US coasts sea level rise 10 to 12 inches by 2050

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by StuM

Even though the ice retreated long ago, North America is still rising where the massive layers of ice pushed it down. The U.S. East Coast and Great Lakes regions—once on the bulging edges, or forebulge, of those ancient ice layers—are still slowly sinking from forebulge collapse.
Forbulge collapse is one of the larger causes of ground movement in the United States. Many places in the Eastern U.S. have been sinking for thousands of years and will continue to sink for thousands more. In fact, estimates say land around the Chesapeake Bay will sink as much as half a foot over the next 100 years because of the forebulge collapse.

Is this what a 21st Century forebuldge looks like?

Definitely a lot of localized compression happening there.

[StuM]

> Weather and climate of course are entirely different things.

Originally Posted by jackdale

And they use entirely different models.

Yep, the weather models bear some semblance to reality

[MicHughV]

Some many years back, one of my college professors was going on about the fact that planets "know" about other planets. He went on to explain, but most of it went over my head. In recent years, I've heard about this again, but as before, know little about it. In essence, I believe it's about "the law of attraction" and "gravity"...this unknown force that keeps us all glued to this planet despite known laws to the contrary...and the ability...for instance of the sun and moon to affect levels of the ocean by "attraction" to give us daily tides......in other words.....the sun and moon "know" that planet earth is there....kinda weird...if you think about it, that the shiny blob in the sky at night has the ability to suck water up...."attraction", what exactly is this "attraction" force?? Men on the moon experience almost no gravity, yet the moon can exert a force on planet earth's oceans to lift them several feet.

...but "gravity" keeps the ocean here on this planet. We all know about gravity, but can't explain it.

But it's really no more weird for one person to be "attracted" to another, often for no particular reason to any nearby bystander.

But I digress.

Digging more into this morass, are space agencies ability to " slingshot" satellites out into space, using "unseen" forces, too complicated to even begin explaining here, but they appear to have a pretty good handle on it.

Planet earth dances a pretty well known and documented path, hats of to all those that have figured all this out. We have summers and winters, various times when the sun and moon are closer, ad infinitum. Same folks have figured out to the smallest decimal point, where the earth will be at all times.

But, nobody has really figured out the weather. Many theories exist, the el nino affect, as an example.

Sea level rise predictions remains a " theory" rather than a known predicament, this is why there is always a range....10-20" for instance....if they really know, they'd say...10.25" on July 25th....50 years out puts it past most of our lifetimes...so that is also a safe bet as we will not be around to dispute it, nor will the originator have to explain it.

And using past documented information does not necessarily mean it will continue that way.

At the end of the day, I will remain rather non-plussed by it all.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by StuM

> Weather and climate of course are entirely different things.



Yep, the weather models bear some semblance to reality

Climate models are rather accurate

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by StuM

Usual oversimplification from the usual alarmist.


https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/...djustment.html

Even though the ice retreated long ago, North America is still rising where the massive layers of ice pushed it down. The U.S. East Coast and Great Lakes regions—once on the bulging edges, or forebulge, of those ancient ice layers—are still slowly sinking from forebulge collapse.
Forbulge collapse is one of the larger causes of ground movement in the United States. Many places in the Eastern U.S. have been sinking for thousands of years and will continue to sink for thousands more. In fact, estimates say land around the Chesapeake Bay will sink as much as half a foot over the next 100 years because of the forebulge collapse. Other big contributors to ground movement in the U.S. include earthquakes and subsidence. Subsidence is when the ground sinks, either due to natural causes or when resources like water, gas, and oil are pumped out of the ground.

Thanks for that. I was avoiding getting too technical.

Forebulge collapse simply compounds the sea level rise along the South East Atlantic seaboard.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by StuM

> Weather and climate of course are entirely different things.



Yep, the weather models bear some semblance to reality

Some more reality for you.

Global Climate Models have successfully forecast:

That the troposphere would warm and the stratosphere would cool.
That nighttime temperatures would increase more than daytime temperatures.
That winter temperatures would increase more than summer temperatures.
Polar amplification (greater temperature increase as you move toward the poles).
That the Arctic would warm faster than the Antarctic.
The magnitude (0.3 K) and duration (two years) of the cooling from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption.
They made a retrodiction for Last Glacial Maximum sea surface temperatures which was inconsistent with the paleo evidence, and better paleo evidence showed the models were right.
They predicted a trend significantly different and differently signed from UAH satellite temperatures, and then a bug was found in the satellite data.
The amount of water vapor feedback due to ENSO.
The response of southern ocean winds to the ozone hole.
The expansion of the Hadley cells.
The poleward movement of storm tracks.
The rising of the tropopause and the effective radiating altitude.
The clear sky super greenhouse effect from increased water vapor in the tropics.
The near constancy of relative humidity on global average.
That coastal upwelling of ocean water would increase.

[Ericson38]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Climate models are rather accurate

Open a search engine (Microsoft Bing) and type "Climate Model Accuracy" and select IMAGES.

I don't your resulting graph. I'm sure its there though.

There are hundreds of graphs for the various IPCC models through the decades with their differing predictions for each Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs).

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Ericson38

Open a search engine (Microsoft Bing) and type "Climate Model Accuracy" and select IMAGES.

I don't your resulting graph. I'm sure its there though.

There are hundreds of graphs for the various IPCC models through the decades with their differing predictions for each Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs).

Sorry It is a follow up from Zeke Hausfather related to this study

Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections
Zeke Hausfather,Henri F. Drake,Tristan Abbott,Gavin A. Schmidt
First published: 04 December 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085378

You can often find images by right clicking on the image and clicking on Search Google for image. That works in this case.

[NPCampbell]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Historical data for reference.

Working in tech, the very first thing I look when evaluating a problem is the quality of the data.

This graph shows a 10cm trend over 30 years with what appears to be mm accuracy.

However, the TOPEX/Jason satellite only has a published accuracy of +/- 5cm or a range of 10cm!
TOPEX/Jason fact sheet

The Jason series of satellites has a published +/- 3.3 cm accuracy or a range of 6.6cm.
Jason-3 Summary

I found no published precision numbers and precision is independent of accuracy. However, before I put any value into this graph, they are going to have to explain how they are getting mm precision when the published accuracy of 6.6-10 cm almost covers the entire range of their captured data.

[Bill Seal]

E = mc2
(+/- 3dB)

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by thinwater

Two thoughts.


1). 50 years ago, my dad told me there were three types of news:
* Oh, the glory of it,

* Oh, the horror of it, and

* Oh.

Distributed as:

2%

97.99%

0.01%

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by jackdale

And they use entirely different models.

But Climate activists are happy to point to weather events and scream CLIMATE CHANGE.

[seandepagnier]

Originally Posted by NPCampbell

I found no published precision numbers and precision is independent of accuracy. However, before I put any value into this graph, they are going to have to explain how they are getting mm precision when the published accuracy of 6.6-10 cm almost covers the entire range of their captured data.

With enough samples and averaging you can achieve a much higher level of accuracy.

[Caleb_Grey]

Originally Posted by seandepagnier

With enough samples and averaging you can achieve a much higher level of accuracy.

And by putting your #1 source of data on top of a volcano you can sample whatever you want

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Caleb_Grey

And by putting your #1 source of data on top of a volcano you can sample whatever you want

Who claims that the atmospheric CO2 measurements, taken at the Mona Loa Observatory, are corrupted by the nearby volcano?
Are the USGS & NASA just spewing the "party line"?

According to NASA, and the USGS [for instance], the measurements of the amount of atmospheric CO2, made at the Mauna Loa Observatory, are accurate and uncontaminated by any emissions from the volcano.
The measurements show a steadily increasing trend of CO2 concentrations in the air, a trend that is confirmed by many measurements made elsewhere.

NASA ➥ https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/bl...oa-co2-record/

USGS ➥ https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/h...nized-landmark

Mauna Loa is the largest active volcano on the planet. It last erupted in 1984, when a lava flow came within 7.2 km (4.5 mi) of Hilo, the largest population center on the island.

The Mauna Loa Observatory [MLO] protrudes through the strong marine temperature inversion layer, present in the region, which separates the more polluted lower portions of the atmosphere, from the much cleaner free troposphere. The undisturbed air, remote location, and minimal influences of vegetation, and human activity, at MLO, are ideal for monitoring constituents in the atmosphere, that can cause climate change.

The carbon dioxide data from the Mauna Loa Observatory constitute the longest record of direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere. They were started by C. David Keeling, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, in March of 1958 at a facility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. NOAA started its own CO2 measurements in May of 1974, and they have run in parallel with those made by Scripps since then.

The Mauna Loa Observatory baseline CO2 concentrations agree very well with flask measurements, taken at a similar latitude around the world, which confirms that the volcanic CO2 does not affect our final results. These measurements all show significant increases in CO2 over the last few years.

More ➥ https://blogs.scientificamerican.com...keeling-curve/

And ➥ https://realitydrop.org/myths/7