Panama-Polynesia what causes the alantic trade winds traspases panama Itsmo

[CombatDiver]

Hi
Im waiting for favourable conditions to leave Panama towards Polinesia
I dont trust in predict wind, I prefer to observe local time and then wait for the same condition.

Today, this days exactly ( 11 apr and so on) ,there is a chance. A Phenomenon, sort of call it, ATWTPI "Atlantic trade winds traspases Panama itsmo"

From yesterday until 4 days, more or less, there is a N, coming from the other side, the Atlantic. With this N and its tongle of 10-20 knots , the ITZ is cutted, and more or less , according to wind, we can reach galapagos Lat, and almost Long, as first is N and then comes to NW. The heading is almost perfect, first SSW, then SW and then W. At the end , in the middle , close to galapagos, connects with the light S winds of suthamerica, and after galapagos, Trade winds to W


My question: Which are the phenomenons in maybe NorthAmerica, or middle Atlantic to allow this to happen, in order to foresee this , if there is going to repeat again?


And even better. if this is that it is happening now, what are the preconditions, to foreseee that?


As far as I observed now and these days, in this iteration, there is a big Low N USA going NE, with strong change of presure in short space. And at the same time a H in the atlantic, but like more close to USA, more close to that L, than normal ( I guess is the ethernal Azores H), which normaly enlong fron E to W and more separated of America. That maybe provokes that I observed a huge orange even red, tail in the middle of the atlantic , in the trade winds. The Panama itsmo tongle would be more or less influenced or consecuence of that

Also I see Ls in this area , S panama and N Colombia, that can be an extra to reinforce the situation, I dont know

Someone who can explain this behavior?

thanks a lot

[Munoz]

Sorry, probably not exactly the awnser your looking for:

If you're talking about the Caribbean trades jumping the isthmus and giving you easterlies out into the Gulf of Panama, this seems to occur mostly February-April on a roughly 10-14 day cycle. Both the ECMF and GFS models predict it reasonably well. I believe it's related to the "Caribbean winter-reinforced trades" if you want to search for more information on its origins.

The bad news is that from the beginning of April it tends get weaker and weaker and by May the dominant wind is often South westerlies. So the pulse you are talking about could well be the last, or 2nd to last one this year.

I wouldn't wait around too long if I was you, while this passage is doable year round, you may find yourself beating all the way down to the equator if you wait too long....,

[CombatDiver]

Originally Posted by Munoz

Sorry, probably not exactly the awnser your looking for:

If you're talking about the Caribbean trades jumping the isthmus and giving you easterlies out into the Gulf of Panama, this seems to occur mostly February-April on a roughly 10-14 day cycle. Both the ECMF and GFS models predict it reasonably well. I believe it's related to the "Caribbean winter-reinforced trades" if you want to search for more information on its origins.

The bad news is that from the beginning of April it tends get weaker and weaker and by May the dominant wind is often South westerlies. So the pulse you are talking about could well be the last, or 2nd to last one this year.

I wouldn't wait around too long if I was you, while this passage is doable year round, you may find yourself beating all the way down to the equator if you wait too long....,

HI. thanks for your answer. YES, Im talking about this, and YES, I am experiencing this maybe between january or february in a cicling between 2 week , yes!. Maybe even before because someone has taken it to go through polinesia, or a similar phenomena. to make the same game.

Ok thanks. Yes my thinking is to leave as soon as possible, thanks for the info. Do you know what is the mechanic about that phenomenon?, I mean what had happened in atlantic side?

thanks!

[belizesailor]

In terms of timing, I agree with Munoz...go now! The seasonal Trades will start to weaken soon in Panama and flow across the isthmus will become less likely. By May-June the seasonal Trades will be gone and so will the wind across the isthmus.

I think what causes this phenomena is the same conditions that cause the major "gap winds" to blow across all of Central America. When a frontal boundary causes high enough pressure on the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea side of Central America then these gap winds form. The classic example is the Tehuantepecer wind in Mexico. The gap wind that forms in Panama is less well studied, and less violent, but it is common to see them blowing at the same time (Panama also has minor gap winds that form along the Pacific coast).

If you look at NOAA synoptic charts you can see the front that is causing this phenomena.

In terms of forecast models for the region I find ECMWF to be quite good. You can access it thru Windy.

Attached is a screen shot of Windy. I drew in the approximate frontal boundary (yellow line). You can see all the gap winds flowing into the Pacific from Central America.

Regardless, you are likely to have light and variable winds most of the way to the Galapagos. You will not get into steady SE Trade Winds until you are well past the Galapagos.

If you want the reassurance of a pro weather router then try Met Bob. He is very knowledgeable about this region of the Pacific. https://metbob.com/



Carry lots of extra fuel & Go!

[CombatDiver]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

In terms of timing, I agree with Munoz...go now! The seasonal Trades will start to weaken soon in Panama and flow across the isthmus will become less likely. By May-June the seasonal Trades will be gone and so will the wind across the isthmus.

I think what causes this phenomena is the same conditions that cause the major "gap winds" to blow across all of Central America. When a frontal boundary causes high enough pressure on the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean Sea side of Central America then these gap winds form. The classic example is the Tehuantepecer wind in Mexico. The gap wind that forms in Panama is less well studied, and less violent, but it is common to see them blowing at the same time (Panama also has minor gap winds that form along the Pacific coast).

If you look at NOAA synoptic charts you can see the front that is causing this phenomena.

In terms of forecast models for the region I find ECMWF to be quite good. You can access it thru Windy.

Attached is a screen shot of Windy. I drew in the approximate frontal boundary (yellow line). You can see all the gap winds flowing into the Pacific from Central America.

Regardless, you are likely to have light and variable winds most of the way to the Galapagos. You will not get into steady SE Trade Winds until you are well past the Galapagos.

If you want the reassurance of a pro weather router then try Met Bob. He is very knowledgeable about this region of the Pacific. https://metbob.com/



Carry lots of extra fuel & Go!

Thanks a lot BelizeSailor

Yes,
1º is the same phenomena that tecuantepec and so on. SO they called "gap winds" , thanks!
2º Yes, I have find that your yellow line matches with the phenomena I say in my post, the boundary between a huge L in N-central USA, and the H more close to North America than middle Atlantic

Ok. Hope, there would be another opportunity in 2 weeks!
Thanks a lot, you really help me

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by CombatDiver

Thanks a lot BelizeSailor

Yes,
1º is the same phenomena that tecuantepec and so on. SO they called "gap winds" , thanks!
2º Yes, I have find that your yellow line matches with the phenomena I say in my post, the boundary between a huge L in N-central USA, and the H more close to North America than middle Atlantic

Ok. Hope, there would be another opportunity in 2 weeks!
Thanks a lot, you really help me

You're welcome!

Personally, I would not wait 2 weeks if possible.

[CombatDiver]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

You're welcome!

Personally, I would not wait 2 weeks if possible.

You mean, leave asap, even without wind?

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by CombatDiver

You mean, leave asap, even without wind?

Yes, winds are not likely to get any better the longer you wait. In fact they will likely get worse.

The area from Panama to Galapagos is likley to be light and variable no matter when you leave. Its not going to get better.

[belizesailor]

Attached is the approximate route we took a few years ago to the Galapagos. It is overlayed on current forecast data for Tuesday 16th. Not bad.

Its not likely to get much better than this unless you wait till next year!

[CombatDiver]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

Attached is the approximate route we took a few years ago to the Galapagos. It is overlayed on current forecast data for Tuesday 16th. Not bad.

Its not likely to get much better than this unless you wait till next year!

Many thanks!!!!