Western Caribbeans and El Nino

[Riggerman]

18,000 plus post says it all. Bye, Bye.

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by Riggerman

Would love to have a battle of wits, but it appear zee cam unarmed.

hahahahaha unarmed is the po who asked a question and turned troll. inability to understand correct terminology is your exhibition of ignorance, and projection of your own fails is what you are practicing. is a game of narcissists. unarmed ignorance cannot begin to learn a simple phenomenon such as weather.
is most unfortunate. at first i felt sorry for your ignorance, now i am certain of your abject inability to learn anything.

[mud bug]

Grow up both of you! You are embarrassing yourselves.

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by Riggerman

18,000 plus post says it all. Bye, Bye.

since 2008, clownboy. loooong time. and now restoring my formosa in exotic locales, aka hurricane alley. and you stuck in usa whining about inability to predict el nino hahahahahahaha
voyaging under sail also demands time to repair, or are you that uneducated

[Gadagirl]

Whewww! I interpreted the original question as to what are the general regional effects of el nino/el nina. Specific to western Caribbean. There are effects world wide, as has been pointed out. But what are they specific to the western Caribbean?

If I may assume, I don't think he's asking for predictions of such events. Just observation, documented information of the effects in the western Caribbean. Ie. Number of named storms in gulf of Mexico /western Caribbean, wind or current changes, during documented el nino events, etc.

If you have such historical observations, then pleasee share. If you know of web sites, books, other sources that show documentation and correlation to weather events, share those with us.

He seemes to have collected the information on the effects to the pacific ocean, West coast US, Wes coast Africa, etc. Just asking what historical effects to western Caribbean.

I'm ignorant also and wish to learn as well. So, will those that have sailed the western Caribbean during el nino please contribute any advice or information that you can share?

[GKJ Texoma]

How about this from the last El Nino?

https://www.xeroscleaning.com/blog/e...ibbean-drought



G

[zeehag]

hi jude.. elnino brings hotter water into caribbe and more canes are able to be formed. winter provides no christmas winds which are plentiful in normal years and absent as many other trade winds are in el nino.
presence of el nino will not be known until around may when current changes or not
current doesnot change until end may. enso cycles change end may. cane season begins in pacific mid may., and in caribbe end may.
with the increased caribbe temps there are more canes err formations over belize and yukkytan in el nino cycles with some crossover formations travelling between pacific and caribbean side

[Gadagirl]

Thanks Zee!

[denverd0n]

Originally Posted by Riggerman

Would love to have a battle of wits, but it appear zee cam unarmed.

You're awfully sure that SHE'S the one that's unarmed, aren't you? That is, "cam" unarmed, eh?



That's the way it always is, isn't it?

[SV Bacchus]

Originally Posted by zeehag

if you watch closely you can see the temps slowly beginning to change starting as early as early as end march. it is a fascinating event.

It is indeed and I appreciate your input! Thanks Zee

[StuM]

I see Zee is still flogging that old myth about ENSO cycles changing in May. A simple perusal of the historical data disproves that.



The 2014-15 El Niño started in the Oct/Nov/Dec quarter for example.



If you can see any regular May cycle change in either the graph or the quarterly data here, you're a better man than I am Gunga Din.


El Ni?o and La Ni?a Years and Intensities

[StuM]

Originally Posted by zeehag

hi jude.. elnino brings hotter water into caribbe and more canes are able to be formed.

Strange, all the scientific literature I've seen says the exact opposite. More hurricanes in La Niña and fewer in EL Niño years. Here's a typical description ( Even Wikipedia says similar)



Interaction with El Niño: how hurricane frequency may be affected
"In general, warm El Niño events are characterized by more tropical storms and hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and a decrease in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
The primary explanation for the decline in hurricane frequency during El Niño years is due to the increased wind shear in the environment.

In El Niño years, the wind patterns are aligned in such a way that the vertical wind shear is increased over the Caribbean and Atlantic. The increased wind shear helps to prevent tropical disturbances from developing into hurricanes.

[Nicholson58]

Originally Posted by zeehag

funny you talk el nino when the current off south america is cold, which generally presents with LA NINA cycle, and very strong. current is stronger than i have seen since 1973.
been watching weather longer than that.
el nino presents with hot water current.
the current changes end may. keep watching......


of course with everything else on planet backwards, may just be so, only nature knows, and she aint telling mets..hahahahaha

ocean is cold this year... check out wundergrounds sea temp charts....

Caribbean seemed cooler this last season everywhere we dove or snorkeled. Evenings were pleasant and not oppressive. Waters 20 miles offshore approaching Trinidad this June we’re 2.5 C cooler than a year ago. I’ve been predicting a down hurricane year since June and so far I may be right. Fingers crossed.

Sorry I can’t help the OP. Good question but I’m not sure we will find a knowledgeable answer. Most models are notorious failures.

[Lihuedooley77]

We just keep life easy and simple as possible.

I did look up the professional prognosticors predictions for hurricanes in the caribbean this season.

They also said that El nino and La nina situations can swap back and forth. They were not sure when that was going to happen. They gave their SWAG ( scientific wild ass guesses ) of how many named hurricanes, tropical storms, intensity, etc, etc.

Also the water temps in the caribbean are pretty warm...83 degrees F, about the time when we sail those waters. May.

So, ridiculous as this sounds, we are gong to continue our BVI two week sailing vacatiions mid may next year 2019, for two weeks plus and we are going to stay out of the caribbean in Aug, Sept, and Oct. Our personal choice.

Yes, we know the hurricane season can begin in june and end about november. But have not personally seen hurricanes in june or july.

The folks who live down there have a saying..." September Remember, October all over. " Basic principle that we have followed for 35 years .

All we can do , is look at the present conditions, and general history of hurricane activity, including their main spawning grounds off Africa. They did mention cooler waters off Africa, so that might be a good sign of less chance of hurricanes this season. notice the word ' might' .

However, with two long careers in flying and sailing, I 100 % believe that mother nature does what she wants, when she wants, and us humans have no bloody control over her power. She can kick the coon dog whompas out of us mere mortals when ever she wishes.

But, I read the reports to Erica, and we both looked at each other. Even the pros are not sure of what is going to happen. You all can look those reports up on the web.

As to those brave cruising folks who are planning being in hurricane prone areas, I can fully understand the concern about hurricanes and tropical storms.

We are non long cruising sailors, and can chose our time for our caribbean sailing bare boat adventures.

Even then, we once were surprised by near hurricane force winds in St. Barts. 64 mph winds. That is an amazing story for another time. The tropical wave or depression formed right there, big surprise to every one. That included the airliners going into St. Martin, the local fishermen, the cruisers, the bare boat charter folks, and the charter boat companies them selves.

Our plan is to research the weather conditions, ocean temps, and the predictions closer to our planned dates. Last two weeks in may 2019 for the BVI. And totally pass on being down there during Aug. Sept, and Oct.

Also, we are hoping that the entire caribbean does not go thru another Irma and Marie for a long time. However , the ocean waters are warming up, and are fuel stations for hurricanes.

Best of all the good weather that is possible to all of the cruisers in the caribbean, and the people of those islands.

Probably the best we all can do, is to put all of the information available in our favor and then make the personal decision as to what we deem safe for us.

May those be the correct choices.

We just recently moved back to the mainland from 10 yrs on Kauai Island, Hi. and every year we had hurricanes marching across the pacific toward us. Kauai was most fortunate, the hurricanes, weakened or disapated due to colder ocean temps, or slid north or south of us, or weakened when they hit the big island. As the old saying goes, each time, " We prepared for the worst and hoped for the best ".

Good sailing winds and safe sailing to you all.

[dcorbert]

Riggerman. no-one really seems to have answered your question. If you are still looking at this post after all that's been said, I can give you my observations, having lived in Guatemala and sailed the Western Carib. for the last 25 yrs. Although I have never tried correlating N W C weather with Nino/Nina