Battery production costs are dropping, why not street prices?

[navman]

Just ran across this article as I was looking into Lithium cells for our classic today, and instantly began wondering why it is that we're not seeing the same reductions in price?

A good friend who works for PJM told me that the chemistry used in their batteries is very, very similar to what we would use (for all the same reasons, namely safety, TCO).

Any thoughts?

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...-over-3-years/

[ShinyHappy]

That article appears to be describing the cost of adding storage to the grid, not battery cost. What I'm reading appears to be an overall cost for adding that storage including infrastructure. So the battery costs may be somewhat stable while the buildings, transmission, and maintenance costs are substantially decreasong.

It doesn't really say why the decrease, but it may not be the battery costs.

[navman]

That's the single most expensive component in the system actually, so it has to be a major contributing factor. I see cell prices dropping like a stone as well, and just can't help thinking that the manufacturers are making the cells up enormously.

[bikekite]

I think prices are dropping on Lithium quite a lot. That said, just like Energizer AA batteries as Walgreens will 2-3X the price of a 48 pack at Costco, name brands will be trying to hold on as long as possible to keep their gross margins up.

https://shandian.en.alibaba.com/prod...tab&filter=all

$328 for a 4X280Ah lithiums is pretty impressive and these are getting good reviews online. This is cheaper than a lead battery at NAPA!

robin

[ShinyHappy]

Interestingly just read an article about home solar. Demand there is up right now which, as a market force, would keep the price of batteries up. That was another guess I had but didn't have anything to back it up until now.

I'm not in the market now but will be in the coming year or two. Once the increase in supply shows up to meet current demand we should see the expected price drop. Though with Covid still a thing, either side of that equation could affect price until the world gets back to a little more normal commerce, which I will look forward to.

[Colin A]

Demand is high. As someone mentioned volume is a driver. High volume buying for cars, electronics, grid etc is driving costs down, but production is still somewhat constrained. So they are making up lower volume products to make it worth their while but also to make up for discounts given to volume producers.



A while back I was working on the electrical system of a high end RV. The owner had a long career making sensors for the auto industry. He told me when selling to the OEM for production he made less then 1% profit based on volume contract. Selling to the same OEM for after sales parts (service department) he made 15 to 20% profit. And the ones he sold to Napa Auto zone etc could be anywhere form %50-%100 profit.

[seattle_sailor]

It looks like battery prices have fallen 88 percent over the last decade but the curve seems to be getting flatter over the past couple years.

The average cost of a lithium-ion battery pack fell to $137 per kWh in 2020, according to a new industry survey from BloombergNEF

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...e-last-decade/


Can't wait for 2021

[Milkmannosoy]

Check out BigBattery.com Found them on a youtube channel. Living Hakuna. They even have a 10 percent discount. 12v 170ah for 900 and 24v 170 ah for 1600. Pretty dang good deal when you add the 10 percent. Its about half the price of what im seeing out there. 10 year warranty american company.

[seattle_sailor]

I agree and I just watched this as well.
https://youtu.be/-Uf4spEW0YA

It sounds like Living Hukuna had a terrible experience with their last battery vendor. Bigbattery sounds interesting and I will be following their channel to see how they perform over time.

Merry Christmas

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by Milkmannosoy

Check out BigBattery.com Found them on a youtube channel. Living Hakuna. They even have a 10 percent discount. 12v 170ah for 900 and 24v 170 ah for 1600. Pretty dang good deal when you add the 10 percent. Its about half the price of what im seeing out there. 10 year warranty american company.

Looks like it's OEM'd in China though. That breaker is a 2 dollar part in China.

Seems like a lot of these guys are basically OEM resellers.

BYD is going to be a huge players in battery and electric cars. They are making a push for the powerwall market. Buffet bought into them in 2008. Trillion dollar company in a few years. China's taxi's fleet is using them. Good thing is their chem has always been LFP.

[Woodland Hills]

It’s a matter of supply and demand: most production is committed to high volume long term exclusive contracts. That translates into a supply shortage for everyone who is not included in one of those contracts. Do you think the Panasonic/Tesla gigafactory in Nevada is going to open a retail store anytime soon?

[billyjiang]

This battery is cheap as well. 280Ah lifepo4 prismatic cells.https://cmxbattery.com/Product/eve-2...tock-for-sale/

[GordMay]

Falling lithium-ion battery prices
According to research by BloombergNEF, Lithium-ion battery pack prices fell 87% from 2010 to 2019, with the volume-weighted average hitting $156/kWh.
Underlying material prices will play a larger role in the future, but the introduction of new chemistries, new manufacturing techniques and simplified pack designs will keep prices falling.
Batteries keep getting better. Average battery energy density is rising at 4-5% per year, and new chemistries are hitting the market. Maximum EV charging speeds are also rising.
By the mid-2020s EVs reach up-front price parity, without subsidies, with internal combustion vehicles in most segments, but there is wide variation by region.

“Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020"
The Electric Vehicle Outlook is BloombergNEF’s annual long-term forecast of how electrification, shared mobility and autonomous driving will impact road transport from now out to 2040.
Here ➥ https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/

Meanwhile:
The cost of energy, from wind power, has dropped by a factor of 10.
The cost of electricity, from solar power, has dropped by a factor of 30