Tropical Storm Chantal Approaching Caribbean

[Crimea Cruiser]

NOAA reports Tropical Storm Chantal Approaching Caribbean

Tropical Storm CHANTAL

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by Crimea Cruiser

NOAA reports Tropical Storm Chantal Approaching Caribbean

Tropical Storm CHANTAL

The hurricane forecasters are pretty good at showing where a tropical event is going to go (even Charley was within what they called the "cone of concern" when it veered south and came in at Punta Gorda instead of Tampa Bay).

What they're not so good at is predicting how strong the storm will be.

If she stays on her current projected course, I'll be moving my boat to a more sheltered marina on Thursday.

[Crimea Cruiser]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013
500 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013

CORRECTED TO ADD TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEARING CHANTAL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 53.9W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO
ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* GUADELOUPE
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI

INTERESTS IN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF CHANTAL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST. CHANTAL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHANTAL SHOULD REACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES EARLY TUESDAY...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
LATER ON TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...AND REACH PUERTO RICO ON
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

RAINFALL...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[barnakiel]

Yep. It has been brewing out there in the middle of the pond for a while. Good job NOAA/NHC.

At this point (Monday night) expected not to reach TC1.

b.

[SeaKing]

My wife wanted to plan a trip to the BVI's in late July, I was leary of agreeing because of it being the start of the "season". I agreed and kind of put it out of my mind. Well here I am now looking at the little storm out there and we are planning to go on the 17th, next week on Wednesday to stay through the 1st of August.

We kind of have plans to sail to St Martin , Antigua and stay a couple of days and head back to the BVI's to finish out. Now I'll be glued to the National Hurricane Center's forecast to see if I want to venture out from the BVI's. I see a couple of little swirls on the sat image off of Africa, that stuff is headed this way with potential to develop.

now, I'm off to NHC for the latest.

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by SeaKing

I see a couple of little swirls on the sat image off of Africa, that stuff is headed this way with potential to develop.

.

This site gives the earliest indications of something happening.

You will see that the one off Africa is quite densly purple.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Atlantic Basin - Satellite Services Division - Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

You see stuff a few days earlier than any other site.. well before it turns into an Invest

[bobconnie]

Yall might try wonderground.com/tropical/ We have been useing it down here in the Gulf area for over 10 yrs and have found it to be almost perfect in there computer projections! Really helps to have 5-6 days to make a good plan !! Just sayin it's sure helped us and we live in Hurrycane Alley!!

[Crimea Cruiser]

Originally Posted by bobconnie

Yall might try wonderground.com/tropical/ We have been useing it down here in the Gulf area for over 10 yrs and have found it to be almost perfect in there computer projections! Really helps to have 5-6 days to make a good plan !! Just sayin it's sure helped us and we live in Hurrycane Alley!!

wunderground.com/tropical

[Bluewaters2812]

We have been watching this TS and continue to do so. We are directly affected by it.

[atoll]

Originally Posted by Bluewaters2812

We have been watching this TS and continue to do so. We are directly affected by it.

that is just a baby storm!

nothing to worry about unless your boat is in an exposed anchorage

[marc2012]

Hope it stays that way.Some babies become some big bad mothers.marc

[Bluewaters2812]

Originally Posted by atoll

that is just a baby storm!

nothing to worry about unless your boat is in an exposed anchorage

Tks Atoll mate. It is at anchor but well protected.

[tbodine88]

Living in Antigua while tropical storms were comming through either to the north or south of us, I noticed there wasn't much wind around the island. There was one race I participated in where we basically just drifted around until every one got tired and we were towed back to the dock for refreshments. So going there with the expectation of sailing, you may be in for more motoring than sailing. Unless you are in the path of the storm, and then it may get exciting.

I sailed from Antigua to Guedeloupe when a tropical depression went through, there were storms on the horizon, and a water spout in view. But we sailed in sunny windy (15-30knots) weather.

Good luck

[SeaKing]

Thanks Mark, I'll mark and remember that one

Originally Posted by MarkJ

This site gives the earliest indications of something happening.

You will see that the one off Africa is quite densly purple.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Atlantic Basin - Satellite Services Division - Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

You see stuff a few days earlier than any other site.. well before it turns into an Invest

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by marc2012

Hope it stays that way.Some babies become some big bad mothers.marc

I'm with you. They do a pretty good job of forecasting where a hurricane is going to go. They really don't do a very good job of judging what strength it will be.

And if we've learned anything from "Extra-tropical" Storm Sandy, it is that our category system for tropical systems is inadequate.