HURRICANES BERYL & DEBBY

[Tin Tin]

History of storms 78 in last 150 years earliest H4 prior to this one was 4 July 2005.

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#m...libGUiOnRydWV9

[Ryban]

I don't think that's right -- previous record holder for the Atlantic basin was Dennis on July 8th, 2005, Beryl achieved Category 4 status more than a week earlier.

Also, there's a sailboat "Elysium" that has been taking a strange route. Currently they're just drifting. I hope they have a plan to steer south very soon, or tuck into one of the southern bays.

[scherzoja]

I wondered if someone would do that. It appears if that boat is hove to in the lee of the island and as the storm moves west, that boat will follow the wind shadow around the island.

[Ryban]

That's what I'm speculating as well. There are some posts on FB regarding him and people trying to get info -- he left when it was a Cat 3 -- so I don't think he's unaware of the severity of the storm.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by scherzoja

I wondered if someone would do that. It appears if that boat is hove to in the lee of the island and as the storm moves west, that boat will follow the wind shadow around the island.

I can’t see how that would work at all. The system is moving too quickly and Elysium is too close to the centre of Beryl. And where would he seek shelter when the westerly and southerly winds hit? The sea state will be ferocious if he attempts to go to the leeward sides of the island.

An Aussie boat (Smokyjim, a 12 m cat) headed south from Grenada this morning. He is now 10 nm out. I suspect he is not headed for Trinidad, as he will hit strong headwinds in about 5-6 hours, but instead he will turn east then north or possibly heave-to when that occurs. By then he should be at least another 40 nm further south, just out of the worst winds. Not great by any means, but I think it would be a better strategy even at this late stage than staying.

Good luck to everyone in the region.

[carstenb]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

I can’t see how that would work at all. The system is moving too quickly and Elysium is too close to the centre of Beryl. And where would he seek shelter when the westerly and southerly winds hit? The sea state will be ferocious if he attempts to go to the leeward sides of the island.

An Aussie boat (Smokyjim, a 12 m cat) headed south from Grenada this morning. He is now 10 nm out. I suspect he is not headed for Trinidad, as he will hit strong headwinds in about 5-6 hours, but instead he will turn east then north or possibly heave-to when that occurs. By then he should be at least another 40 nm further south, just out of the worst winds. Not great by any means, but I think it would be a better strategy even at this late stage than staying.

Good luck to everyone in the region.

Phew! Well, that is a strategy and it might work although depending on how far he can get from the eye, he will be looking at 50-70knt winds and swells as high at 5-6 meters. No fun at all.

[Kettlewell]

With the wall replacement cycle underway the max wind speed should dtop somewhat but the wind field should get larger.

[Seaworthy Lass]

The latest from NHC/NOAA, issued at 5 am local time suggests Beryl may impact as a Cat 3 hurricane:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../282033.shtml?

“Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

Beryl appears to be in the late stages of an eyewall replacement
cycle, with the Barbados radar showing a larger eye becoming
dominant with only a small portion of the inner eye left over.
While the earlier aircraft data suggested the system could have
weakened below 105 kt, the recent re-organization seen on radar and
satellite imagery support leaving the initial wind speed at 105 kt.
A pair of aircraft from the Air Force and NOAA should be in the
hurricane later this morning for another assessment of the
intensity and structure. It should be noted that while Beryl's
maximum winds have slightly decreased overnight, the area of
stronger winds has grown, so the hazards of the hurricane are likely
to affect a larger area.”


The track looks it will pass through Carriacou, the second largest island in Grenada. It is only 3-4 hours to impact.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by carstenb

Phew! Well, that is a strategy and it might work although depending on how far he can get from the eye, he will be looking at 50-70knt winds and swells as high at 5-6 meters. No fun at all.

I think it is likely Smokyjim will be in the <50 knots zone by then. Once conditions settle he will probably turn around and proceed to Trinidad.
See the map below:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...track#contents

Carsten, we are very, very relieved for you that the track has not veered north from the forecast. Some islands will, however, be hit catastrophically and my heart goes out.

[Kettlewell]

Beryl has strengthened again back to category 4. From the Weather Channel:

Current status: Beryl is moving quickly westward as it approaches the Windward Islands this morning. After briefly weakening to a Category 3 overnight following an eyewall replacement cycle, the hurricane has once again returned to Category 4 strength as of 8 a.m. EDT.

I​ts wind field has also grown larger since yesterday, with hurricane-force winds now extending out up to 35 miles from Beryl's center.

[GordMay]

"This is a terrible hurricane." ~ Ralph Gonsalves, the prime minister of St. Vincent and the Grenadines

It took ‘Beryl’ only 42 hours, to strengthen, from a tropical depression, to a major hurricane; a feat accomplished only six other times, in Atlantic hurricane history, and, with September 1 as the previous earliest date.

It had gained Category 4 strength Sunday, before weakening slightly, to a Cat 3, and further fluctuations in strength were forecast.
‘Beryl’ became the earliest Category 4 Atlantic hurricane on record, besting Hurricane ‘Dennis’, which became a Category 4 storm, on July 8, 2005

‘Beryl’ also marks the farthest east, that a hurricane has formed, in the tropical Atlantic, in June, breaking a record set in 1933.

Forecasters warned of a life-threatening storm surge, of up to three metres [10 Ft.] in areas where Beryl makes landfall, with 7.6 to 15 centimetres [3" -6"] of rain for Barbados and nearby islands and possibly 25 centimetres [10"] in some areas.

It is forecast to further weaken, by midweek, but still remain a hurricane, while heading toward Mexico.

[Escape Plan]

Friends on Grenada have been told to expect a 19 ft storm surge. Gonna be sporty there today.

[carstenb]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

I think it is likely Smokyjim will be in the <50 knots zone by then. Once conditions settle he will probably turn around and proceed to Trinidad.
See the map below:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...track#contents

Carsten, we are very, very relieved for you that the track has not veered north from the forecast. Some islands will, however, be hit catastrophically and my heart goes out.

Ange - the rain and winds have started here - but this will be no worse than a really bad gale

Apparently there is a 50 ft American monohull trying the same thing, running with the the quadrant. They are making 1.9 knots at the moment so I'm guessing they are hove to

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais...vessel:ELYSIUM

[Kettlewell]

From Jonathan Erdman on Twitter, @wxjerdman, https://x.com/wxjerdman/status/1807748957927329950

Only two other Cat. 4 #hurricanes tracked near/over #Grenada or St. Vincent/Grenadines:

- Ivan (2004): 952 mb/110 kts at nearest pass to Grenada, then Cat. 4'd just after that.

- Allen (1980): 948 mb/115 kts when center passed between St. Vincent and St. Lucia.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by carstenb

Ange - the rain and winds have started here - but this will be no worse than a really bad gale

Apparently there is a 50 ft American monohull trying the same thing, running with the the quadrant. They are making 1.9 knots at the moment so I'm guessing they are hove to

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais...vessel:ELYSIUM

That is the boat Ryban mentioned about 8 hours ago that at the time was milling around the SW corner of Grenada.
He may have suffered some damage and is incapable of moving. I think this is likely, as I can’t imagine why he is sitting there at the moment. If he was planning to ride it out 8 hours ago, surely he would have headed south ASAP then.

He may already have been evacuated off the boat and has left his AIS on to track it. I hope so.