Canadian COVID-19 News

[Mike OReilly]

CBC: Ontario moves school online, pauses non-urgent procedures as part of new COVID-19 measures

Public Health Ontario models suggest Omicron variant will overwhelm health system

"Our public health experts tell us we could see hundreds of thousands of cases every day," Ford said of the ongoing surge of new COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant.

Ford added that this could mean hospitals end up thousands of beds short.
"If we don't do everything possible to get this variant under control, the results could be catastrophic. It is a risk I cannot take," he said.

This is how I read the data as well. I've gone from optimistic to "HOLY SHYTE!" Omicron might be a lot less virulent, but it is proving to be way more contagious.

(H)ospitalization ∝ (C)ases x (V)irulence

Our "V" may be lower, but it is being overwhelmed by a huge increase in "C".

As you say LE, we've given up on tracking cases; our testing systems have been overwhelmed. Unless this really is a very short wave, soon our hospitals and ICUs will follow.

[Midnight Son]

Mike, I posted earlier, a smaller percentage of a huge number, is still a very very large number.
Best wishes all.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Midnight Son

Mike, I posted earlier, a smaller percentage of a huge number, is still a very very large number.
Best wishes all.

Yes... I think we're all saying that.

[Montanan]

Ontario's lengthy list of what Ford called "targetted and time-limited" restrictions include reducing social gathering limits to five people indoors and 10 outdoors, closing indoor dining at restaurants and bars and shuttering indoor concert venues, theatres, cinemas and gyms. Premier Doug Ford said that virtual learning will replace in-person classes until [read - at least] Jan. 17. The news backtracked on an announcement made last week that in-person classed would resume this Wednesday.

The shortened isolation measures where people with at least two doses of vaccine who test positive for COVID-19 only need to isolate for five days instead of 10.
The isolating person must wear masks at all times they are in proximity with others, e.g., when sharing a residence with cohabitants.
Symptoms must be fully resolved by the end of the five-day period, otherwise people must continue to isolate.

Anyone who is not fully vaccinated must isolate for at least 10 days or until all symptoms have been resolved.

[Lake-Effect]

Just for comparison

...according to modelling data published by the University of Warwick on 30 December, hospital admissions should by now be approaching about 5,000 a day in England. Yet, according to the latest figures, the number of Covid-19 patients admitted on 1 January was 1,819, down from 2,370 three days earlier.

Fingers crossed.

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Just for comparison

...according to modelling data published by the University of Warwick on 30 December, hospital admissions should by now be approaching about 5,000 a day in England. Yet, according to the latest figures, the number of Covid-19 patients admitted on 1 January was 1,819, down from 2,370 three days earlier.

Fingers crossed.

One of the other related elements to explain the inconsistency in the data is the reported much lower time of hospitalization. Omicron patients are reported to have a 3 day average stay compared to about double that for Delta patients.

[danstanford]

In addition to the above element there is the fact that the CDC has revised their estimates of the prevalence of Omicron downward leading to the conclusion that there is still lots of Delta around which would ultimately lead to higher than expected rates of hospitalization.


https://www.npr.org/2021/12/28/10686...vise-estimates

[Mike OReilly]

G&M: WHO sees more evidence suggesting Omicron causes milder symptoms than previous COVID-19 variants

“We are seeing more and more studies pointing out that Omicron is infecting the upper part of the body. Unlike the other ones, that could cause severe pneumonia,” WHO Incident Manager Abdi Mahamud told Geneva-based journalists, saying it could be “good news.”

However, he added that Omicron’s high transmissibility means it will become dominant within weeks in many places, posing a threat in countries where a high portion of the population remains unvaccinated.

[danstanford]

I am still searching in vain for the explanation of how Omicron is replacing Delta. It seems to me that the Delta pathways will continue to grow and that Omicron pathways will emerge in an adjacent path.
The only logical (to me at least) explanation is that vaccination programs are closing off Delta pathways and in the absence of Omicron we would be seeing very little infection. It is difficult for sure to gain solid interpretations of the data given the breadth of the manner of presentation.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by danstanford

I am still searching in vain for the explanation of how Omicron is replacing Delta. It seems to me that the Delta pathways will continue to grow and that Omicron pathways will emerge in an adjacent path.
The only logical (to me at least) explanation is that vaccination programs are closing off Delta pathways and in the absence of Omicron we would be seeing very little infection. It is difficult for sure to gain solid interpretations of the data given the breadth of the manner of presentation.

I doubt that this is an answerable question yet. It's certainly possible to have both variants operating, much like we have multiple variants of the influenza virus circulating at any one time.

Early research (which is still preliminary) indicates that Omicron tends to infect the upper airways, while Delta is more focused on the lower tracts. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective. The virus is maximizing its niché in the ecosystem.

What I'm sure is concerning to experts is the possibility that there will emerge another variant; one with the infectious characteristic of Omicron, and the virulence of Delta.

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Thanks Scorpius. I thought the pics would be painfully amusing to see. At least I don't have to ponder whether I can try and fix the cover .

I too have been wishing I was in your neck of the woods... that was until the gods decided they hated BC. First drought, then fire and brimstone, then a biblical deluge, and now bitter cold from the ninth circle of hell. Maybe Newfoundland ain't so bad .

We are starting to think that maybe, just maybe, The Rock will become our permanent home.

The more we look around the Eastern seaboard the better Newfoundland looks.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by danstanford

I am still searching in vain for the explanation of how Omicron is replacing Delta. It seems to me that the Delta pathways will continue to grow and that Omicron pathways will emerge in an adjacent path.
The only logical (to me at least) explanation is that vaccination programs are closing off Delta pathways and in the absence of Omicron we would be seeing very little infection. It is difficult for sure to gain solid interpretations of the data given the breadth of the manner of presentation.

It's actually pretty simple. The key fact is that after someone gets sick with Omicron, they now have increased protection against Delta and the earlier variants of COVID. And Omicron, with its much higher contagiousness, is outcompeting Delta for the shrinking number of uninfected or unvaccinated hosts still available.

[N Coast Murray]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

It's actually pretty simple. The key fact is that after someone gets sick with Omicron, they now have increased protection against Delta and the earlier variants of COVID. And Omicron, with its much higher contagiousness, is outcompeting Delta for the shrinking number of uninfected or unvaccinated hosts still available.

That's my hope.

There is an equal chance that Covid could pick up some nasty/deadly genetic material from an immunocompromised person sick with two viruses.

That's all it takes: one person with two viruses in the same host cell at the same time, sharing random bits of code. Usually results in a dud, but once in a while...

Hopefully, if a deadly variant appears, those who have had Omicron (and haven't been vaccinated) will have some antibodies which will impart some protection.

My concern would be more for people in third world countries who can't get vaccinated through no fault of their own, and health care workers who really need a break.

[nwdiver]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I doubt that this is an answerable question yet. It's certainly possible to have both variants operating, much like we have multiple variants of the influenza virus circulating at any one time.

Early research (which is still preliminary) indicates that Omicron tends to infect the upper airways, while Delta is more focused on the lower tracts. This makes sense from an evolutionary perspective. The virus is maximizing its niché in the ecosystem.

What I'm sure is concerning to experts is the possibility that there will emerge another variant; one with the infectious characteristic of Omicron, and the virulence of Delta.

Yes the early hamster studies, released as early unreviewed information, show Omicron is not moving into infecting the lungs, thus making it less severe, I hope that stands up……

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by nwdiver

Yes the early hamster studies, released as early unreviewed information, show Omicron is not moving into infecting the lungs, thus making it less severe, I hope that stands up……

Agreed. And this is consistent with the shorter hospital stays noted by Dan. Omicron is still the SARS-CoV-2 virus, so those that survive its infection will have an immune system boost. And since it is so contagious, a lot of people are getting infected. As some virologists have noted, this could be the beginning of our way out of this pandemic.

But as the old saying goes, don't count your chickens before they hatch. All of this is still conjecture and theory. There's a lot we don't know for certain. And this virus has proven to be quite effective at thriving.