Canadian COVID-19 News

[N Coast Murray]

The Delta variant has an R0 number of 5.08:

The Delta variant is now replacing all other SARS-CoV-2 variants. We found a mean R0 of 5.08, which is much higher than the R0 of the ancestral strain of 2.79.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34369565/

The Toronto version of SARS had an R0 (infection rate) of 1.2:

Our best estimates are consistent with SARS eventually being contained in Toronto, although the time of containment is sensitive to the parameters in our model. It is shown that despite the empirically modeled heterogeneity in transmission, SARS’ average reproductive number is 1.2, a value quite similar to that computed for some strains of influenza...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7134599/

The spread of Ebola had a societal factor, where family members preparing dead bodies of loved ones made them catch the virus, such as in Africa.

I think Covid-19 would have spread world wide no matter where it originated from due to people being most infectious before experiencing symptoms.

[Scorpius]

You're right. I'm not sure where I got my original information - but obviously it was wrong. The worst are measles, polio, and smallpox (eradicated).

Disease Reproduction number (R0):
Ebola 2014: 1.51 to 2.53
H1N1 Influenza, 2009: 1.46 to 1.48
Seasonal Influenza: 0.9 to 2.1
Measles12 to 18!
MERS: around 1
Polio: 5 to 7!
SARS: <1 to 2.75
Smallpox: 5 to 7!
SARS-CoV-2 (causes COVID-19): 1.5 to 3.5

[N Coast Murray]

Originally Posted by N Coast Murray

I believe I was a participant in an epidemiological experiment this weekend.

The town where I live has a population of 8,000 and is well over 90% for first vaccinations and in the high 80's for double vaccinations.

We just had our first Christmas Arts & Crafts Fair since Covid hit, and there was a directive from Provincial health authorities that there was to be no checking to see if anyone was vaccinated.

No questions asked, no vaccine passport needed, anybody and everybody allowed in over the two days of the event.

My theory is, it was a test run for when BC and Canada move into the endemic phase. It'll be interesting to see in a few weeks if there is a measurable jump in Covid case numbers...

Just found a map from BCCDC keeping tabs on the number of current Covid-19 cases in Kitimat which is updated every Wednesday, so it should be easy to see if there is a jump in numbers.

Week of Oct 24th to 30th...12 cases.

Nov 5th and 6th was the craft fair, so will post the numbers for the next 4 weeks to see if they jump.

http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site...4_20211030.png

[N Coast Murray]

Originally Posted by N Coast Murray

Just found a map from BCCDC keeping tabs on the number of current Covid-19 cases in Kitimat which is updated every Wednesday, so it should be easy to see if there is a jump in numbers.

Week of Oct 24th to 30th...12 cases.

Nov 5th and 6th was the craft fair, so will post the numbers for the next 4 weeks to see if they jump.

http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site...4_20211030.png

Oct 31st to Nov 6 there was one case of Covid-19.

I haven't gone back in time to see what pattern might exit, but for now will consider 12 cases to be 'normal'. Will post an update next Wednesday.

http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site...1_20211106.png

[N Coast Murray]

A new Delta subtype has moved up from Idaho and gained a foothold in Saskatchewan and Alberta:

Rasmussen told CBC Radio's Saskatoon Morning that it's believed the AY.25 subtype started in Idaho and eventually migrated into the Canadian Prairies.

She said as a coronavirus spreads through a population, it will continue to mutate. Eventually, a new sublineage may be created.

Rasmussen said the sublineage's dominance is a direct result of unchecked transmission, especially through people who are unvaccinated.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saska...hold-1.6242699

[GordMay]

Canada donates nearly 2 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines to Uganda

KAMPALA - Saturday 13 November 2021: The Ministry of Health has today received 1,904,140 doses of the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, donated by the Canadian Government and shipped via the COVAX facility, —the world’s facility for universal access to COVID-19 vaccines.

No one is safe until everyone is safe!

More ➥ https://www.unicef.org/uganda/press-...accines-uganda

And ➥ https://globalnews.ca/news/8371792/c...-uganda-covax/

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Canada donates nearly 2 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines to Uganda

Good to hear. Unfortunately, when there's such a massive, fast rollout, there's also considerable waste. (not intending to single out the US, it's just a well-documented example)

[Mike OReilly]

CBC:
Ottawa nixing molecular COVID test requirement for Canadians taking short trips abroad: sources

Molecular tests, like the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, will still be required for trips longer than 72 hours.

Fully vaccinated Canadians taking short trips abroad will soon no longer need proof of a negative COVID-19 molecular test to return home, say sources.

The change is expected to come into effect at the end of the month as cross-border shopping picks up before the holidays.

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

CBC:
Ottawa nixing molecular COVID test requirement for Canadians taking short trips abroad: sources

Although the law of probabilities says the longer you are exposed the more chance you have of having something happen, the range between 1 hour and 71 hours is sufficient to do the damage with Covid exposure.

With the diverse range of sometimes nonsensical policy decisions and the managed information with respect to the risks, it is not surprising we are confused. I have to say that my tolerance for those shouting follow the science is waning as it is apparent that the science is pretty hard to follow save for the efficacy of the vaccines in some ways.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by danstanford

Although the law of probabilities says the longer you are exposed the more chance you have of having something happen, the range between 1 hour and 71 hours is sufficient to do the damage with Covid exposure.

With the diverse range of sometimes nonsensical policy decisions and the managed information with respect to the risks, it is not surprising we are confused. I have to say that my tolerance for those shouting follow the science is waning as it is apparent that the science is pretty hard to follow save for the efficacy of the vaccines in some ways.

This discussion here is a policy one, not a scientific one. The science is clear: PCR tests are the best. So if the policy is to reduce risk, then everyone should be subject to a PCR test, regardless of vacination status.

But the real-world policy choice is never just one-sided. We want to reduce the risk of importing more virus, but we also want to allow people to travel again. The public policy challenge is to take all the info, and determine the best choice.

The argument to maintain the PCR test requirement is the "abundance of caution" approach. While I think it is the safest approach, I do think it is no longer reasonable for fully vaccinated individuals who already present a very low risk. In these cases, an antigen test (a "rapid test") should be good enough.

They aren't as accurate, and can easily miss a Covid-19 infection at the early stages (before the body has mounted much of a response), but they are far cheaper and far easier to administer. I think they are good enough.

I predict Ottawa will further walk back their demand for a full PCR test soon. That is, unless this change proves problematic, or we see a large upsurge in cases due to a new variant.

[Scorpius]

Originally Posted by danstanford

Although the law of probabilities says the longer you are exposed the more chance you have of having something happen, the range between 1 hour and 71 hours is sufficient to do the damage with Covid exposure.

With the diverse range of sometimes nonsensical policy decisions and the managed information with respect to the risks, it is not surprising we are confused. I have to say that my tolerance for those shouting follow the science is waning as it is apparent that the science is pretty hard to follow save for the efficacy of the vaccines in some ways.

Yes, you can catch Covid in one hour or 71 hours or two weeks or two months - but I would think, all other factors being equal (which they never are), that the odds go up directly proportional to time - so the chances of coming back with it after 2 or 72 hours is much less than if you are a snowbird who has been away for months - and it is a pragmatic decision by the government to eliminate PCR test requirements for short trips away.

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Scorpius

Yes, you can catch Covid in one hour or 71 hours or two weeks or two months - but I would think, all other factors being equal (which they never are), that the odds go up directly proportional to time - so the chances of coming back with it after 2 or 72 hours is much less than if you are a snowbird who has been away for months - and it is a pragmatic decision by the government to eliminate PCR test requirements for short trips away.

So if we are going to be pragmatic, we should be considering the place they were. In some places they would likely be less likely to contract Covid than if they lived in Brampton!

As for the probabilities you describe above, the dangerous time is only the 4-5 days between exposure and the onset of symptoms? Then if one were to lie on the screening another week or so after that? To use your example of a snowbird the number of months they are away is irrelevant if we are truly risk managing for bringing the virus back with them.

[deblen]

In a democracy,Rights come with Responsibilities. / Len


https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/video?cl...4QtxCg-WqCDtM0

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by deblen

In a democracy,Rights come with Responsibilities. / Len

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/video?cl...4QtxCg-WqCDtM0

It's something I've been saying around here since the start of all this anti nonsense. I completely support peoples' rights and freedoms to choose masks or vaccines. But with rights come responsibilities. With choices come consequences.

[davefromoregon]

This is a far more informed discussion than I’ve seen for a long time.