HURRICANES BERYL & DEBBY

[mbianka]

Amazing video. I was planing on riding out Hurricane Sandy on my boat while at a mooring on Long Island. But, I could not get to the boatyard because of street flooding. After the storm I found my boat a thousand feet away from where I left it still attached to the mooring and luckily with no damage. I did ride out a nor easter onboard later which convinced me to never stay onboard in a big storm ever again, I'm sure the fellow in the video won't either.

[lestersails]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

That video will give me nightmares!

It also highlights that for the Leeward islands if it is clear 24/48 hours beforehand that a hurricane will hit very close, even having gone to the trouble of securing the boat in mangroves (or tying up in a marina) you need to consider the option of sailing/motoring south if you and your boat are capable. The hurricanes hitting this region tend to be small in diameter and a day’s sail south will generally get you well out of the way, even taking the error in forecast track into account.

With roughly a 30 nm error in the NHC’s track forecast 24 hours before, no boat on the south side of Grenada (about 33nm from the point of impact) should have considered themselves in a safe spot, yet for whatever reason many boats in the water still chose to stay put.

This graph shows how forecast error has improved over the years and how much it improves as a system gets closer. Importantly, five days out the error can be 150-200 nm so don’t put too much faith in the forecast track that far in advance. Anyone in that region is vulnerable to a direct hit:

This is a great point. And it reminds me that I deeply, deeply regret not jumping on a plane with my friend and sailing his beautiful 1 yo FP Lucia south when Irma was bearing down on the BVI. It was sunk and a total loss.

[Tin Tin]

Obviously no one will know the true stats, but if one had named storm insurance cover for Grenada one would not be as motivated to sail to Trinidad. Getting an insurance payout for some is not a bad outcome depending on individual circumstances. The underwriters for next year may well revise their limits.

[pointbob]

But on the up side people seem to be taking advantage of cheap damaged boats. Curious what this sold for.

https://youtu.be/YNCyYH1DLCM

[pianopraze]

97L coming. Strait up west coast FL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3yH4r3Z8EQ

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by pianopraze

97L coming. Strait up west coast FL

This system has been crawling along and developing slower than expected for a week now since it was first reported approaching the Leeward Caribbean islands last Friday.

It has been renamed Potential Tropical Cyclone 4. It will probably be named Debbie, but the latest report today is forecasting only a tropical storm.

We breathed a sigh of relief when it was apparent it was developing slower than expected. The images below show its progression and most current intensity forecast.

Screenshots are for:
Friday 26 July 1:32 pm EDT
Monday 29 July 1:29 am EDT
Friday 2 Aug 18:00z

[pianopraze]

Now Tropical Storm Debbie. Formed quickly. Will have longer in gulf, forecast to be Hurricane by landfall. Bigger than the state of Florida now. East (Florida side) getting strong winds and storms.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Us_t4iK8QnM

[GordMay]

NHC Advisories on Hurricane ‘Debby’ ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Debby

Tropical Storm "Debby" has been upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane, by the National Hurricane Center, presenting a 'major storm surge & flood threat', to the southeastern US, this week.
At 5:00AM, Hurricane Debby is 45 miles northwest of Cedar Key Florida and 70 miles south-southeast of Tallahassee Florida, with maximum sustained wind of 80 mph. It’s moving 10 mph to the north-northeast.

“A gradual decrease in forward speed with a turn toward the northeast and east is expected later today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will reach the Florida Big Bend coast later this morning. Debby is then expected to move slowly across northern Florida and southern Georgia late today and Tuesday, and be near the Georgia coast by Tuesday night." according to forecasters. "Weakening is expected after Debby moves inland."

[GordMay]

Tropical storm 'Debby' slammed Florida, with torrential rain, and high winds, contributing to at least four deaths, as it turned toward the Eastern Seaboard's low-lying regions, threatening flash flooding, with up to 30 inches [76 cm] possible, in some areas.

A 65 y/o truck driver, from Mississippi, died on Interstate 75, in the Tampa, Fla., area, after he lost control of his tractor-trailer, which flipped over a concrete wall, and dangled over the edge, before the cab dropped into the water, 40 Ft. [12m] below.

A 13-year-old boy died Monday morning, after a tree fell, on a mobile home, southwest of Gainesville, Fla.

And, in Dixie County, just east of where the storm made landfall, a 38-year-old woman, and a 12-year-old boy, died, in a car crash, on wet roads, Sunday night. The Florida Highway Patrol said, a 14-year-old boy, who was a passenger, was hospitalized, with serious injuries.

[GordMay]

The death toll rises, to at least 6 people, in Florida and Georgia, as tropical storm ‘Debby’ persists, over the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts.
The NHC said Debby would slow down, and move east, and off Georgia's shore, on Tuesday, before turning north, and drifting inland, over South Carolina, near Charleston, on Thursday.
TS ‘Debby’ 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

[GordMay]

Tropical Storm Debby has now made US landfall, for a second time, as it crossed the South Carolina coast, near Bulls Bay, in the early hours of this morning [1:45am ET, Thursday].

As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 33.2, -79.7 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

More ➥ https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goe...ormid=AL042024


Damaged trucks, at a car dealer, in Moncks Corner, South Carolina, on August 7, after a tornado hit the area.