SPACE WEATHER

[GordMay]

Space Weather

Does anyone, except Newhaul, pay any attention [have interest in] space weather?

Space weather refers to the conditions and processes, occurring in space, which have the potential to affect the near Earth environment.
Space weather processes can include changes in the interplanetary magnetic field, coronal mass ejections from the Sun, and disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field.
The effects of space weather can range from damage to satellites [GPS], to disruption of HF Radio communications and power grids, on Earth.

An explosion of activity, on the Sun, causes charged particles to be released, which can eventually result in disturbances in the magnitude, and direction of, the Earth’s magnetic field.
Geomagnetic storms can last hours or days, and they can directly affect operations, that rely on the Earth’s magnetic
field, such as compass use for navigation, magnetic surveys done by mineral exploration companies, etc.
Geomagnetic storms can cause [unexpected] electric currents, in long conductors, like power lines. The effect of geomagnetic storms, on power systems, is illustrated by the Hydro-Quebec blackout in 1989. In 90 seconds, the entire Hydro-Quebec power grid collapsed. The blackout left over six million people in Quebec, Ontario, and northeast United States, without power, for nine hours.

Disturbances in the ionosphere can also decrease the precision of locations,
determined by Global Positioning Systems [GPS], used for navigation.

Satellites are particularly sensitive to space weather effects, and may experience radiation damage, memory upsets, or phantom commands.
One example is a space weather disturbance, on January 20, 1994, that caused the failure of the Anik E1 and E2 satellites, Canada’s main communications satellites. The failure caused loss of cable television service, failed transmission between media outlets, and a loss of telephone service in northern Canada.

Radio blackouts*, due to solar flares, can last from minutes to hours.
Radio blackouts are classified using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration R-Scale.
* Radio Blackouts Scale ➥ https://spaceweather.sansa.org.za/sp...lackouts-scale

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center
➥ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Solar Storm and Space Weather - Frequently Asked Questions
➥ https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/s...her/index.html

[GordMay]

Multiple R1-R2* radio blackouts observed [July 17 & 18]
The production of three [back to back] M flares, one of them surpassing the M5 threshold, places the sun activity at high level, during the past day, between 11 UTC yesterday, and 11 UTC today.
Flaring production, during the period, was 17 flares, four Ms and 13 Cs.
The largest was an M5.7 flare, by sunspot AR3363, blasted at 00:06 UTC, on July 18, 2023.

This is the breakdown of the M flares:
M2.7 flare by AR3363 at 22:54 UTC on July 17, 2023
M5.0 flare by AR3363 at 23:34 UTC on July 17, 2023
M5.7 flare by AR3363 at 00:06 UTC on July 18, 2023, the largest
M1.5 flare by an unnumbered active region on the northeast limb (edge) blasted at 06:56 UTC on July 18, 2023.

Each M flare provoked a correspondent HF Radio blackout* [primarily impacting the 3 to 30 MHz band]:
R1 (minor) at 22:57 affected an area over Hawaii
R1 (minor) at 22:35 UTC affected an area over the west of Hawaii
R2 (moderate) at 00:06 UTC affected an area over the Pacific Ocean
R1 (minor) at 06:56 UTC affected an area over India


See ➥ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/multi...kouts-observed

➥ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/multi...kouts-observed

[Chotu]

Unfortunately , yes. Lol

I had to work in solar terrestrial physics.

That was the area that was being funded when I was at NASA. They were not so big on Mars and the moon or theoretical physics. They were interested in saving money while still getting science done. SMEX missions.

I worked on the sensors and specifically the electronics side and software to process the hits in the microchannel plate (MCP) plasma counters on some of these spacecraft used to measure solar wind/flares/CMEs.

I worked on several missions that are still in the news. It was more rewarding than anything else I’ve done. But I wished I had been able to work on pure theoretical physics. Not much funding in that area however. Hoping to self fund my way back into theoretical physics.

From what I understand, we are pretty close to the solar maximum right now. It’s a time when there is the most solar activity.

Check out the Carington Event.

[GordMay]

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast, Issued: 2023 Jul 18 0030 UTC

Including: Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 18 2023 0006 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 18-Jul 20 2023

Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul 20
R1-R2 50% 50% 45%
R3 or greater 20% 20% 15%

Rationale: There is a chance of M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate)
and a slight chance of X-class (R3; Strong) events due to the latest
decreased flare and activity trends, along with the departure of Region
3363 over the next 1-2 days.

More ➥ https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Chotu

... From what I understand, we are pretty close to the solar maximum right now. It’s a time when there is the most solar activity.
Check out the Carington Event.

We're now in Solar Cycle 25, which began in December 2019, when, in retrospect, solar scientists were able to tell the moment of solar minimum. Not surprisingly, solar maximum is predicted to occur midway through Solar Cycle 25, so between November 2024 and March 2026; and most likely July 2025.

Hello Solar Cycle 25 ➥ https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle

[CaptTom]

Yes, I've been following this. I want to see some aurora at least once!

There are apps and services you can sign up for which will notify you when aurora activity is possible in your area. For me, so far every time they go off, it's cloudy here. Some day.

[GordMay]

Carrington Event [1859], is the largest solar storm ever recorded.
On Thursday, Sept. 2, 1859, at roughly 11:18 a.m., in the town of Redhill, outside London, Richard Carrington was investigating a group of dark specks on the sun, known as sunspots; when he detected, what he later described as "a singular outbreak of light which lasted about five minutes."
This was the first solar flare ever seen and reported, according to a 2016 study [1]; and it is the largest solar storm ever recorded.

There is evidence that the sun may be capable of "superflares", that can unleash 10 times or more energy than the Carrington Event.
For example, in a 2021 study [2], in the Astrophysical Journal, scientists using NASA's, now-retired, Kepler space telescope found that over the course of four years, 15 sun-like stars released 26 superflares, packing a wallop up to 100 times greater than the Carrington Event.
A 2020 study [3], in the Astrophysical Journal, found similar result,s during the first year of NASA's ongoing TESS mission. Superflares, about 10 times more energetic than the Carrington Event, may happen about every 3,000 years, and ones about 100 times more energetic, may occur about every 6,000 years.

Carrington Event ➥ https://scijinks.gov/what-was-the-carrington-event/

[1] “The grand aurorae borealis seen in Colombia in 1859" ~ by Freddy Moreno Cárdenas et al
➥ https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...73117715006109

[2] “Statistical Properties of Superflares on Solar-type Stars: Results Using All of the Kepler Primary Mission Data” ~ By Soshi Okamoto et al
➥ https://iopscience.iop.org/article/1...57/abc8f5/meta

[3] “Superflares on Solar-type Stars from the First Year Observation of TESS” ~ by Zuo-Lin Tu et al
➥ https://iopscience.iop.org/article/1...38-4357/ab6606

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by GordMay

We're now in Solar Cycle 25, which began in December 2019, when, in retrospect, solar scientists were able to tell the moment of solar minimum. Not surprisingly, solar maximum is predicted to occur midway through Solar Cycle 25, so between November 2024 and March 2026; and most likely July 2025.

Hello Solar Cycle 25 ➥ https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle

Wow. They are actually treating it like weather now. Interesting. I’m surprised it’s at weather.gov now.

As you can tell from my post I am unfortunately not interested in this stuff enough to follow the max/min because I was forced to work in it. So I definitely don’t follow it. I just know all about it from experience and having to work in it making the spacecraft components and binning the microchannel plate events. Also, my plasma physics and controlled fusion course back in school was highly slanted toward this because the faculty had those connections to this area of research.

Anyway, Tom: if you ever take a vacation to Europe, try to leave in the evening. Do one of the overnight flights that lands in the morning. You’re almost guaranteed to see an Aurora. I see one almost every single time. Just stay on the left side of the plane and look out the window. I’ve only seen two of them in northern New England. You’re right. It’s always cloudy when they are active it seems like or maybe it’s just always cloudy ha ha.

[JPA Cate]

@ Capt. Tom,

I loved seeing the northern lights when we were graced with them. We did it in an old VW camper van, and all our kids got to see them.

Our struggle to see the southern aurora has been pretty funny. We subscribe to an outfit that tells us when to look. And so far, all but three times, it has been cloudy, foggy, or rainy!

Anyhow, I wish you well with your hopes, hope it's coming soon for you.

Ann

[Donnybrook]

Dr. Tamitha Skov has a YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@TamithaSkov/featured) dedicated to space weather. She publishes a forecast weekly.

Here's a recent video: https://youtu.be/nwtCBH04bIg