HURRICANE BERYL

[mbianka]

Amazing video. I was planing on riding out Hurricane Sandy on my boat while at a mooring on Long Island. But, I could not get to the boatyard because of street flooding. After the storm I found my boat a thousand feet away from where I left it still attached to the mooring and luckily with no damage. I did ride out a nor easter onboard later which convinced me to never stay onboard in a big storm ever again, I'm sure the fellow in the video won't either.

[lestersails]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

That video will give me nightmares!

It also highlights that for the Leeward islands if it is clear 24/48 hours beforehand that a hurricane will hit very close, even having gone to the trouble of securing the boat in mangroves (or tying up in a marina) you need to consider the option of sailing/motoring south if you and your boat are capable. The hurricanes hitting this region tend to be small in diameter and a day’s sail south will generally get you well out of the way, even taking the error in forecast track into account.

With roughly a 30 nm error in the NHC’s track forecast 24 hours before, no boat on the south side of Grenada (about 33nm from the point of impact) should have considered themselves in a safe spot, yet for whatever reason many boats in the water still chose to stay put.

This graph shows how forecast error has improved over the years and how much it improves as a system gets closer. Importantly, five days out the error can be 150-200 nm so don’t put too much faith in the forecast track that far in advance. Anyone in that region is vulnerable to a direct hit:

This is a great point. And it reminds me that I deeply, deeply regret not jumping on a plane with my friend and sailing his beautiful 1 yo FP Lucia south when Irma was bearing down on the BVI. It was sunk and a total loss.

[Tin Tin]

Obviously no one will know the true stats, but if one had named storm insurance cover for Grenada one would not be as motivated to sail to Trinidad. Getting an insurance payout for some is not a bad outcome depending on individual circumstances. The underwriters for next year may well revise their limits.

[pointbob]

But on the up side people seem to be taking advantage of cheap damaged boats. Curious what this sold for.

https://youtu.be/YNCyYH1DLCM

[pianopraze]

97L coming. Strait up west coast FL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3yH4r3Z8EQ

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by pianopraze

97L coming. Strait up west coast FL

This system has been crawling along and developing slower than expected for a week now since it was first reported approaching the Leeward Caribbean islands last Friday.

It has been renamed Potential Tropical Cyclone 4. It will probably be named Debbie, but the latest report today is forecasting only a tropical storm.

We breathed a sigh of relief when it was apparent it was developing slower than expected. The images below show its progression and most current intensity forecast.

Screenshots are for:
Friday 26 July 1:32 pm EDT
Monday 29 July 1:29 am EDT
Friday 2 Aug 18:00z