Hurricane Danny - NE Caribbean

[poiu]

The first of the season in the eastern Caribbean. TS Danny is now upgraded to a Hurricane. Current forecast is for a cat 1 to pass over Antigua on Monday morning.

Plenty of time to get out of the way if you want to play that game. Good luck anyway. I'm on the hard in Antigua and fingers are crossed.

[Muckle Flugga]

Originally Posted by poiu

The first of the season in the eastern Caribbean. TS Danny is now upgraded to a Hurricane. Current forecast is for a cat 1 to pass over Antigua on Monday morning.

Plenty of time to get out of the way if you want to play that game. Good luck anyway. I'm on the hard in Antigua and fingers are crossed.

Thnks for the heads up. Where are you? Jolly?

[poiu]

Originally Posted by Muckle Flugga

Thnks for the heads up. Where are you? Jolly?

North Sound. You haven't got back round already have you?

[Muckle Flugga]

Originally Posted by poiu

North Sound. You haven't got back round already have you?

Ha ha. No. My boat's still on the hard in Phuket. I have been sailing in the North Atlantic in the past few months though. I have lots of friends in Antigua and area. A fellow skip's just posted his dilemma about being in BVI. Been trying to advise on that, as 4 of the 6 models are showing a direct hit there.

[poiu]

Originally Posted by Muckle Flugga

Ha ha. No. My boat's still on the hard in Phuket. I have been sailing in the North Atlantic in the past few months though. I have lots of friends in Antigua and area. A fellow skip's just posted his dilemma about being in BVI. Been trying to advise on that, as 4 of the 6 models are showing a direct hit there.

There's no rest for the wicked.

Yes, the NHC are a bit south of the average of the models, but they are the primary resource for the area, so I'd give them a higher weighting. Forecasters talk about it being small, so a small area of high winds and with possibilities for an early reduction in intensity. But, they have got it wrong before now by quite a bit. Lots of time for things to change.

[Muckle Flugga]

Originally Posted by poiu

There's no rest for the wicked.

Yes, the NHC are a bit south of the average of the models, but they are the primary resource for the area, so I'd give them a higher weighting. Forecasters talk about it being small, so a small area of high winds and with possibilities for an early reduction in intensity. But, they have got it wrong before now by quite a bit. Lots of time for things to change.

Yes indeed on all counts!

[sailon46]

You still have time if you are by your boat to head South to the 12 deg latitude. I took the boat to Curacao this year and not Grenada where I was last year. Danny is the first one there's another one coming off Africa and so on and so on. I was in Guadeloupe took 4days and 3 nights to have a milk run to Bonaire beautiful there. Then on to Spanish waters Curacao.
Run South friends it will be an active one and they expect a real ugly one between now and end of October.

[LEOCAT66]

Small isn't always less destructive, as was proven by CAMILLE in '69. She was wrapped very tight, produced winds over 200 and made landfall only a few miles from that of Katrina. Unlike Katrina, not very much wind from Camille in NOLA.

[poiu]

Danny is now upgraded to cat 2, yet the forecast wind at landfall in Antigua is downgraded to storm force. Doesn't sound right to me. I'd plan for worse.

[Hud3]

This is the NHC's reasoning for the drop from H2 to TS...

Danny is currently in an environment of light vertical wind shear.
However, it is about to encounter increasing upper-level
southwesterly flow associated with a trough over the northeastern
Caribbean, with the shear forecast to increase to over 20 kt by 96
hours. This, combined with the abundant dry air remaining along the
forecast track, should cause Danny to weaken below hurricane
strength as it approaches the Caribbean islands.

However, they freely admit that their strength forecasting is not as accurate as their forecasts of the paths of tropical systems.

I kept my boat on Antigua during two hurricane seasons when I lived on Nevis. Here she is in Captain Bailey's boatyard in Falmouth, strapped down in a steel cradle that was further attached to the earth below. Bailey's and Jolly Harbour are both excellent options for summer storage.

[a64pilot]

I think Katrina started this way? I wouldn't discount it just yet.
I remember Camille well, it really "wacked" the Fl Panhandle

[Hud3]

Yeah, I was living in Tallahassee when Camille came through. Not as much wind as further west, but buckets of rain.

This is the time of the season for the "Cape Verde storms", the ones that begin to form SE of Cape Verdes and roll west like bowling balls with the Caribbean islands being the pins. Once through the island chain, they tend to curve to the NW toward the SE states.

I sailed and lived in the eastern Caribbean for eight years. During the tropical storm season, I read everything the NHC posted on their website, every day. I was really impressed with two things. First their candidness when they weren't sure of the current forecast, and second, the gradual improvement in the accuracy of their weather products. I think they really do a great job.

[RTB]

Danny upgraded to a Cat 3 now. Hopefully, he fizzles. Good luck to everyone in the path.

Ralph

[LEOCAT66]

I lived through both storms in Slidell, LA. and it was very obvious to me, from up close, that from the damage, Camille was the more powerful storm, but in a much smaller confined area. I cannot even fathom a storm the size of Katrina with the wind power of Camille.

[poiu]

It's an amazing rate of increase going on. From a tropical storm at 5:00 am yesterday to a cat 3 at 5:00 pm today. With that rate of increase and to a level at each stage worse than the prior forecast it doesn't look good, yet it is true they are still forecasting a rapid decline in intensity back down to a TS in less time. Let's hope it turns out so. I will be impressed if it is, but I don't believe It will.