The hurricane prediction is for the strongest in 70 years

[AJ_n_Audrey]

Originally Posted by Rorzech

As I recall Al Gore predicted that there would be NO polar ice left by the year 2013 ! We now have more Ice and polar bears than ever before ! WTH ?

In fact, the amount of arctic sea ice is at the second lowest level ever recorded since satellite surveys began in the '70's. Facts are stubborn things.

Overview | National Snow and Ice Data Center :: Satellite Observations of Arctic Change

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

There is not more ice than ever before. It is just short of a record low.

yes jack after all it is entering the beginnings of the melt season in the north . However look at the abnormally rapid freeze up at the south pole.
Meereisportal: Home

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

Another 'scientist-for-hire'.

If


"The preseason zone predictions are so accurate – updates to the forecasts are not required during the hurricane season." 721News


why don't the worlds' meteorological services just disband and buy their information directly from Global Weather Oscillations? (that's a rhetorical question, in case anyone out there has conspiratorial tendencies)

With a fairly cursory search (25 minutes), I could find no what-I would-call-credible sources that support the claims for accuracy made by GWO themselves.


Here is the GWO 2018 forecast, synopsized by NBC2 (Ft. Myers, I believe).

"Mr. Dilley predicts that 2018 will be somewhat of a repeat of 2017 - but some hurricane landfalls will occur in different locations this year. You can expect 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, potential for 4 United States hurricane landfalls – 2 of which will likely be major impact storms. And once again – some Caribbean Islands will have another dangerous season."


Seems a bit like reading your horoscope...

and yet he has a much better accuracy record than 90% of the meteorologists out there .

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

if you look at the planets weather this winter ain't over yet.
Rorzech. Good luck I have been trying to explain this to them for several years.

In the northern hemisphere, both meteorological and astronomical winter are behind us.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/meteo...omical-seasons

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

In the northern hemisphere, both meteorological and astronomical winter are behind us.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/meteo...omical-seasons

yes I agree but then many parts of Europe are expecting snow clear up to Easter Sunday.
That's not quite normal.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

yes I agree but then many parts of Europe are expecting snow clear up to Easter Sunday.
That's not quite normal.

I agree that is not normal.

The connection between the loss of Arctic sea ice, the fluctuations in the jet stream and Arctic outbreaks was made in three different reports 6 years ago.

Francis, J.A., and S.J. Vavrus (2012), "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes," Geophysical Research Letters, 21 February, 2012. doi:10.1029/2012GL051000, 2012

Jaiser, R., K. Dethloff, D. Handorf, A. Rinke, J. Cohen (2012), Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation, Tellus A 2012, 64, 11595, DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595

Jiping Liu, Judith A. Curry, Huijun Wang, Mirong Song and Radley M. Horton (2012), "Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall", Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences, Published online before print February 27, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1114910109

Yes, that seems counter-intuitive, but science tends to be like that.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

and yet he has a much better accuracy record than 90% of the meteorologists out there .

According to whom?

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by newhaul

yes I agree but then many parts of Europe are expecting snow clear up to Easter Sunday.
That's not quite normal.

I dont know.. flown into Gatwick late April back in the 90's dressed for Spring.. snowing and blowing a hoolie when I got outa the airport..
As for sattalite records since the 70's.. Wow.. Lets panic.. A whole 50 years to judge the future by..
Dont make me laugh.. my memory goes back further by 20years.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

According to whom?

historical records

[Cadence]

Originally Posted by grantmc

I predict those Atlantic storms will be called:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sara
Tony
Valerie
William

Your list is not diverse enough to be politically correct.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by boatman61

I dont know.. flown into Gatwick late April back in the 90's dressed for Spring.. snowing and blowing a hoolie when I got outa the airport..
As for sattalite records since the 70's.. Wow.. Lets panic.. A whole 50 years to judge the future by..
Dont make me laugh.. my memory goes back further by 20years.

I remember the winter of 90-91 there was a blizzard that dumped 3 ft of snow on the shipyard we were in at the time, but about two months ago I looked at historical records for that location and it said we only got 3 inches of snow then .

[Olddan1943]

Do not confuse a permanent global warming with cyclical weather patterns.
How can "they" explain finding bodies buries in the ice for 1000 years. How long will the warming trend no one can predict.
People are trying to capitalize on the cycle by ignoring it.
Even the ozone layer is in a period of rebuilding.

[conachair]

Originally Posted by jackdale

I agree that is not normal.

The connection between the loss of Arctic sea ice, the fluctuations in the jet stream and Arctic outbreaks was made in three different reports 6 years ago.
.

It's been weird for over a month now, jet stream pointing down Portugal or Morocco instead of further north.

[transmitterdan]

Back to the topic:

Insurance actuaries are the best analysts of risk ever. At least those that work for solvent companies. Have any yacht insurers changed their rules about coverage related to named storms? If so, when and how?

[Olddan1943]

Originally Posted by transmitterdan

Back to the topic:

Insurance actuaries are the best analysts of risk ever. At least those that work for solvent companies. Have any yacht insurers changed their rules about coverage related to named storms? If so, when and how?

Interestingly, my boat/yacht insurance has not gone up for 2018