US coasts sea level rise 10 to 12 inches by 2050

[geoleo]

Originally Posted by GordMay

NATURE communications Peer Review ➥ https://www.nature.com/ncomms/editor...es/peer-review

Are you Mr Gord-a "peer"? The Brit Lords call call each other "Peers" I think they are trying to say "equals". But nothing is equal.

[Baby tug]

I don’t know if it’s true or not but what I do know is i don’t care if sea level rises a few feet over 50 years . Population has doubled in my lifetime and the more people the more regulation . The more I lose my freedoms , that I do Care about . I would worry about keeping your baby maker in your pants , I don’t like losing my freedom to population growth

[Montanan]

[QUOTE=Baby tug;3578852]I don’t know if it’s true or not but what I do know is i don’t care if sea level rises a few feet over 50 years . Population has doubled in my lifetime and the more people the more regulation . The more I lose my freedoms , that I do Care about . I would worry about keeping your baby maker in your pants , I don’t like losing my freedom to population growth[/QUOTE]

Baby, you be a portion of that statistic and thus part of the problem.

Might you propose a solution?

Just saying.

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by geoleo

Are you Mr Gord-a "peer"? The Brit Lords call call each other "Peers" I think they are trying to say "equals". But nothing is equal.

Peer reviewed means a science paper written by a scientist and reviewed by other scientists in the relevant field that comment on weaknesses in the paper so it can be revised prior to printing.

[GordMay]

Sea Level Rise ~ Smithsonian Ocean Portal Team
➥ https://ocean.si.edu/through-time/an...sea-level-rise

Understanding Sea Level ~ NASA Sea Level Change Team (made up of 70+ scientists)
➥ https://sealevel.nasa.gov/faq/13/how...-the-previous/

Earth 107: Coastal Processes, Hazards, and Society, Module 4: Sea Level Rise~ Penn State's College of Earth and Mineral Sciences'
➥ https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth107/node/524

Some Key Points from the above sources:
Please forgive me, for any errors and/or omissions, that follow, not the authors of the above learned tutorials.

During ice ages, a large volume of water is stored on land, in the form of ice sheets, and glaciers, leading to lower sea levels; while during warm interglacial periods, glaciers and icesheets are reduced, and more water is stored in the oceans.

• The link between carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and rising global temperatures, has been clear to scientists since the 1850s. Measurements show that there is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today, than at any other time in the past 1 million years ... that is, since the dawn of humankind.

• The last time Earth experienced a climate similar to today, was 120,000 years ago, in between ice-age episodes. Sea level then was at least ~6 m higher than today

• Sea levels typically vary by over 100 metres, during glacial-interglacial cycles, as the major ice sheets wax and wane, as a result of changes in summer solar radiation, in high northern hemisphere latitudes.

• Sea level has increased by more than 120 metres since the peak of the last ice age, ±20,000 years ago. As a consequence of NATURAL global warming, the rate of sea-level rise averaged ±1.2 cm per year, for 10,000 years, until it levelled off, at roughly today’s
position, ±10,000 years ago.

• Sea level stabilised over the last few thousand years, and there was little change between about 1AD and 1800AD

• Sea level began to rise again in the 19th century [±20 cm since then], and accelerated again in the early 20th century. Satellite altimeter measurements show a rate of sea-level rise of about 3 mm/year since the early 1990s – indicating a further increase in the rate of rise.

• Given the observed trends in sea level, and in global warming, it is virtually certain that sea level will continue to rise, over the coming decades, due to increased loss of mass, from glaciers and ice sheets, and thermal expansion of ocean water.

• Projections of sea level, in a ‘worst case’ greenhouse gas emissions scenario, point to at least 80 cm of sea level rise by the end of this century.

• Continued greenhouse gas emissions will result in 1-3 metres of sea level rise, per degree of warming.

[AllenRbrts]

Originally Posted by GordMay

• Given the observed trends in sea level, and in global warming, it is virtually certain that sea level will continue to rise, over the coming decades, due to increased loss of mass, from glaciers and ice sheets, and thermal expansion of ocean water.

• Projections of sea level, in a ‘worst case’ greenhouse gas emissions scenario, point to at least 80 cm of sea level rise by the end of this century.

• Continued greenhouse gas emissions will result in 1-3 metres of sea level rise, per degree of warming.

Most people think the rise is only due to melting ice sheets, but actually the largest component of sea level rise is from thermal expansion caused by the ocean warming.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by AllenRbrts

Most people think the rise is only due to melting ice sheets, but actually the largest component of sea level rise is from thermal expansion caused by the ocean warming.

That may be debatable - I don't know.

Global sea level is currently rising, as a result of both ocean thermal expansion. and glacier melt, with each accounting for about half of the observed sea level rise, and each caused by recent increases in global mean temperature.

Earlier research, had suggested most of the modern sea level rise is a result of ‘thermal expansion’ of seawater. But a 2013 study [1], in the journal Nature Geoscience, suggested that, in recent years, melting ice may have been the main cause of sea level rise.

According to the IPCC 2007, for the period 1961-2003, the observed sea level rise, due to thermal expansion was 0.42 millimeters per year, and 0.69 millimeters per year due to total glacier melt (small glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets. Between 1993 and 2003, the contribution to sea level rise increased for both sources to 1.60 millimeters per year and 1.19 millimeters per year respectively (IPCC 2007).

The newer study [1] finds that, between 2005 and 2011, melting ice sheets and glaciers were responsible for about 75 per cent of sea level rise, while the effect of water warming and expanding played a much smaller role.

The study estimates that extra meltwater caused sea levels to rise by about 1.8mm per year, three times more than thermal expansion, which caused about 0.6mm of sea level rise per year. However, this study looks at what’s driving sea level rise over a pretty short time period. Climate studies usually draw conclusions from a few decades of data, to try and make sure that short-term natural climate cycles don’t hide long term trends – this one covers just eight years.

[1] “Contribution of ice sheet and mountain glacier melt to recent sea level rise” ~ by J.L. Chen et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1829

See also:
Melting mountain glaciers could account for nearly a third of the sea-level rise, that's occurred in the last 60 years, other research suggests.

“Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016" ~ by M. Zemp et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...icamerican.com

[GordMay]

“Blue Blob” near Iceland could slow glacial melting

Chilly seawater may slow ice loss, on the Iceland until, 2050, then warming and melting may accelerate.

A region of the North Atlantic Ocean has been dubbed the “Blue Blob”, by scientists, due to its abnormally cool temperatures, compared to the rest of the ocean. This peculiar ocean patch could have significant impacts on the surrounding region, and a study [1] says that it could slow the melting rate of glaciers, until 2050, before melting accelerates.

Researchers, from the American Geophysical Union, say the Blue Blob has mitigated atmospheric warming in Iceland, and is shielding many glaciers from unprecedented warmth. The Blue Blob’s presence was first noticed in 2011, after Icelandic glaciers experienced steady shrinkage, from 1995 to 2010.

In 2011, nearby glaciers, such as those in Greenland and Svalbard, continued to shrink, but the melt rate of some glaciers in Iceland significantly slowed. The Blue Blob was at its strongest during the winter of 2014-2015, when its oceanic temperature was roughly 1.4°C colder than usual.

The researchers say that the cooler waters, around the Blue Blob, are linked to lower air temperatures over the glaciers, in Iceland, and coincide with the slowed melt rate.

The tallest Icelander glaciers are over 2,000 metres tall, and on average are 340 metres thick. Despite the monstrous size of the ice, the study says [1], without significant steps to mitigate climate change, Iceland’s glaciers could vanish by 2300. If all this ice melts, scientists estimate that global sea levels would rise by roughly nine millimetres.

The origin and cause of the Blue Blob are unclear, and are being investigated by the researchers. Some scientists say that the Blue Blob is just part of the normal variability in ocean temperatures, since cold, deep water, from the depths of the sea, can travel upwards to the surface. Others say it could be connected to broader ocean circulation patterns.

Interestingly, a “Warming Hole” was found in the same region of the North Atlantic before the Blue Blob was detected. The Warming Hole reduced sea surface temperatures by 0.4-0.8°C, during the last 100 years, and could continue to cool this part of the Arctic, in the coming decades.

The researchers suggest that the Warming Hole could be connected to the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The AMOC is a major ocean current, that transports warm water from the tropics, towards the Arctic, and the researchers suggest that the Warming Hole could be a result of reduced ocean heat, transported to this region.

Data [2] reveals that the AMOC has considerably weakened in the past 150 years, and warming events, in the Northwest Atlantic, have been strongly correlated with times when the AMOC was unusually weak. Warming temperatures, and an influx of freshwater from melting ice, such as the Greenland ice sheet, have been cited as the stressors that are weakening the circulation.

“In the end, the message is still clear,” Brice Noël, the study’s lead author, stated in a press release [3]. “The Arctic is warming fast. If we wish to see glaciers in Iceland, then we have to curb the warming.”



[1] “North Atlantic Cooling is Slowing Down Mass Loss of Icelandic Glaciers” ~ by Brice Noël et al
➥ https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2021GL095697



[2] “Changes in the Gulf Stream preceded rapid warming of the Northwest Atlantic Shelf” ~ by Afonso Gonçalves Neto, Joseph A. Langan & Jaime B. Palter
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00143-5

[3] AGU Press Release [Brice Noël] ➥ https://news.agu.org/press-release/b...acial-melting/

[Sea Wolf]

They’re always wrong with their predictions… Predicted global warming in the 1930s, global ice in the 1960s/1970s. Global warming 2000s, Ice caps melted and Manhattan Island covered by water by 2015. None have been right… not even close… it’s just Mother Earth going through her cycles.

[AJ_n_Audrey]

Originally Posted by geoleo

Have you ever wondered why you are a "True Believer'? Do you believe in Bitcoin?

I'm not a believer, I'm an engineer with a math minor, and I've been watching the data accumulate since 1979 when I learned about the Arrhenius equation and theory in college. Back then, the discussion was apolitical. It's the non-scientists who have politicized it, and have constructed elaborate conspiracy theories to explain why scientists are telling us these things. Oh, and the oil and gas folks have funded the doubt industry because it's good for their business to do so.

Change the channel.

[captlloyd]

Originally Posted by AJ_n_Audrey

I'm not a believer, I'm an engineer with a math minor, and I've been watching the data accumulate since 1979 when I learned about the Arrhenius equation and theory in college. Back then, the discussion was apolitical. It's the non-scientists who have politicized it, and have constructed elaborate conspiracy theories to explain why scientists are telling us these things. Oh, and the oil and gas folks have funded the doubt industry because it's good for their business to do so.

Change the channel.

Bingo !

[GordMay]

When Sea Level Rise Truly Began Accelerating
A global analysis [1] of sea levels over the past 2,000 years has found a rapid rate of increase in line with the Industrial Revolution.

More about ➥ https://www.sciencealert.com/sea-lev...63-study-finds

[1] “Timing of emergence of modern rates of sea-level rise by 1863" ~ by Jennifer S. Walker et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28564-6#Sec1

See also:
Another study [2] finds that annual global sea-level rise is now 50 per cent higher — 3.3 millimetres in 2014 from 2.2 millimetres in 1993 — in just two decades, due to the dramatic increase in the melting of land-based ice, from glaciers and ice sheets, in Greenland and Antarctica, as a result of global warming.

[2] “The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014" ~ by Xianyao Chen et al
“Global mean sea level (GMSL) has been rising at a faster rate during the satellite altimetry period (1993–2014) than previous decades, and is expected to accelerate further over the coming century ...”
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3325

And, for a change of pace:
Another study [3] finds that climate change does not just mean constant gradual sea level rise, but rather, more extreme variability, on top of a rising trend, as oceans warm, and ice caps melt
Sea level extremes expose coastlines to risk from the increased likelihood of flooding, during high water levels, or the exposure of shallow reefs, during low sea level events [taimasa].
Studying [3] past El Niño events shows that low sea levels, in the western Pacific, exposed shallow reefs to air for months of low tide cycles, causing massive coral die-offs and changing fishing habits. It is unknown whether more frequent coral exposure, during sea level drops, will permanently harm reefs abilities to grow, with sea level rise, while taking into account ocean acidification and warming.
The current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has resulted in sea levels up to 40 centimetres below normal levels in the tropical northwestern Pacific as seen in Pago Bay in Guam.
Similar sea level drops for Samoa were recorded during the last strong El Niño in 1998. Very low sea levels for an entire year has a six per cent increase in probability based on the study’s 125-year models for Samoa.

[3] “Future extreme sea level seesaws in the tropical Pacific” ~ by Matthew J. Widlansky et al
➥ https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1500560


Pardon me, if some of these citations are redundant.

[sv Stella Maris]

Change is the only constant. Let’s all consume less y’all 👍

[TPG]

I'd encourage you to check out Judith Curry and her story.

I'm all for science and data, but my eyes glaze over once the pundits get involved - this issue like many has too many political players who are more than willing to color outside the lines to gain influence over others.

Based on many previous predictions we should have all been long dead by now, yet here we are.

[CaptJimFrei]

And the downside?

Deeper channels.
Deeper water at my slip.
Less likely to hit a sandbar.