HURRICANE BERYL (previously Invest 95L then Tropical Depression Two)

[Seaworthy Lass]

The first system threatening the Lesser Antilles islands of the Caribbean this season is progressing across the Atlantic and is due to hit sometime on Monday (around 120 hours from now) most likely somewhere between St Vincent and Grenada.

It has been named Invest 95L. It may become Beryl.

This is the latest information from Tropical Tidbits:

[Seaworthy Lass]

Wednesday 7:25 PM EDT forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

There is a second system following in its tracks about 2 days behind it that is not showing up here yet:

[GordMay]

Computer forecast models increasingly suggest that tropical wave, “Invest 95L” may encounter less wind shear than usual.
If it can also avoid ingesting too much dry, sinking, dust-laden air, from the Sahara Desert, it could develop into [at least] a tropical depression, as soon as later this week, before it arrives in the Lesser Antilles, later Sunday or Monday.
One other factor, favouring development, is ocean warmth, in this part of the Atlantic Basin, is still at record high levels, for this time of year.

Increased rainfall, and gusty winds, will likely affect the Lesser Antilles, by late Sunday or Monday, regardless of how much this system organizes.

Tropical development east of the Lesser Antilles, [where Invest 95L is located] in June, is unusual, but has happened, in recent years, including 2023.
Last June, tropical storms 'Bret', then 'Cindy', each developed, well east of the Lesser Antilles, in less than a week's time. It was the first time, on record, two tropical storms formed east of the Lesser Antilles, during June.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Computer forecast models increasingly suggest that tropical wave, “Invest 95L” may encounter less wind shear than usual.
If it can also avoid ingesting too much dry, sinking, dust-laden air, from the Sahara Desert, it could develop into [at least] a tropical depression, as soon as later this week, before it arrives in the Lesser Antilles, later Sunday or Monday.
One other factor, favouring development, is ocean warmth, in this part of the Atlantic Basin, is still at record high levels, for this time of year.

Increased rainfall, and gusty winds, will likely affect the Lesser Antilles, by late Sunday or Monday, regardless of how much this system organizes.

Tropical development east of the Lesser Antilles, [where Invest 95L is located] in June, is unusual, but has happened, in recent years, including 2023.
Last June, tropical storms 'Bret', then 'Cindy', each developed, well east of the Lesser Antilles, in less than a week's time. It was the first time, on record, two tropical storms formed east of the Lesser Antilles, during June.

Bret passed over St Vincent on the 22nd June last year and Cindy was hot on its heels for a while, but then swung north substantially so the two tracks diverged markedly (see image below). Bret unusually moved south a bit just before it passed through the Windward islands (this shift had not been forecast).

This year again there is another system developing a couple of days behind 95L (for now it seems weaker).

At the moment wind shear and Sahara dust are making strong development unfavourable, and sea temperature (not only surface but at depth) is strongly favouring development. Wind shear is stronger in the northern part of the Lesser Antilles so if it moves north the system may weaken.

As I understand it, the track is affected by how quickly the system strengthens while in the Atlantic. The stronger, the more likely it is to spin off north. The other major factor affecting track is the precise location and strength of the high that tends to sit around the Azores. The slow development of the low and location of the high are keeping the likely track low (latest forecasts have it hitting the Windward islands a touch higher than yesterday, but still a bit below St Vincent with strongest winds north of it).

What a difference a few days make:

[Seaworthy Lass]

All the weather channels and YouTubes are discussing either depression or a tropical storm passing over the Windward islands around 100 hours from now (lunchtime Monday EDT).

Yet this latest graph from the National Hurricane Center dated 06z (1:00 am EDT) Jun 27 2024 indicates most models forecast it will be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by then.

Why the discrepancy?

[Messing About]

I’m spending this season in “dry run/drill mode”, meaning I’m not in the Caribbean yet but I’m pretending I am at anchor at Culebra, PR.

As each system develops, I am tracking and deciding (virtually) to stay or move. With 94L, and now 95L behind it, my decision to stay out looks to have been the right one.

Once I get there, hopefully it feels like I’ve made these decisions before.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Messing About

I’m spending this season in “dry run/drill mode”, meaning I’m not in the Caribbean yet but I’m pretending I am at anchor at Culebra, PR.

As each system develops, I am tracking and deciding (virtually) to stay or move. With 94L, and now 95L behind it, my decision to stay out looks to have been the right one.

Once I get there, hopefully it feels like I’ve made these decisions before.

Being familiar with what websites and YouTube channels to check helps a lot, as well as learning what affects the severity and tracks of these systems and where they originate if they hit the Lesser Antilles. Also seeing beforehand how reliable or unreliable forecasts can be, even when many models agree is valuable.

I arrived in the Caribbean with little knowledge of this and my learning curve was a steep one last hurricane season. It was spent at anchor in the Grenadines.

Try playing the games from a few different locations, not just Culebra and it does your head in, but is a good exercise .
eg As this system approaches, what would you progressively do if you were in Guadeloupe, Martinique and Canouan? When and where would you dash south if you were in Grenada?

Opinions on CF will vary a lot. Check out the advice members were given when Tropical Storm Bret was approaching last year. There were widely differing opinions on when to move, as well as most suitable anchorages in the area if staying put in a certain location.

[Seaworthy Lass]

At 17:00 EDT this system was upgraded and named Tropical Depression TWO.

The system is still in the mid Atlantic, but conditions favourable for development are stacking up.

The National Hurricane Center have issued a hurricane warning (currently Category 1 or 2) for Barbados and the lower portion of the Lesser Antilles stretching from the bottom of Martinique down to well below Grenada. The system is only small, but with it still being nearly 3 days out, there is uncertainty regarding precisely where it will hit, although around St Vincent seems likely at the moment.

It is forecast to impact the chain of islands around lunchtime Monday.

These two websites give valuable information:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#95L

The NOAA “Discussion” section is particularly valuable:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../282033.shtml?

The latest update states:
“Typically, the atmospheric environment is unfavorable for
intensification in this portion of the Atlantic basin in late June.
However, the overall atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear
conducive for steady strengthening during the next few days.
Accordingly, the official forecast calls for strengthening and shows
the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday
and then a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. It
should be noted that some of the model guidance is quite aggressive
and a fair amount are higher than the official forecast. For
example, the hurricane regional models show the system becoming a
major hurricane and the GFS model shows the system deepening below
970 mb prior to reaching the Windward Islands.”

There is still a second system behind it following a similar path at the moment.

[thomm225]

Originally Posted by Messing About

I’m spending this season in “dry run/drill mode”, meaning I’m not in the Caribbean yet but I’m pretending I am at anchor at Culebra, PR.

As each system develops, I am tracking and deciding (virtually) to stay or move. With 94L, and now 95L behind it, my decision to stay out looks to have been the right one.

Once I get there, hopefully it feels like I’ve made these decisions before.

It's best to stay in dry run mode during hurricane season because if a big one comes along you can run but you can't hide especially if you were in the Gulf when Hurricane Ivan enter in 2004.

I was in Pensacola and the storm came right in Pensacola Pass.

It was a lot different than the other 7 hurricanes as it was a Cat 5 until the last minute but the 12"-18" surge was still there even though the wind dropped to Cat 4 or so.

Point is the big ones are just that. Big/large cover many, many 100's of miles.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Friday 21:00 EDT update:

The system has just been renamed Tropical Storm Beryl. It is still only about 2/3 of the way across the Atlantic.

Conditions are lining up in its path for it to continue developing. It seems that this may be a high end Cat 1 or even a Cat 2 hurricane when it hits the Windward Islands.

[GordMay]

T/S “Beryl” is expected to become the first hurricane [potentially maxing out at nearly a Cat 3] of the 2024 season, a statistic that usually isn’t reached until Aug. 11.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Barbados, with additional watches and warnings likely coming for the Windward Islands [Grenada, Saint Lucia, Martinque and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines], later Saturday.

‘Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion’ ~ NWS National Hurricane Center
500 AM AST [0900 UTC/Zuu] Sat Jun 29/24
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/290241.shtml

Originally Posted by NHC

“... Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the western tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean Sea are abnormally favorable for
strengthening, and the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model are showing a significant chance of rapid intensification. The new intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands, and it now calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt in 60-72h. This peak could be conservative, as several of the intensity guidance models forecast Beryl to become a major hurricane. After 72 h, the storm is expected to encounter increasing westerly shear, which should cause some weakening.

Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and
dangerous storm surge and waves...”

[Seaworthy Lass]

New NHC/NOAA discussion issued at 11am ETD:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres.../282033.shtml?

“The new NHC intensity forecast explicitly calls for rapid strengthening and shows Beryl becoming a major hurricane before moving across the Windward Islands.”
ie Category 3 or higher

There is negligible discussion here regarding this, but anyone in the region, both cruisers and land dwellers must be stressing.

The Marine Traffic map of boats with AIS in the region shows a fair number of pleasure boats (pink) still heading south to Grenada, some down to Trinidad.

The first image below shows the map last Thursday and the second just now:

[Seaworthy Lass]

At 11am NOAA also added a Hurricane Watch (pink) for the the region Grenada to St Lucia and a Tropical Storm Watch (yellow) for Tobago and Martinique.

Edited to add: by 2pm local time Dominica was included in the Tropical Storm watch.

The M indicates a Major hurricane is forecast (category 3+) before it hits the chain of islands:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...track#contents

[Ryban]

There's another wave behind this storm that will need to be watched as well, potentially impacting the same islands depending on how quickly either of these systems strengthen.

Really getting 2017 vibes on this season, and it's only June.

[Seaworthy Lass]

4:45 pm local time:
Upgraded to Hurricane Beryl.

This is earlier than expected.
I will change the title.