Trade winds cruising in an El Nino year

[zeehag]

maybe noaa is wrong about it being a super el nino , then, belle isle??? mebbe we should regroup the noaa folks and tell em what is???

omygods the idea that noaa could possibly be wrong about something...lol

but, then, we havent lived thru this 'cane season yet, have we.......

[sneuman]

Most of the models now are predicting an ENSO temperature rise of between 1C and 1.5C lasting until the beginning of 2016: http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/u...04/figure4.gif

[belle-isle]

Thanks sneuman for pointing it out. Indeed the latest post from Bob McDavitt now points out the same thing. He generally mentions that El Niño patterns tend to draw climate features equatorwards and soften the trade winds.

As for zeehag, thanks for your, shall I say ... constructive and helpful attitude... Also would like to point out that punctuation and capital letters exist for a reason. But maybe people are better off not fully understanding you anyways so keep up the good work.


Sent from my iPhone using Cruisers Sailing Forum

[Stevens 47]

Originally Posted by sneuman

Most of the models now are predicting an ENSO temperature rise of between 1C and 1.5C lasting until the beginning of 2016: http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/u...04/figure4.gif

This is an interesting blog suggesting that its possible to see a +3C passing the +2.5 El Nino years of 82-83 and 97-98.
California Weather Blog

[sneuman]

What is not clear to me, regardless of how strong an event occurs (assuming it does) is how long it will last and how long it takes for near-normal conditions to resume. So, if hypothetically, one were to expect to be on a Panama-Marquesas passage at the prescribed time of year in 2016 -- say March -- would the El Nino event expected to last until the end of the 2015 or perhaps a bit longer, still be putting the hurt on typical weather patterns. My sense is that the answer is yes.

[sneuman]

Now that we know that in fact we will have a strong El Nino, I'd be interested in reopening this thread.

[Stevens 47]

Could be a fast transpac and large surf in south facing beaches on the west coast, if this model holds up https://www.windyty.com/?2015-07-19-...715,-117.157,4

[zeehag]

AS the western pacific both north and south have been being SLAMMED by storms, perhaps this very well could be a less desirable time to sail summer trades to pacific southwest.
but that is your call.
should be a good sail with lots of excitement, but, then, you KNEW this was to be a WEAK ha ha ha ha el nino year.
is like the posting in lat 38 by richard hisself that a cane is gonna hit lost angeles next week. rodlmffao. he didnot research. nor did you. i did my research. i am out here in epac-land.
btw, neumann, el nino lasts 1nyear, may to june the next.
has been that way since the first one.
research is important, as it is knowledge

[StuM]

Originally Posted by zeehag

btw, neumann, el nino lasts 1nyear, may to june the next.
has been that way since the first one.
research is important, as it is knowledge

Nope, they can last for anything from 6 to 18 months .

Take a look at the historical data at Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data: ENSO Impacts on the U.S. - Previous Events

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by zeehag

AS the western pacific both north and south have been being SLAMMED by storms, perhaps this very well could be a less desirable time to sail summer trades to pacific southwest.
but that is your call.
should be a good sail with lots of excitement, but, then, you KNEW this was to be a WEAK ha ha ha ha el nino year.
is like the posting in lat 38 by richard hisself that a cane is gonna hit lost angeles next week. rodlmffao. he didnot research. nor did you. i did my research. i am out here in epac-land.
btw, neumann, el nino lasts 1nyear, may to june the next.
has been that way since the first one.
research is important, as it is knowledge

Not true, Zee. El Ninos have not always lasted that long. In most cases, in fact they don't last that long. This one looks like it will be different. Anyway, you need to do the research. El Ni?o and La Ni?a Years and Intensities

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by sneuman

Not true, Zee. El Ninos have not always lasted that long. In most cases, in fact they don't last that long. This one looks like it will be different. Anyway, you need to do the research. El Ni?o and La Ni?a Years and Intensities

mebbe you should have been watching as they surround your area in fun and frolic since 1973 as have i.. you are in floriduh, noit west coast usa or in th e vicinity of th e chilean current.
mebbe you should have a weather hobby

[mstrebe]

To the original question, El Ninos tend to dry out the Indonesian/Western Pacific region and move that moisture to the Eastern pacific (CA, MX, and South America) through the middle latitudes, generally making the extreme latitudes a little calmer. So there's a lot of rain on a somewhat consistent basis.

I'm a bit baffled as to the effects on sea state however. My own experience at sea during an El Nino was of extremely heavy weather (we were near the equator) but most people report calm seas to doldrums during El Nino periods. "Lack of consistent tradewinds, cycling between becalmed and storm periods" is probably the truth of the matter.

I've heard that it produces more cyclones in the Pacific and moderates them in the Atlantic. I was peripherally involved in a cyclone study at sea (as a seaman) in the Pacific during the 91/92 moderate El Nino where we spent three weeks going into three different cyclones so NOAA scientists could release instrumented weather balloons into them. El Nino's had just been "discovered" and they were hot to get data on them. Made for some very interesting sea stories.

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by zeehag

mebbe you should have been watching as they surround your area in fun and frolic since 1973 as have i.. you are in floriduh, noit west coast usa or in th e vicinity of th e chilean current.
mebbe you should have a weather hobby

Well, you're wrong, Zee, as we've pointed out. So, let's move on and discuss this like intelligent adults.

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by mstrebe

To the original question, El Ninos tend to dry out the Indonesian/Western Pacific region and move that moisture to the Eastern pacific (CA, MX, and South America) through the middle latitudes, generally making the extreme latitudes a little calmer. So there's a lot of rain on a somewhat consistent basis.

I'm a bit baffled as to the effects on sea state however. My own experience at sea during an El Nino was of extremely heavy weather (we were near the equator) but most people report calm seas to doldrums during El Nino periods. "Lack of consistent tradewinds, cycling between becalmed and storm periods" is probably the truth of the matter.

I've heard that it produces more cyclones in the Pacific and moderates them in the Atlantic. I was peripherally involved in a cyclone study at sea (as a seaman) in the Pacific during the 91/92 moderate El Nino where we spent three weeks going into three different cyclones so NOAA scientists could release instrumented weather balloons into them. El Nino's had just been "discovered" and they were hot to get data on them. Made for some very interesting sea stories.

interesting. Thanks for your insight.

[SV Windrush II]

Hello guys, so I'm taking off from Seattle bound for California next month and then crossing to Hawaii, then Philippines. The hope is to reach the Philippine sea after the typhoon season is over. Usually in October, but we have seen typhoons in November still hitting the Philippines.
Any good info would be great. Thanks