastline for 100's or miles with its 26' surge.

Don’t forget Rita which followed 2.5 weeks after Katrina and was also a Cat 5. What a year that was!

Katrina decreased from Cat 5 to Cat 3 just before landfall right at the LA/MS state line. For sure the Mississippi Gulf coast took the hardest hit by the storm surge since Katrina was a HUGE storm and pretty slow moving.

We had more wind damage than New Orleans in Slidell, Covington, and Mandeville and because the wind direction was out of the north, it limited the surge’s affect on our side of Lake Pontchartrain. New Orleans had pretty much dodged the bullet until the levees failed because all that water piled up on the south shore and led to the levee failures. The forensics on those failures showed corruption by the contractors who built them and the Army Corps of Engineers who oversaw the construction. Statute of limitations and the perpetrators dying off prevented any kind of criminal prosecution but the Corps of Engineers certainly had (and still has) a lot of egg on their face.