Canadian COVID-19 News

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Stephen_MO

Of random note and potentially offering something to equally encourage/offend
all, my wife (FP physician) got the original covid 19 infection (multiple PCR tests/classic symptoms), recovered, then received 2x Pfizer vaccine doses, then caught Delta - confirmed by multiple tests including PCR/symptoms, then recovered again. I got the original covid 19 virus, got two Moderna, was *highly* exposed to her during Delta stint (shared space/drinks/food) but before we knew she had covid again, took multiple PCR/rapid test turning out negative Delta. She indicates that they are seeing a LOT of post vaccination breakthroughs to the extent that she and her colleges would not call post vaccination breakthrough illness "uncommon" per se. No conclusions here, other than wondering if maybe this thing is going to come through like a freight train and very few of our efforts (beyond vaccination/natural immunity blunting serious effects of subsequent variant infection) are going to slow it much and it is going to have to attenuate over time. Other than that, God bless, safe sailing!

Yeah, these so-called "breakthrough cases" aren't all that uncommon anymore. But I don't think the rate is actually increasing. Since the vast majority of the population is fully vaccinated, they represent the largest pool, so the gross numbers are increasing, but not the overall rate. I know epidemiologists were explaining that this would happen many months ago.

My personal anecdote is my niece. She is fully vaccinated (with Pfizer) but still contracted Covid-19. Her husband is also fully vaxxed, but despite being in very close quarters with her, including a 12-hr car ride, he never caught the bug. So, very similar to your personal experience.

I read recently about some research looking at these kinds of cases. Researchers are trying to understand why some people seem to be able to avoid the disease, despite being fully exposed to the virus.

[SV_FlyingTigress]

Originally Posted by danstanford

Stephen, I would love her comments/observations about the acuity of the sickness in the breakthrough cases versus unvaccinated and first time sicknesses. This is going to be the best argument going forward to get the reluctant to vaccinate in my opinion. What is best for your fellow man and threatening with vaguely accurate outcomes is clearly not working.

She was sicker the 2nd time (Delta) - not necessarily unexpected if the immune system is mounting an aggressive defense due to the vaccine/natural immunity - but neither bout was serious & involved just at home care. I don't know about the cases they are seeing clinically, she will discuss observed general trends but doesn't discuss individual cases as they are confidential. She did indicate that they are seeing enough vaccine breakthrough cases that they don't seem remotely "rare" or "unusual" ... which, given variant mutations... seems like (as a lay person) it would be kind of expected given the mRNA vaccine types being highly fit to the original C19 spike traits until they are updated for the Delta/Omicron variants. But again, just sharing some anecdotal (so therefore, ultimately pretty meaningless by themselves) observations.

[pcmm]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Yeah, these so-called "breakthrough cases" aren't all that uncommon anymore. But I don't think the rate is actually increasing. Since the vast majority of the population is fully vaccinated, they represent the largest pool, so the gross numbers are increasing, but not the overall rate. I know epidemiologists were explaining that this would happen many months ago.

My personal anecdote is my niece. She is fully vaccinated (with Pfizer) but still contracted Covid-19. Her husband is also fully vaxxed, but despite being in very close quarters with her, including a 12-hr car ride, he never caught the bug. So, very similar to your personal experience.

I read recently about some research looking at these kinds of cases. Researchers are trying to understand why some people seem to be able to avoid the disease, despite being fully exposed to the virus.

As of today's numbers (in Ontario) fully vaccinated cases represent 58% of todays number. A far cry from where we were a few months ago when 80+% of all positive cases on a given day were in unvaccinated individuals. Seems to indicate that immunity is likely diminishing with time and that "break through" cases are becoming the norm.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by pcmm

As of today's numbers (in Ontario) fully vaccinated cases represent 58% of todays number. A far cry from where we were a few months ago when 80+% of all positive cases on a given day were in unvaccinated individuals. Seems to indicate that immunity is likely diminishing with time and that "break through" cases are becoming the norm.

I think if you examine the rates of infection in the various groups (unvaccinated, partial vaccinated, fully vaccinated) you'll see there hasn't been a large increase in the vaccinated group. Some yes, likely due to waning protection PLUS the fact that these are new variants. But the rate of infection in fully vaccinated people hasn't gone up dramatically.

The reason there are a lot more vaccinated people getting infected has more to do with the increasing size of the vaccinated pool. There are just a lot more of us now, so naturally the sheer numbers are a lot bigger.

[Midnight Son]

Originally Posted by Stephen_MO

Of random note and potentially offering something to equally encourage/offend
all, my wife (FP physician) got the original covid 19 infection (multiple PCR tests/classic symptoms), recovered, then received 2x Pfizer vaccine doses, then caught Delta - confirmed by multiple tests including PCR/symptoms, then recovered again. I got the original covid 19 virus, got two Moderna, was *highly* exposed to her during Delta stint (shared space/drinks/food) but before we knew she had covid again, took multiple PCR/rapid test turning out negative Delta. She indicates that they are seeing a LOT of post vaccination breakthroughs to the extent that she and her colleges would not call post vaccination breakthrough illness "uncommon" per se. No conclusions here, other than wondering if maybe this thing is going to come through like a freight train and very few of our efforts (beyond vaccination/natural immunity blunting serious effects of subsequent variant infection) are going to slow it much and it is going to have to attenuate over time. Other than that, God bless, safe sailing!

Thank you for posting the information.

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I think if you examine the rates of infection in the various groups (unvaccinated, partial vaccinated, fully vaccinated) you'll see there hasn't been a large increase in the vaccinated group. .... But the rate of infection in fully vaccinated people hasn't gone up dramatically.

The reason there are a lot more vaccinated people getting infected has more to do with the increasing size of the vaccinated pool. There are just a lot more of us now, so naturally the sheer numbers are a lot bigger.

After two years of all this, one would think that basic analytical metrics would have been understood by now.


---rates of infection in the various groups


is vastly different than


--- the quantity in any given group


and that


--- the larger the group in quantity the higher the probability of that number being higher


as compared to



--- the rates of infection in the various groups


Evidently not.


Thanks for continuing to remind us of these basics, Mike.

[nwdiver]

The issue of breakthrough cases is interesting statistically, but the real number which seems hard to find is severity of Covid-19 on vaccinated individuals. We need a vaccination, age, underlying condition breakdown of ICU beds to see what’s what…….

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by nwdiver

The issue of breakthrough cases is interesting statistically, but the real number which seems hard to find is severity of Covid-19 on vaccinated individuals. We need a vaccination, age, underlying condition breakdown of ICU beds to see what’s what…….

I couldn't agree more. It seems the only time we see anything about the age or health of the cases is when there is a healthy young person who falls ill, usually accompanied by a smiling photo.

The heart of the issue is managing people's behavior and insuring they don't feel too safe or they will start to act in a more risky fashion. If you put me in power I would likely attempt to do the same thing. Having said that, I am gobsmacked that the journalists of this world are not clamoring for more transparency in the reporting. It seems the only journalistic conclusion worthy of release is one that leads to more risk mitigation steps.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by nwdiver

The issue of breakthrough cases is interesting statistically, but the real number which seems hard to find is severity of Covid-19 on vaccinated individuals. We need a vaccination, age, underlying condition breakdown of ICU beds to see what’s what…….

Indeed, it doesn't seem to be easy to find. There are research papers that look at rates of infection and hospitalization in the three groups (fully vaxxed, partial and non). A few jurisdictions also publish differential data, for example Ontario:

https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...4september2021

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34437525/

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e5.htm

https://www.gov.scot/publications/foi-202100234630/

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm

And this CBC (i.e. journalist) analysis looks at the differential rates for cases in Alberta: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...tion-1.6178449

[Mike OReilly]

Some tentative/possible good news:

G&M: South African doctors see evidence Omicron COVID-19 variant is milder than Delta

According to South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases:

• Only about 30 per cent of those hospitalized with COVID-19 in recent weeks have been seriously ill, less than half the rate as during the first weeks of previous pandemic waves.
• Average hospital stays for COVID-19 have been shorter this time – about 2.8 days compared to eight days.
• Just 3 per cent of patients hospitalized recently with COVID-19 have died, versus about 20 per cent in the country’s earlier outbreaks.

“At the moment, virtually everything points toward it being milder disease,” Willem Hanekom, director of the Africa Health Research Institute, said, citing the national institute’s figures and other reports. “It’s early days, and we need to get the final data. Often hospitalizations and deaths happen later, and we are only two weeks into this wave.”

[desodave]

It seems like a "milder" variant but the suggestion is way more contagious. The UK may not be the best comparison for Canada ... eg, case numbers, deaths and hospitalizations are multiples of BC numbers when adjusted for population

(UK approx 11 times BC)... but a story in the Guardian this morning suggests that the variant still has the ability to overwhelm the healthcare system by sheer numbers. UK also has much lower vaccination rates than Canada so that's a factor as well imo.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...say-scientists
I also wonder if this is part of the disease becoming endemic ... morphing into increasingly milder variants.

[pcmm]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I think if you examine the rates of infection in the various groups (unvaccinated, partial vaccinated, fully vaccinated) you'll see there hasn't been a large increase in the vaccinated group. Some yes, likely due to waning protection PLUS the fact that these are new variants. But the rate of infection in fully vaccinated people hasn't gone up dramatically.

The reason there are a lot more vaccinated people getting infected has more to do with the increasing size of the vaccinated pool. There are just a lot more of us now, so naturally the sheer numbers are a lot bigger.

This is incorrect ( in Ontario at least). The percentage of the Ontario population that is fully vaccinated has risen by 1.3% in the last month, but the percentage of fully vaccinated testing positive for Covid-19 has gone up 330% pretty worrying statistics

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by pcmm

This is incorrect ( in Ontario at least). The percentage of the Ontario population that is fully vaccinated has risen by 1.3% in the last month, but the percentage of fully vaccinated testing positive for Covid-19 has gone up 330% pretty worrying statistics

Those are two percentages with two different denominators. The first is looking at the whole group of vaccinated people. The second is measured against the number of vaccinated people testing positive. The former is a massive group (~11 million to date), the latter is a tiny number (~a few tens of thousands now).

To be a meaningful comparison, you'd need to look at the rate of infection in the total population of vaccinated people. It is going up, but not dramatically (so far).

[pcmm]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Those are two percentages with two different denominators. The first is looking at the whole group of vaccinated people. The second is measured against the number of vaccinated people testing positive. The former is a massive group (~11 million to date), the latter is a tiny number (~a few tens of thousands now).

To be a meaningful comparison, you'd need to look at the rate of infection in the total population of vaccinated people. It is going up, but not dramatically (so far).

I think if you look at the numbers you'll find the opposite, you're right they are very different numbers. In the last month the number of fully vaccinated Ontarians has gone from 11,160,503 (Nov 15) to 11,306,219 (Dec 10) An increase of 1.3% The percentage of the fully vaccinated population that is testing positive for Covid has gone from 0.0019% to 0.0064% (still a small number but there is a trend showing here) The number of actual people testing positive per day is still relatively low in comparison to the total vaccinated population but the numbers are trending up substantially. Really annonying.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by pcmm

I think if you look at the numbers you'll find the opposite, you're right they are very different numbers. In the last month the number of fully vaccinated Ontarians has gone from 11,160,503 (Nov 15) to 11,306,219 (Dec 10) An increase of 1.3% The percentage of the fully vaccinated population that is testing positive for Covid has gone from 0.0019% to 0.0064% (still a small number but there is a trend showing here) The number of actual people testing positive per day is still relatively low in comparison to the total vaccinated population but the numbers are trending up substantially. Really annonying.

Yes, exactly. And agreed. It is going up, and it is unfortunate, but it's not a dramatic rise (yet), and is in line with what we've been warned to expect with waning immunity and shifting variants.