HURRICANES BERYL & DEBBY

[Kettlewell]

Beryl:

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Beryl is currently a Category 3 hurricane.
The first planes scouted the hurricane this morning.

NHC/NOAA issued this “Discussion” 20 minutes ago:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../282033.shtml?

“ Data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters this morning
indicate that Beryl continues to rapidly intensify. Based on the
data collected, the minimum pressure has fallen significantly to
964 mb and the maximum wind speed is now up to 105 kt….

…. Beryl is expected to be an extremely dangerous Category 4
hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands…..

….. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a
life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves are expected
when Beryl passes over portions of the Windward Islands with the
highest risk of the core in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and
Grenada beginning early Monday morning. Hurricane Warnings are in
effect for much of the Windward Islands…..”


Category 4 description:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

“Sustained winds 130-156 mph, 113-136 kt, 209-251 km/h
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

[MicHughV]

Beryl just upgraded to Cat 4...

[scherzoja]

One positive face of Beryl is that it is very compact; the > 64kt wind radii are very short (between 15 and 25 miles). Yes, going to be rather tough for the folks on the islands within this polygon, but for those on boats, one need not travel very far to get out of the strongest winds.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

[Ryban]

Too early to tell, but could be a direct hit on the Tobago Cays. Wonder how the reef will hold up there.

Huge exodus underway from Grenada.

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by Kettlewell

Beryl:

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore flow near where the eye makes landfall in the hurricane
warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.

Ivan's surge was 12'-18' depending on where you were. (Cat 3/4) 2004

Katrina's surge was 26' in certain areas(Cat 5) 2005

[kindrunnermike]

Originally Posted by scherzoja

One positive face of Beryl is that it is very compact; the > 64kt wind radii are very short (between 15 and 25 miles). Yes, going to be rather tough for the folks on the islands within this polygon, but for those on boats, one need not travel very far to get out of the strongest winds.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

Getting out of its path makes made more sense yesterday, is there enough time to head North if your in its path?

[Ryban]

Anyone directly in the path at this time probably doesn't have time to get out of the way safely, unless their boat is quite fast. Certainly not to the north. For people south of the storm, specifically Grenada, I think there is time but they need to leave now.

If people delay leaving any longer, they are likely to encounter a stiff westerly breeze slamming into a E-NE swell of 11-13ft for part of their trip, and if they delay too long, or are too slow, will likely have to beat into near gale conditions.

This presumes the eye passes in the Carriacou/Grenadines region.

[Sailor Sailor]

Originally Posted by scherzoja

One positive face of Beryl is that it is very compact; the > 64kt wind radii are very short (between 15 and 25 miles). Yes, going to be rather tough for the folks on the islands within this polygon, but for those on boats, one need not travel very far to get out of the strongest winds.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

I would like to correct your misrepresentations. Here they are:

“One positive face of Beryl is that it is very compact; the > 64kt wind radii are very short (between 15 and 25 miles).”
This is incorrect. The consistent wind speed of this Cat 4 hurricane is 130 m.p.h. That equals 112 kts., almost twice as much as you stated.

“[The] radii are very short (between 15 and 25 miles).”
This is incorrect. Hurricane force winds extend 30 miles (45 km). Tropical storm force winds extend 115 miles (185 km).

Here is the authoritative source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../302033.shtml?

There are a bunch of boats heading south now from Grenada to Trinidad. Many of them will soon be out in tropical force winds. Let’s hope they did not get their heavy-weather sailing advice or predictions from sailing forums. I suspect a number of boats in the Lesser Antilles will be destroyed and some sailors may die.

There have been posters here who have written that it does not matter what kind of boat you buy for blue water cruising. That is nonsense.

There have been posters here who have written that you no longer need storm sails, parachute anchors, or drogues, because you can now rely on weather forecast routing services, or those devices are now outdated. That is nonsense.

There have been posters here who have written that you can go out on your blue water adventures with no experience. Look at us YouTubers – we bought a boat with no experience! That is pure foolishness.

The sad thing is some new boaters do not realize how erroneous the advice is on some of these forums. Will the posters take responsibility for the deaths and property loss resulting from this storm? I sincerely doubt it. There is a consistent pattern of minimization of the risks associated with tropical storms on this forum.

[Montanan]

The rapidity of increase in intensity is remarkable, yet that seems to be becoming the norm what with the tremendous warming of the waters.

The hurricane center defines rapid intensification as an increase in maximum sustained wind speed of 35 mph or more in a 24-hour period. Beryl is the earliest major hurricane – defined as one that is Category 3 or higher – in the Atlantic in 58 years. The storm’s rapid intensification is very unusual this early into hurricane season.

"Beryl, the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season, intensified to an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph Sunday morning, as it made its way toward the Windward Islands.

Beryl is now the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record in the Atlantic Ocean and the only Category 4 storm ever recorded in the month of June.

Tropical storm-force winds are expected to reach the Windward Islands late Sunday or early Monday."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hurricane...042228865.html

As of 2 p.m. ET, Beryl was about 310 miles east southeast of Barbados, heading west.

The southern windward islands are going to get blasted.

Update:
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

[thomm225]

It's also very easy for folks at their keyboard to give advice on Hurricanes having only been through none or maybe a Cat 1 or Cat 2.

With Cat 1's and Cat 2's, we had hurricane parties in Pensacola 150' from the water.

This over maybe 7 hurricanes.

When Ivan Cat 3/4 came through, the place we had the hurricane parties at had 8' of water in the lower floors.

Luckily, I had moved by then to a place 30' high.

I still kept my beach cats at this apartment, but moved them a couple days before it hit to my new location.

No power for 2 weeks after it went through.

National Guard was called in to prevent looting, enforce the curfew, and act as traffic cops as the stop lights were all out .

Curfew was no one on the streets after 4 pm and before 8 am.

Ivan certainly something totally different from all the other hurricanes from 1995 until it came through in 2004.

[scherzoja]

Sailor Sailor,

I apologize for using symbols in my earlier message (i.e. "> 64 kt"); I should have been more explicit. I did not state that the maximum winds are 64 knots. I stated that the wind speeds that are greater than 64 knots (between 64 knots and the maximum recorded or predicted) is limited to a radius of between 15 miles and 25 miles from the center. Within these radii, one will encounter wind speeds from 64 knots up to the maximum.

That is what the highlighted data table explains, in my highlighted line, 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.

Wind speed greater than 64 knots extend 25 miles to the NE, 20 miles to the SE, 15 miles to the SW, and 25 miles to the NW.

"Hurricane force winds extend 30 miles (45 km). Tropical storm force winds extend 115 miles (185 km)"

Yes, you are correct,
Hurricane force winds: 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW <-- About 30 miles
Tropical Storm Force Winds: 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW <-- About 115 miles

These radii are the the basis for the colored, circular polygons on the NHC graphic that show the wind speed radii by quadrant.

Also note that beyond 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW from the center, the winds are no greater than 50 knots.

See also, for wind speed radii for this storm:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...radii#contents
This is the graphic that is represented by this data table:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

Here is the authoritative source at the NHC with these data.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../302032.shtml?

Cheers

[Seaworthy Lass]

There are still a surprising number of boats displaying AIS left in Grenada. There will also be a considerable number of vessels still there who do not leave AIS on when not moving. There were a lot in the latter category when we were there earlier this year. As well, there are a mass of boats that have been hauled out for hurricane season.

Some boats in the water have relocated to Port Egmont and tied to the mangroves, others are anchored or on mooring balls or in a marina. I guess maybe some owners are away or the boat or crew are simply not capable of heading to Trinidad.

It looks like a couple of hundred boats have headed south from Grenada over the weekend. A few stragglers departed not that long ago.

Impact time in the Windward Islands is in about 17 hours.

[Ryban]

I have my fingers crossed for the boats tied up or anchored well in Grenada being ok if the track holds, and the wind field doesn't expand too much, but we shall see.

More worrisome are the boats tied up in the mangroves in Carriacou, as these could get a direct hit. Hopefully they have tied their boats up and left for safer shelter on land.

It looks like most of the boats that are going to leave Grenada have already left, (most of the AIS marked vessels on MarineTraffic near the island, pointed south, are stale from 9-10 hours ago). I have been keeping my eye on a Catmaran called Zedna that looks like it left St. Lucia yesterday and is now just passing St. George's. Assuming they're going to Trinidad, they probably mark the last boat that isn't going to have a miserable trip.

If it were me in Grenada at this point and didn't feel comfortable sailing south, I'd probably try to get tied up in the mangroves in Ergot Bay, or possibly on the north end of Hog Island.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Ryban

….
It looks like most of the boats that are going to leave Grenada have already left, (most of the AIS marked vessels on MarineTraffic near the island, pointed south, are stale from 9-10 hours ago). I have been keeping my eye on a Catmaran called Zedna that looks like it left St. Lucia yesterday and is now just passing St. George's. Assuming they're going to Trinidad, they probably mark the last boat that isn't going to have a miserable trip.

Yes, you are right, I checked and they are stale. Most of the “stragglers” I referred to that look like they headed off recently actually left this morning.
It is about 80 nm from Grenada south to Trinidad. Winds have been favourable so that lot should have arrived or be nearly there thankfully.