Miami - Strategy for Sailboat

[David Hughes]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Since your heading North, I'd go to Jax and go way up river, far as I can.
Once you get in the middle of the stream, head due North to stay in it, I rode the Stream from Stuart to Brunswick Ga last week and averaged 10+ kts the whole time.
I would not head to Sea myself

Yes, and Hurricane Jose, right behind Irma, is going to be offshore....

[SecondBase]

More precise measurement. 5.1 miles off Boca getting some gulfstream lift.

Water temperature reading from Milwaukee Tools at current location is 84.6 degrees. Does anyone know peak gulfstream temperature expected?

Checking every half hour to find the high point of the stream as offshore distance increases.

[a64pilot]

It jumped 2 degrees for me, I don't remember the temps though, just 2 degrees.
I kept heading NE for a couple of hours once I got in it and then turned due North.

Don't know if this will help, but this was our track, by the time I turned back in towards Brunswick, we lost the stream about even with jax it's a ways offshore there.
https://share.garmin.com/josephbays?doMobile=1

Don't stay out too long, you need in my opinion to find a good hole to climb into

[SecondBase]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

It jumped 2 degrees for me, I don't remember the temps though, just 2 degrees.
I kept heading NE for a couple of hours once I got in it and then turned due North.

Don't know if this will help, but this was our track, by the time I turned back in towards Brunswick, we lost the stream about even with jax it's a ways offshore there.
https://share.garmin.com/josephbays?doMobile=1

Don't stay out too long, you need in my opinion to find a good hole to climb into

Thanks a64 - watching for a 2 degree shift and also a peak. That additional understanding helps know what increment to expect !!

Followed the related posts. No intention to remain out. Two phases: Run followed shortly by phase 2, Hide.

Side note: GF just collected crew member's dog and she'll head north by car so we all meet up.

[SecondBase]

Originally Posted by SecondBase

Thanks a64 - watching for a 2 degree shift and also a peak. That additional understanding helps know what increment to expect !!

Followed the related posts. No intention to remain out. Two phases: Run followed shortly by phase 2, Hide.

Side note: GF just collected crew member's dog and she'll head north by car so we all meet up.

[belizesailor]

Not sure where you are shooting for N, but keep in mind the Stream diverges more from the Fl coast the further N you go. Stream location based on sea surface temp anlysis as of yesterday:

[SecondBase]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

Not sure where you are shooting for N, but keep in mind the Stream diverges more from the Fl coast the further N you go.

Thank you Belize Sailor. Any estimate for miles offshore at Cape Canaveral and miles offshore at JAX ?

[flyingfin]

Second base - Stream this time of year is usually 17-20 miles off Canaveral and 45 off St Aug. Suggest you start in just north of St Aug and run into St Johns River at Jax, watch tides because they get quite a flood that will push you all the way downtown. But look out for freighters if running at night, they will likely be leaving port and headed for sea.

If you hit the inlet at wrong tide, slide into the ICW or Port on the north side and see which way Irma goes

[belizesailor]

Attached a chart using MyOceans current data. Per their data the W wall of the stream at roughly 80W. The coast and stream diverge quickly N of Stuart. I measure roughly 33nm off Canaveral and 65nm off Jacksonville. Given those distances off, staying in the stream is going to yield diminishing returns pretty quickly.

[SecondBase]

Belize Sailor and Flying Fin THANKS.

Currently 6.5 miles off of Delray Beach. Sea temp remains one hour later at 84.7 degrees.

Is 10 miles offshore the estimated distance to use until we pass west palm beach inlet?

Suggestions?

[belizesailor]

Also, if you look at NOAAs arrival time estimates, IRMA could be approaching FL by Friday evening. Miami to Canaveral (about 165mn) will take you at least 24 hours (assuming a typical sailboat), not counting entry/exit times. Total distance to Jacksonville is more like 285nm. Either way you will be cutting it uncomfortably close to me...and that assumes no problems.

[SecondBase]

Thank you for providing the big picture perspective on this. Jose is tropical storm now. Is there an expected category or too soon to tell?

Our westing is 79.57.280. Water temp actually dropped a bit but speed increased so maybe an eddy.

[belizesailor]

The current is normally very close in off Miami/Ft. Laud...like 5 miles. Thats also about what MyOceans shows. I would get my ass moving N.

[SecondBase]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

The current is normally very close in off Miami/Ft. Laud...like 5 miles. Thats also about what MyOceans shows. I would get my ass moving N.

You got that right. Heading is 40 and 6.3 miles off. Will straighten northward now.

How many knots of stream current should we be seeking?

[belizesailor]

Jose is a TS, but nothing solid on forecast yet, just expected to intensify. I would focus on getting out of IRMAs way first...then you are already hunkered down for a possible strike by Jose...which now looks like a similar forecast path.