Canadian COVID-19 News

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by danstanford

I have been vaccinated and believe in all the good things it does for our society so I am not disagreeing with the concept of vaccination being the best way out of this.

Of all the people choosing not to get vaccinated, only one in 1500 of them will die of it and one in 40 will get it.

I don't want me or you or someone we know to die of Covid but the ones who choose not to protect themselves are statistically not in much danger compared to many other risks we take every day. Twice that many people will die who choose to smoke for example.

There is no reason for me to respond here and I debated with myself about doing so but frankly I am distressed at our inability to assess risk. So many seem to see this as binary where Covid infection equals death. If we treated all risks this way we certainly wouldn't be heading out on big water in a boat.

My apologies for the rant. Dan

It is a good rant and spot on.

I think there are various reasons for our inability to calculate risk. The best book I know if is “Thinking Fast and Slow” by Danny Khanaman (sp?).

As to vaccination rates, I expect the to grow as time wears on. Right now there is a lot if noise about vaccines, but eventually to wt will calm down and most folks will do what most folks do. There will be a few hard core hold outs, there always are, but not many. Thats just how humans work, as a domesticated species we follow follow the herd.

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by sv_pelagia

Interesting Univ. Washington modelling showing possible "true" Covid-19 death rates (per 100,000).

Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19 | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Attachment 239486

GREAT GRAPHIC. I suspect it would be even more clear if Russia was broken into segments.

And even more so if the graduations were different:
<1,000
1,000-500
500-250
Etc.

This is something I have been pointing to since last fall.

[Scorpius]

Originally Posted by AKA-None

A one liter engine may be efficient with respect to fuel economy but not be effective to move a thousand foot ship

Does that help?

I have, and have had, no problem with the difference between effectiveness and efficiency. As a long time IT project manager I was very cognizant of the it. Effectiveness was getting the job done and ALWAYS came first. Efficiency was getting it done with the minimum expenditure of resources.

It was the difference between efficacy (as so heavily used in the medical profession and, to my knowledge, almost no-one else) and effectiveness I was seeking - but it has been explained to my satisfaction. Efficacy is the THEORETICAL effectiveness of a drug as determined by an analysis of the trial data. EFFECTIVENESS is the actual effectiveness as determined by real experience once the drug is in common use. (Did I get that right?) Thanks everybody for a most interesting discussion.

Scorpius launched yesterday and we are off to points remote - so I will be having much less fun on Cruisers' Forum for the next few months than I have had of late. Take care all and enjoy this Covid-diminishing summer. I certainly expect to myself.

[GordMay]

Vitamin D may not provide protection from COVID-19 susceptibility or disease severity
Observational studies have suggested that increased vitamin D levels may protect against COVID-19. However, these studies were inconclusive and possibly subject to confounding. A study [1] published in PLOS Medicine by Guillaume Butler-Laporte and Tomoko Nakanishi at McGill University in Quebec, Canada, and colleagues suggests that genetic evidence does not support vitamin D as a protective measure against COVID-19.

The results showed no evidence for an association between genetically predicted vitamin D levels and COVID-19 susceptibility, hospitalization, or severe disease, suggesting that raising circulating vitamin D levels through supplementation may not improve COVID-19 outcomes in the general population.

However, the study had several important limitations, including that the research did not include individuals with vitamin D deficiency, and it remains possible that truly deficient patients may benefit from supplementation for COVID-19 related protection and outcomes. Additionally, the genetic variants were obtained only from individuals of European ancestry, so future studies will be needed to determine the relationship with COVID-19 outcomes in other populations.

According to the authors:
"Vitamin D supplementation as a public health measure to improve outcomes is not supported by this study. Most importantly, our results suggest that investment in other therapeutic or preventative avenues should be prioritized for COVID-19 randomized clinical trials".

[1] “Vitamin D and COVID-19 susceptibility and severity in the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative: A Mendelian randomization study” ~ by Guillaume Butler-Laporte et al
➥ https://journals.plos.org/plosmedici...l.pmed.1003605

[AK_sailor]

There are continued rumors of some changes in the border restrictions:
Foreign policy expert: Canadian border announcement likely in June

Dr. Laurie Trautman, director of the Border Policy Research Institute at Western Washington University, expects that on June 21 — the end date of the current border extension — we won’t simply see another 30-day extension as has happened every month since the border first closed in March 2020. Instead, she predicts an announcement of coming change, or changes being put into place already.
“From what I’m hearing from the Canadian side, there will likely be something happening — whether that is announcing an actual plan, which has not yet been developed, around easing the border restrictions, or perhaps some sort of easing,” she said.
-----------snip-----------
.....Canadian people on the whole have not been chomping at the bit to get the border reopened.
“The Canadian public sentiment has really strongly supported keeping the border restrictions in place, and so of course that drives what elected political leaders are going to do,” Trautman said.

How much and how fast things change remains to be seen. When science and politics tangle, guess which one usually wins?

Dr. Trautman notes that Canada has formed an expert panel to recommend policies going forward. However, the panel specifically does not include marine borders in it's recommendations:
Priority strategies to optimize testing and quarantine at Canada’s borders

This fourth report provides recommendations for land and air border measures. The Panel did not include marine border measures in its scope of analysis or recommendations.

[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by AK_sailor

How much and how fast things change remains to be seen. When science and politics tangle, guess which one wins?

When science, politics and (differing) public opinions tangle...

Its times like these I actually feel sorry for politicians. They have an awful lot of constituencies to satisfy and some of them are going to be pretty angry no matter what the decision is.

[sv_pelagia]

Prime minister: Canada won’t rush re-opening border with the U.S

https://www.northislandgazette.com/n...-with-the-u-s/

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Canada to recommend mixing and matching AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines
NACI guidance based on early research from U.K., Spain that shows mixing shots is safe and effective
➥ https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/canad...naci-1.6048152

Mixing COVID-19 vaccine doses leads to more reactions, study finds, which may be 'first sign of success'
➥ https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/vacci...oses-1.6023830

Spanish study finds AstraZeneca vaccine followed by Pfizer dose is safe and effective
➥ https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...fe-2021-05-18/

It's now official:
“INTERCHANGEABILITY OF AUTHORIZED COVID-19 VACCINES” ~ NACI
The Public Health Agency of Canada released, on June1st, 2021, updated recommendations from the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) on the interchangeability of authorized COVID-19 vaccines (also referred to as ‘mixed vaccine schedules’). These recommendations are based on current scientific evidence and NACI’s expert opinion.
NACI recommends that:
- Persons who received a first dose of the AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD vaccine may receive either AstraZeneca/COVISHIELD vaccine or an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) for their second dose, unless contraindicated.
- Persons who received a first dose of an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) should be offered the same mRNA vaccine for their second dose. If the same mRNA vaccine is not readily available or unknown, another mRNA vaccine can be considered interchangeable and should be offered to complete the vaccine series.
More ➥ https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/ph...accines-en.pdf

[GordMay]

Canada’s daily COVID-19 cases plummet below 2,000 for 1st time since October

The number of Canadians testing positive for COVID-19 took another sharp dive Tuesday, plummeting below 2,000 new cases, for the first time since last October 18; when 1,827 new infections were reported.
The 1,638 new infections came as most provinces and territories recover from the crippling third wave of the pandemic.
The new cases also brought the seven-day average down to 2,528. The new average marks a 71-per cent drop from the height of the third wave in April, and is down 54 per cent from the average just two weeks ago.
Although most provinces are seeing their infections fall, Manitoba's healthcare system is continuing to buckle under the weight of record-high hospitalizations.

Canada's chief medical health officer Dr. Theresa Tam told reporters, Tuesday [1], that hospitalizations are down 40 per cent, and ICU admissions and deaths are both down 25 per cent, compared to mid-April.
Deaths have remained steady, however, averaging more than 40 per day since mid-April. Another 19 deaths were reported Tuesday.
To date, Canada has seen a total of 1,383,214 COVID-19 cases. Of those, 25,566 people have died and 1,326,484 have recovered.

Globally, the coronavirus pandemic has infected at least 171 million people, killing more than 3.5 million, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

[1] Remarks from the Chief Public Health Officer of Canada on June 1, 2021
➥ https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...ne-1-2021.html

More about ➥ https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coron...ne-1-1.6048971

[deblen]

Just for you Mike O'Reilly
Better pack up.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfo...ef_3977_275679

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by deblen

Just for you Mike O'Reilly
Better pack up.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfo...ef_3977_275679

He will be one happy person.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by deblen

Just for you Mike O'Reilly
Better pack up.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfo...ef_3977_275679

Yes indeed, it is awesome news. Now I have to re-think our plans, but it's looking at least a month earlier than I'd even hoped.

I might see my boat this year!!!

[pcmm]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Yes indeed, it is awesome news. Now I have to re-think our plans, but it's looking at least a month earlier than I'd even hoped.

I might see my boat this year!!!

that's great news! Do you remember where you parked your boat?

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by pcmm

that's great news! Do you remember where you parked your boat?

Oh, it sticks out like a sore thumb with its full keel and big tarp. My worry is whether I can remember how to launch it, and then put the whole boat together again. And then there's the whole sailing thing.

I feel like I've forgotten more than I ever knew .

[Midnight Son]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Oh, it sticks out like a sore thumb with its full keel and big tarp. My worry is whether I can remember how to launch it, and then put the whole boat together again. And then there's the whole sailing thing.

I feel like I've forgotten more than I ever knew .

Yes, memory is the first thing to go with old age.
Best wishes in NL.