War in Ukraine/Med Cruising

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

I don't disagree with all of what you wrote. There are definitely issues on many sides in this situation, some of it going back decades.

But let's also not try to portray Russia as the innocent, oppressed, under attack nation here - to do so is to fall into the exact trap that they want you to fall into...

There are no semantics - "attack military" and "annex territory" are both VASTLY different to "economically constrain", "politically meddle", or other such measures - REALLY VASTLY DIFFERENT

And just because the West has done stupid shxt in the past, doesn't mean that other nations should continue doing it too.

Another's mistakes, or the mistakes of the past does not give one a 'free pass'. Instead one would hope it means 'hey, let's not do the same stupid shxt too/again...'

I agree with you , I’m not justifying military intervention. But the point is Russia has been deliberately “ squeezed “ to the point of using a crude response. If you taunt someone to the point he swings a fist ,who really started the fight.

In my view any intervention if it happens at all will be into the separatist regions , I see no point in a general Russian invasion of Ukraine , arguably Russia doesn’t have the forces needed to do that anyway

Ukraine is very unlikely to respond as it would in essence end up in a civil war on its own territory.

Personally I think Putin will formally recognise the disputed regions and put it up to Ukraine to then react.

I don’t see this extending to anything other then sabre rattling .

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Umm, Ukraine do have about 2500 Western-supplied anti-tank missiles, but only about 500 of them are Javelins.

Ukraine had 500 Javelins in December. The U.S. sent them 300 more in January.

[jmh2002]

Ukraine has WAY more anti-tank missiles than this. Other variants have been delivered from the UK and Poland too.

[jmh2002]

Speech by Putin just now - although war not formally declared, reading between the lines it seems it clear it will happen

The occupied territories of Donbas will also be recognised by Russia as independant.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Speech by Putin just now - although war not formally declared, reading between the lines it seems it clear it will happen

The occupied territories of Donbas will also be recognised by Russia as independant.

Right. Like he can unilaterally recognize areas in another country as independent.

You can assume that the intent is to now take them under his wing and "protect" them.

We've seen this trend before.

He will be killing civilians soon.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Ukraine has WAY more anti-tank missiles than this. Other variants have been delivered from the UK and Poland too.

Not a lot of good against fighter jets though.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Speech by Putin just now - although war not formally declared, reading between the lines it seems it clear it will happen



The occupied territories of Donbas will also be recognised by Russia as independant.

The recognition was always on the cards. The next move will be Ukraine’s. Putin will only react if Ukraine attempts to reassert control in the separatist regions.

This would be a big gamble for Ukraine.

My reading is they will take it in the chin

The issue for the Ukraine is how much bloodshed is it worth to attempt to regain sovereignty in those regions. Attacking the region will simply prompt Russia to place troops in those regions “ for their defence “ that would serve no purpose for Ukraine.

Ukraine has no effective way to recover these regions. The cause is lost in reality.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Right. Like he can unilaterally recognize areas in another country as independent.

You can assume that the intent is to now take them under his wing and "protect" them.

We've seen this trend before.

He will be killing civilians soon.

Why would he kill civilians. That serves no purpose , Putin is a schemer not a nutter

Putin was to demonstrate to NATO he isn’t “boxed “ in. He always has to play to his domestic audience that this move is to protect Russian speaking separatists in the disputed regions

Hence in all cases a very limited military action probably solely within the separatist region. I certainly don’t see him straying much beyond.

The issue will then be front and centre for Ukraine , if they react militarily to the recognition it will hand a pretext to Russia

Be interesting to see. I heard a comment on the radio from a government party member that Ukraine would not initiate military action to assert its authority in the separatist regions , to me it looks like Ukraine is going to “ accept “ this on the pretext of avoiding a greater Ukrainian conflict.

[notoldbilbo]

Personally I think Putin will formally recognise the disputed regions and put it up to Ukraine to then react.

I believe, from this evening's BBC News, he just did so in another grandiose 'piece of theatre'.

I expect the next moves will be his puppets in the 2 Donbas 'republics' asking for Russian military assistance, then Putin will move troops, aircraft, and artillery WITH RUSSIAN ENSIGNIA into Donetsk and Luhansk. This will not resolve the issue, but will simply move his guns further into Ukraine.....

It is widely believed that a full-scale mechanized invasion of north and north-western Ukraine has been put on hold due to the unseasonable wet and 'unfrozen' weather - which continues. There are those who believe that Russian tanks do not get 'bogged'. That is simply untrue, and the soggy, marshy miles of river valleys that Russian mechanised combat divisions would need to traverse at speed are close to impassible at present. It doesn't matter that the Russkies have many more tanks if they cannot be brought into action as the natural water obstacles ( e.g. Pripyat and Uzh valleys ) prevent their free movement.

Yes, the Javelin anti-armour missiles are superb, but they require operators trained to a much higher standard of proficiency than do the NLAWs. These latter are efficient, for they strike DOWN through the weaker top armour. However, consider this pic of a late model T-72 ( New York Times? ) in Belarus, and specifically the angleiron and wire 'cage' welded on top of the turret. A 'quick and dirty' cheap mod specifically geared to defeat the NLAW? Another indicator that armoured thrusts were part of Plan A - perhaps now shelved for later when the weather improves.





I still believe the most likely Main Objective is partition of Ukraine along the line of the Dnieper River from north to south - and partioning Kyiv just as Berlin was for decades.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Why would he kill civilians. That serves no purpose , Putin is a schemer not a nutter

Putin has a habit of eliminating the opposition.

[notoldbilbo]

It is argued that the Russians could ( likely would ) seize some crucial bridges/viaducts/road junctions using heloborne landings with combat helicopters' support - but continued very poor weather severely inhibits such operations, even if they achieve 'air superiority' ( not 'supremacy' ).

Air assets cannot hold ground. For that, you need 'boots on the ground' - actually, in armoured vehicles - lots of them. But we know all that, don't we?

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by notoldbilbo

It is argued that the Russians could ( likely would ) seize some crucial bridges/viaducts/road junctions using heloborne landings with combat helicopters' support - but continued very poor weather severely inhibits such operations, even if they achieve 'air superiority' ( not 'supremacy' ).

Air assets cannot hold ground. For that, you need 'boots on the ground' - actually, in armoured vehicles - lots of them. But we know all that, don't we?

But he clearly intends , if he does intervene to restrict it to the separatist regions.

Hence the Likelihood is a stalemate with Ukraine who will probably not wish to provoke a conflict in the separatist regions , one that will just end up with civilian deaths , even more polarisation and a conflict Ukraine can’t actually win.

[Statistical]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Ukraine had 500 Javelins in December. The U.S. sent them 300 more in January.

And those are just the ones we acknowledge. A lot of stinger missiles went missing and ended up in Soviet occupied Afghanistan.

Man portable guided missiles (both surface to air and anti-tank) are a powerful force multiplier. The cost of them vs the cost of the intended target is rather low. They don't require a huge amount of skill or logistics support.

The goal wouldn't necessarily be to win but just inflict punishing losses on Russian armor and aircraft. The US can do that with less than a rounding error on US military spending.

A Javelin costs about $180k for the missile. It is about $500k for complete launcher, support hardware and two missiles. So for $250M you could put 1000 Javelins in the country. While kill rates on T-90 are likely to be low they would be brutal against older tanks and other armored vehicles. A T-90 runs about $5M and a T-72 with upgrades around $1.5M. So even a low kill rate can do a lot of economic damage.

[jmh2002]

The Conflict Intelligence Team has advised that Russia's military "...appear to be taking up attack positions" in the east.

And a Field Hospital has been deployed in the Russian city of Shebekino which is just 5km from the Ukrainian border and near the major eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.

It would appear that an attack is imminent

[notoldbilbo]

Originally Posted by Statistical

And those are just the ones we acknowledge. A lot of stinger missiles went missing and ended up in Soviet occupied Afghanistan.

Man portable guided missiles (both surface to air and anti-tank) are a powerful force multiplier.

The goal wouldn't necessarily be to win but just inflict punishing losses on Russian armor and aircraft. The US can do that with less than a rounding error on US military spending.

The UK government/MoD sent multiple C-17 lifts of hardware - reportedly NLAWs - into Ukraine/Kyiv a couple of weeks ago. Another site tracked perhaps a dozen of these. The NLAWs reported could have been carried in just two of such airlifts. What was in the others....?

And what about the many similar Airlift Command flights made by the USAF? What was in those....?

'The first casualty of war is truth....'