Interesting statement from the NHC

[CareKnot]

Thanks to Captain Bill and sparrowhawk1 for the weather updates and the links! Good stuff!

Hi hellosailor. Uncertainty does seem to be the word of the day. Kansas might be nice, depending on how you get there and from where you start. Could be a bumpy ride.

Hey LEOCAT66. Depends on where in the Bahamas and how fast you can travel. From what I can tell, winds could clock to the NE by as soon as Sun night - Mon morning. We still don't know if it's going to rake Florida or directly hit the Bahamas. Not sure I'm the best person to give advice on this one.

Well me harties, one thing is sure. Judging by the wind projections, there is no place in the western Atlantic I'd like to be in a day or two. Youtube will have some new vids soon. Hope you aren't in 'em.

As I mentioned earlier, this weekend there are a substantial number of cruisers are attending the boat show and the Seven Seas Cruisers Association gam in Annapolis. Many were looking to make their way south after. Monday will be a time for seeking safe moorings instead. But we should remember the merchant ships that will be caught out in this mess. For those of you that pray, they could all use a few.

I suspect most cruisers will navigate as far upstream the nearest inland waterway as they can get. Nothing like an Atlantic coast hurricane to deliver storm surge and savage winds towards a lee shore and overfalls in the Gulf Stream.

[LEOCAT66]

Originally Posted by LEOCAT66

Wonder if is too late to head to FL from the Bahamas? We are not there but know many are.

Don't think I would try it at this late hour. Any little malfunction could turn that run into a total tragedy.

Bahamas is a tough place to be caught in these conditions. I remember last year when ERIKA and BRIAN aboard "RAINDOG" were caught out in the Bahamas. The were well prepared and were lucky to find the perfect anchorage just in time. Really miss their blog and hope they are OK.

[CareKnot]

Wishing you all the best brother.

Originally Posted by LEOCAT66

Don't think I would try it at this late hour. Any little malfunction could turn that run into a total tragedy.

Bahamas is a tough place to be caught in these conditions. I remember last year when ERIKA and BRIAN aboard "RAINDOG" were caught out in the Bahamas. The were well prepared and were lucky to find the perfect anchorage just in time. Really miss their blog and hope they are OK.

[LEOCAT66]

Originally Posted by CareKnot

Wishing you all the best brother.

And all the Best to you CareKnot. Love the Bahamas, but happy we are not there now.

[jimbunyard]

From the 5PM update at the NHC

"Late in the period the track model spread remains considerable, as
the global models continue to have issues depicting the synoptic-
scale pattern over the eastern United States and western Atlantic in
4-5 days. The evolution of the mid/upper-level low currently
centered over the Ohio Valley and how it interacts with the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge appear to be critical to the long-term
track of Matthew. The UKMET and ECMWF tracks have shifted westward
and slower by day 5, while the GFS has trended east. This has
narrowed the guidance envelope somewhat, but given the lack of
run-to-run consistency I'd hesitate to say that confidence in the
long-range track forecast has increased by any appreciable measure.
The new NHC track at these times leans heavily on continuity, and by
day 5 is close to the GFS/ECMWF blend and left of the latest
multi-model consensus aid TVCN.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida."

Emphasis mine.

I tend to stick to the NHC for my information because, as seen in the statement above, they use a combination of models to arrive at (what their forecasters) believe to be the best explanation of what they've seen so far, and hence what to expect the atmosphere to evolve into.

That they stress the uncertainty of their predictions of both track and intensity gives, for me anyway, a degree of confidence in their predictions.

Intensity is by far the hardest to predict, according to he NHCs' own admission, and performance, but it seems to me that they have improved immensely, almost exponentially (OK that's a little exaggeration) in their track predictions in the last 10-15 years...

That being said, it appears that this storm may be especially problematic, both track-wise and to a somewhat lesser extent intensity-wise, given the slow moving, almost stationary (at this time) low pressure systems over the southern great lakes and the Mideast coastal states.

The lack of much pressure gradient in the maps shown below, a typical feature for late summer in our area, might give a little insight into why both track and intensity are hard to predict at this time...





According to the latest satellite imagery, the storm is currently about 10 degrees across in it's 'sphere of influence'. In the last 7 hours or so, the eye appears to have moved about a degree to the north-northwest, or about 60 miles. Maybe this signals the beginning of the expected turn to the north, maybe its just an artefact of the cyclonic looping behavior this storm has been exhibiting after reaching major status... I'm hoping it is the former; the sooner it turns, the higher the chances are that it will move more to the east and remain (mostly) at sea.

However, the poor people of the Haitian peninsula, eastern Jamaica and Cuba are poised to get a beating, flash-flooding and rain pose a larger threat than the (relatively) isolated high winds. I hope they are prepared, but they are in a hard place right now...

On the current proposed track, the storm is expected to be due east of Abaco and slowing, on Sunday, after re-strengthening to a category 3 and passing directly over the central Bahamas. It then shows a slight turn to the west, so everywhere on the central US east coast had better start preparing, especially given the possibility for further strengthing. Maybe we'll be lucky and the persistent low/high system in the area will push on to the east in time to let the storm pass safely to the northeast...but forewarned is forearmed.

[Clamdigger]

I review these sites regularly for weather....
Tropical Tidbits
National Hurricane Center
Local Weather from AccuWeather.com - Superior Accuracyâ„¢

I was living on my boat in Port Antonio, Jamacia back in 1988 when Gilbert hit. I had been there for 7 months and was about to head to the Canal. I decided to stay put and made it safely through the Hurricane. The town was devestated though, and I stayed another 3 months helping friends and locals try to get their lives back to normal. Having experienced great losses myself from Hurricanes in past years, I can really empathize with those in the path of a Hurricane, be it a Cat 1 or Cat 5. Pray for those people who can't get out of the way.

[sparrowhawk1]

[QUOTE=jimbunyard;2225611]From the 5PM update at the NHC

"Late in the period the track model spread remains considerable, as
the global models continue to have issues depicting the synoptic-
scale pattern over the eastern United States and western Atlantic in
4-5 days. The evolution of the mid/upper-level low currently
centered over the Ohio Valley and how it interacts with the western
Atlantic subtropical ridge appear to be critical to the long-term
track of Matthew. The UKMET and ECMWF tracks have shifted westward
and slower by day 5, while the GFS has trended east. This has
narrowed the guidance envelope somewhat, but given the lack of
run-to-run consistency I'd hesitate to say that confidence in the
long-range track forecast has increased by any appreciable measure.
The new NHC track at these times leans heavily on continuity, and by
day 5 is close to the GFS/ECMWF blend and left of the latest
multi-model consensus aid TVCN.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida."

Emphasis mine.

I tend to stick to the NHC for my information because, as seen in the statement above, they use a combination of models to arrive at (what their forecasters) believe to be the best explanation of what they've seen so far, and hence what to expect the atmosphere to evolve into.

That they stress the uncertainty of their predictions of both track and intensity gives, for me anyway, a degree of confidence in their predictions.

Good points I will look further into NHC. here is a website that has spaghetti models from several different computer forecasting programs. to me I like to see which ones agree and which ones are the oddballs. But over the years I have seen the oddballs be the ones that are accurate so I don't totally throw them out . http://spaghettimodels.com/
What I like about this site is it puts a bunch of different forecasts on one site.

[sparrowhawk1]

This one shows NHC in red. Clearly in the middle of the pack. Most forecasts are looking better for Miami ( in fact better for everyone on the East Coast) but I'm still preparing for the worst.

[JPA Cate]

sparrowhawk, Good on ya. It costs little to prepare well, and that preparation informs you well of what you'll want to change, next time. Be well, and safe.

Ann

[sparrowhawk1]

Thanks Ann. I don't know about it costing little but it's money well-spent. I have the 2 of the largest fortresses I can handle , 60 feet of 3/8 inch chain , and well over a hundred feet three-quarter inch line for each anchor. I plan on using very heavy Sentinels maybe just big rocks. Not only does this add to the holding power the anchors but it keeps the nose into the wind which is critical for my boat which likes to sail on anchor in high winds.

[CareKnot]

Ann (and Capt Bill for that matter) may be on to something here. I don't think this one is going to behave as expected. I have watched the models unfold, watched the animations, read the projections and summaries till my eyes got blurry and I just had to stop.

The last thing I saw was the water temps in the path of Matthew. Notice how the temps top the scale just south of Cuba/Haiti? The area where is is projected to weaken most is the same place where it will be picking up the most energy from the surface. Look at the attachment and tell me what you think.

Y'know sparrohawk1, If I'm speaking out of turn, just say so. But Spanish Channel isn't that far from Miami/Dade. Under a day's sail from Biscayne Bay as I recall. It would put a lot of islands and reefs between you and those waves and a fair distance away from the weak side of this one. Granted, it is a shallow cut. Rapscallion (the first one) had a 4'5" draft full keel, but even at low tide we did fine.

It's been a few years since I've sailed that route and I need to check the charts to see what's changed (by way of depth soundings). But if memory serves, you would be leaving Florida bay on a screaming reach about the time that Matthew approached Miami. Putting the Everglades between you and Matthew is not a bad place to gunkhole in a blow. Judging by all the projections, you still have time. Just sayin'...

Originally Posted by sparrowhawk1

Thanks Ann. I don't know about it costing little but it's money well-spent. I have the 2 of the largest fortresses I can handle , 60 feet of 3/8 inch chain , and well over a hundred feet three-quarter inch line for each anchor. I plan on using very heavy Sentinels maybe just big rocks. Not only does this add to the holding power the anchors but it keeps the nose into the wind which is critical for my boat which likes to sail on anchor in high winds.

[zeehag]

according to my weather chasing gurus, once mattybaby crosses cuba they can achieve a better level of accuracy with the track. unfortunately that is a tad late for fla...so---PREP NOW donot wait for doom to find you--be ready for a cat 4 t o hit you center in miami, even if it doesnt. it never hurt to be prepared.

Storm2K


loook how beautiful matthew is...

oh btw--just got back from a quick visit to storm 2k--holy shaftersmon--matty boy gonna hurt..
cat 4 to just over cuba, turning already a lil westmore so fla is not gonnabe a happy place. so..

[CareKnot]

Looks like Matt is picking up speed and leaning West.