US coasts sea level rise 10 to 12 inches by 2050

[MicHughV]

I think the definition or term if you wish..."scientist" is bandied about a little too much...

What makes a "scientist" a " scientist".....does one go to University for this....a degree in Scientology....???? how does one become a "scientist"....I wanna know....is there an online course ??? Can anyone be a "scientist"???....what is the minimum education qualities to become a " scientist"???...who bestows this honorific on a person.....another " scientist ??

I ponder these things.....was watching one of these "universe" shows recently.....planet earth....in the grand scheme of the universe...the universe as we know it...amounts to less than a grain of sand in all the worlds beaches...us humans that occupy this grain of sand are mere microbes in the grand scheme of things....I seriously think it is presumptuous to think that we know much of anything.....let alone try to "predict"...something that may....or may not....happen in 50 years.

But whatever happens.....good or bad....or nothing....people will survive and adapt...50 years from now....people will say..." it was always like this"...

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by captmikem

For Global Distruction might I suggest Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.)

"The World is Going to End In Twelve Years If We Don’t Address Climate Change"

That quote is out of context, but that's standard practice for climate change denial. Anyway, science denial (covid, vaccines, climate, etc) is just a part of the larger problem - we're on track for social and political breakdown that will probably clobber us in less than 12 years. Stupid will beat climate change to the finish line.

Buy your boat now and get out there, while there's still a there to get out to.

[Ericson38]

College of William and Mary analyzed Tangier Island (Chesapeake) shoreline from 1933 onward.

The island has been constantly shrinking in size, so not all due to sea level rise-

https://scholarworks.wm.edu/cgi/view...ontext=reports

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

....was watching one of these "universe" shows recently.....planet earth....in the grand scheme of the universe...the universe as we know it...amounts to less than a grain of sand in all the worlds beaches...us humans that occupy this grain of sand are mere microbes in the grand scheme of things....

You'd think that that humbling perspective would make us a bit less inclined to sh1t the nest, since there's no other grain of sand that we microbes can hop to...but no. Ostrich mode. Accelerating extinctions. Drill baby drill.

But whatever happens.....good or bad....or nothing....the richest people will survive and adapt...50 years from now....people will say..." it was always like this"...

FTFY. Being in the yacht-owning class, not much to worry about on CF. Yay us.

[LakeSuperior]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Relativesea level change is how the height of the ocean rises or falls, relative to the land at a
particular location.

In contrast,absolute sea level change refers to the height of the ocean surface above the center of the earth, without regard to whether nearby land is rising, or falling.

Right to the point in that we can't do much about the rise and fall of the land. Short from not building massive structures on swampy land or emptying aquafers, etc. The warming radicals are again disingenuous because they inevitably use the relative change numbers to imply absolute change. I believe it is because the relative SL change numbers look much worse so to further the agenda.

For example, the 10 to 12 inch rise in 30 years from the NOAA report is an average for the coastal US, Hawaii, Alaska, and the Caribbean. They project the rise on the west coast to be 4 to 8 inches. CONUS is tipping..

I think most of the numbers in the above responses to the OP refer to relative SL change averages for some chunk of geography. The reality is the melting ice arguments should be made wrt the absolute sea level change. Miami is going to sink into the ocean even if the absolute SL change is zero.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Ericson38

College of William and Mary analyzed Tangier Island (Chesapeake) shoreline from 1933 onward.

The island has been constantly shrinking in size, so not all due to sea level rise-

https://scholarworks.wm.edu/cgi/view...ontext=reports

From the link you posted; the rate of sea level rise has doubled in 2 decades. I know that is not the only factor.

However, the recent tidal update for much of the Bay shows an increase of almost twice that rate over the last 20 years.

[Ericson38]

Originally Posted by jackdale

From the link you posted; the rate of sea level rise has doubled in 2 decades. I know that is not the only factor.

We used to live directly across that island on the Virginia side. Our house got water close to foundation many times.

[rsvmille]

Plenty of time to complete my refit.

[MicHughV]

Florida is kinda unique...you can dig a hole most anywhere and encounter water in the first 3 feet...geologists tell me that the peninsula of Florida is really a series of sand dunes...
Interestingly, the entire east coast of Florida (as well as most of the US east coast) is made up of a series of low barrier islands..the highest point in Florida is a mere 345' above sea level. Most beach communities are about 8-12' above sea level.
Beach re-nourishment programs is an ongoing thing here up and down the coast. Some beach communities have the ocean literally lapping at their front door...several beach communities are in dire straights....
I know of areas on the west coast of Florida and Florida panhandle that are equally bad...

A hurricane hit anywhere on the coast here means extensive flooding.

Rising ocean water is not nearly as much a problem as wind driven ocean wave beach erosion. A hurricane can eat a 100 yds of beach in one gulp.....see it every year....a winter nor-easter can do the same....one day you have beach...next day ocean is in your front room....

Some beach roads get obliterated in these storms...there today...gone tomorrow...but people like living at the beach....roads get rebuilt...beaches get re-nourished...homes get seawalls or are rebuilt...etc...life goes on......

[GordMay]

Climate Change Indicators: Sea Level
This indicator describes how sea level has changed over time. The indicator describes two types of sea level changes: absolute and relative.


After a period of approximately 2,000 years of little change, global average sea level rose throughout the 20th century, and the rate of change has accelerated in recent years.

When averaged over all of the world’s oceans, absolute sea level has risen at an average rate of 0.06 inches per year from 1880 to 2013. Since 1993, however, average sea level has risen at a rate of 0.12 to 0.14 inches per year—roughly twice as fast as the long-term trend.
Relative sea level rose along much of the U.S. coastline between 1960 and 2020, particularly the Mid-Atlantic coast and parts of the Gulf coast, where some stations registered increases of more than 8 inches. Meanwhile, relative sea level fell at some locations in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. At those sites, even though absolute sea level has risen, land elevation has risen more rapidly.
While absolute sea level has increased steadily overall, particularly in recent decades, regional trends vary, and absolute sea level has decreased in some places. Relative sea level also has not risen uniformly because of regional and local changes in land movement and long-term changes in coastal circulation patterns.
More ➥ https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicato...sea-level#ref2

Interesting side note: On average, the ocean floor has been gradually sinking since the last Ice Age peak, 20,000 years ago.


Global Average Absolute Sea Level Change, 1880–2019

[boatman61]

I get the impression Covid has run outa steam..
Back to...

[rsvmille]

Originally Posted by boatman61

I get the impression Covid has run outa steam..
Back to...

Right on schedule...

[Montanan]

Well since I initiated this thread, if sea levels are rising then it seems that may change anchoring locations, depths and substrate types; do I get to spin the thread's topic towards the implications of future proofing one's chosen anchor types and rode scope ratios?



Let's refrain from making any discussion about the correlation of climate change deniers and Covid. The CF moderators will appreciate a thread not spiraling down that rabbit hole.

I learned to sail in Lake Merrit, Oakland a tidal brakish estuary / urban lake in the center of the city. I have seen a modest rise in the mean water level during the last 50 years because there are markers at the boat house that one can readily reference to. The city landscapers have indicated that they have seen salt water intrusion into the civic parklands along the shoreline of the beautiful lake / estuary.

I have also seen such occur in the Oakland estuary and in Alameda. The homes that are at lowest elevation on the landfilled island have water intrusion into their basements and crawl spaces. Could be a combination of sea level rising and localized land subsidence / settling. I have family that live on the Alameda isle, and the water table is not very far below their foundation. Liquification is a definite probability during any sizeable earthquake along the S.F. Bay landfilled regions.

Seen a lot of global warming in Montana over the last thirty years, the grass in my yard is still green in mid-February as the ground has only frozen a few times this year. Have only used my snow shovel once so far this season. Each year it gets a tad warmer and less snowpack and the fire season gets longer. The glaciers in Glacier National Park have continued to recede noticeably but then the ice was several thousands of feet deep over my home in the last ice age, so receding glaciers has been happening for thousands of years, very humbling to look up to the hanging glacier valleys in the mountain range outside of town that are 3,500 feet higher elevation which smaller glaciers merged into the massive glacier.

That being said there are these memes applicable from Montana to share.

[Montanan]

Tampa Bay Times, St. Petersburg, Fla.
Here’s what Tampa Bay can expect from new sea level rise projections

February 16, 2022

https://www.yahoo.com/news/tampa-bay...194200761.html

Snipets:

Florida’s near-future of higher sea levels and more flooding is coming into sharper focus, according to a new government report, even as scientists say worst-case conditions appear to be further off than initially thought — giving people additional time to prepare. Across the United States, sea levels are expected to jump 10 to 12 inches in the next three decades — about the same rise that took place over the last 100 years, according to researchers at several federal agencies and universities, led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Damaging floods could happen 10 times as often, scientists say.

In Tampa Bay, a regional advisory panel has recommended that local governments plan for a range of sea level rise between roughly 11 and 31 inches from 2000 to 2050, based on a similar federal study published five years ago. The new projections, announced Tuesday, would raise the low end of that spectrum to just over a foot and drop the high end to about 19 inches in St. Petersburg. “It’s a shift in the timing, not so much in the height,” said Gary Mitchum, associate dean at the University of South Florida College of Marine Science, who served as a reviewer for the federal report. Mitchum is a member of the regional science advisory panel, which he said will assess the data and revise its guidelines as needed.

An interesting analogy of a weather forecast compared to a climate forecast.

Though the latest study lops off a previous “extreme” projection for sea level rise over the next few decades, Mitchum said people could still face similar conditions after 2100. He said Floridians should think of the estimates like a “cone of uncertainty” for approaching hurricanes. “We’ve taken that cone, and we’ve narrowed it down,” he said. “There’s still going to be a hurricane. There are still going to be impacts. But we have a much better idea now of what they are.”

. . .

Compared to past research, the new report frames discussions more around a 30-year window, relatable to people as the length of a standard mortgage.

[jackdale]

Just out

The United States is expected to experience as much sea level rise by the year 2050 as it witnessed in the previous hundred years. That's according to a NOAA-led report updating sea level rise decision-support information for the U.S. released today in partnership with half a dozen other federal agencies.

The Sea Level Rise Technical Report provides the most up-to-date sea level rise projections for all U.S. states and territories by decade for the next 100 years and beyond, based on a combination of tide gauge and satellite observations and all the model ensembles from the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report projects sea levels along the coastline will rise an additional 10-12 inches by 2050 with specific amounts varying regionally, mainly due to land height changes.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0217142440.htm