Canadian COVID-19 News

[Scorpius]

Originally Posted by danstanford

Obviously you are very entitled to your own assessment of what drives the unvaccinated among us. I know probably a dozen people not vaccinated today none of whom show those traits as driving their decision. In fact I do not know anyone exhibiting these traits save perhaps selfishness. These are not people picketing the health community nor posting on anti-vax websites, just people who fear the potential downstream consequences more than they fear Covid.

To be fair, they are also not people paying someone to take a shot for them. I would ask you to consider what is driving those people you know who are unvaccinated rather than assuming the same motivations as those you see in the media.

Again, you are welcome to your opinions and I do respect them.

I go back to my and Mike's previous explanation: that a lot of people don't understand statistics, odds, and actual risk. With a lot of the disinformation flying around it's easy to believe that the risk of getting myocarditis or some other serious side-effect is higher than the possible risks arising from Covid itself. I remember a post on this thread some time ago that had a commentator (I refuse to consider him a journalist) looking at a report out of Ontario about the risks of vaccine side-effects and blowing them all out of proportion without saying that the risks of Covid were far higher - despite the report itself stating that unequivocally.

On the other hand, from the National Post:

https://nationalpost.com/sports/socc...ching-covid-19

So much for Canada's chances of getting into the World Cup this time around

[Scorpius]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I can't recall the article Scorpius, but I do think you're right to zero in on the inability some (many?) people have in understanding statistics, and appreciating how to assess the odds of events. It's no surprise. In fact, it's a well-observed phenomenon that most of us have a hard time understanding these things.

The human behavioural theory is that Homo sapiens simply have evolved to deal with statistics and odds very well. We're great at assessing immediate risk but not very good at understanding risk of non-immediate dangers. Fractions are hard for most people, and appreciating the odds, and therefore the risks, are equally hard.

This certainly explains gambling behaviours, but also extends to things like insurance and how people approach risky activities like, say, sailing off on a smallish sailboat .

Oh come on Mike! Some of us understand the risks of sailing off on a smallish sailboat! We just accept them! As I think I said once before (in a totally different context) we all die once. I think I'd rather do it in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, or sipping a Mai Tai in an anchorage in Polynesia, than being hit by a bus in Vancouver!

Or dying of Covid.

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by danstanford

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It is my belief that if we could stop yelling at them about their responsibilities and instead hear their feelings we might have a fighting chance of modifying their beliefs. It has worked in my world as my employee not vaccinated is now vaccinated.

There are some reprehensible anti-vaxxers out there making irresponsible choices and causing harm to health care workers and indeed the rest of society. Also in place, and I would suggest the vast majority of the unvaccinated, are people accepting the limits their fear of vaccination has placed on them and quietly doing what they think is best for their lives. I don't agree with their choices but I do understand them.

Dan, I recall you mentioning this hesitant co-worker before and am glad he changed his mind.


Could you share with us how that change occurred based on your discussions with him? We might all learn something.


I don't mind "...people accepting the limits their fear of vaccination has placed on them and quietly doing what they think is best for their lives..." but it's when they infect others by NOT isolating, or picket and make threats... That stuff really angers me. Happened here on the Island a few months ago, but they clamped down quickly on that carp.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by danstanford

To be fair, they are also not people paying someone to take a shot for them. I would ask you to consider what is driving those people you know who are unvaccinated rather than assuming the same motivations as those you see in the media.

Dan, my comments were specifically around the circumstances in the story. I no more think this describes every unvaccinated person than you do. Again, we are apparently talking about people who would use their power and privilege to circumvent vaccine mandates by using some of the most vulnerable people, and doing so in a way that may put them at personal risk.

Even if you think the principle motivator here is fear (which I doubt), it is surely still unjustifiable.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Scorpius

Oh come on Mike! Some of us understand the risks of sailing off on a smallish sailboat! We just accept them! As I think I said once before (in a totally different context) we all die once. I think I'd rather do it in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, or sipping a Mai Tai in an anchorage in Polynesia, than being hit by a bus in Vancouver!

Or dying of Covid.

Agreed . Some people can assess the risks quite well, and make rational choices. But just try and have a discussion about insurance around here, and watch all rationality go flying out the window.

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson

Dan, I recall you mentioning this hesitant co-worker before and am glad he changed his mind.


Could you share with us how that change occurred based on your discussions with him? We might all learn something.


I don't mind "...people accepting the limits their fear of vaccination has placed on them and quietly doing what they think is best for their lives..." but it's when they infect others by NOT isolating, or picket and make threats... That stuff really angers me. Happened here on the Island a few months ago, but they clamped down quickly on that carp.

We had a chat about his responsibilities to his co-workers early on last fall when I implemented a vaccination or test policy. During that conversation and in one follow up I was clear that I would not tell him what he could do and that we would make every attempt to accommodate his beliefs with the highest value being the common good of the whole place.

Just before Christmas when it was pretty obvious that Omicron was going to sweep through our world I got the staff together to discuss how we wanted them to respond to possible exposures and potential sickness. During this group chat I referred to my belief that we are all going to get Omicron and that it seems that this is the path to get out of this mess. I went out to see him on the shop floor the next day and when he saw me coming he waved surrender and said he had his first vaccine booked so I contacted a friend in the business and got him in within the hour.

It is my humble belief that many of us need to be heard and some level of understanding applied to our choices before we can quit talking and start listening. In the case of Covid 19, none of us is exempt from having to apply a truth/spin filter to all the news we hear and that real dialogue is the best path to good choices.

[Stu Jackson]

Thx, Dan. Good for you and your co-workers. Now all of them.

[Scorpius]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Agreed . Some people can assess the risks quite well, and make rational choices. But just try and have a discussion about insurance around here, and watch all rationality go flying out the window.

I suspect we have similar attitudes towards insurance and insurers. Spend the money on a bigger, better anchor and more rode!

And don't get me started on lotteries! I recall that, when the BC Lottery Corporation was established, their business plan (I was working in the BC Ministry of Finance at the time) showed that 1/3 of their income (from players) was to go to prize payouts, 1/3 to administration, and 1/3 into government coffers and grants. I'd hate to think what the formula is these days.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson

Thx, Dan. Good for you and your co-workers. Now all of them.

Indeed Dan. Awesome example of how it is possible to help someone along, but in a kind and understanding way.

Originally Posted by Scorpius

I suspect we have similar attitudes towards insurance and insurers. Spend the money on a bigger, better anchor and more rode!

Oh man, we gotta start another insurance thread. It would be awesome to have an ally .

Originally Posted by Scorpius

And don't get me started on lotteries! I recall that, when the BC Lottery Corporation was established, their business plan (I was working in the BC Ministry of Finance at the time) showed that 1/3 of their income (from players) was to go to prize payouts, 1/3 to administration, and 1/3 into government coffers and grants. I'd hate to think what the formula is these days.

Isn't it true that most of the revenue also comes from a relatively small pool of gamblers?

In another life I worked as a blackjack dealer at a number of casinos in Ontario and Alberta. These were always the recreational sort, mostly attached to seasonal fairs. But I did it for a number of years. It was great fun.

Most players were out for a good time; an afternoon's entertainment. But there was a smaller percentage -- I'd say 10-15% -- who were serious gamblers. You could spot them a mile away. They were the ones who knew the game, and knew they would win. They would play the whole table, and easily burn through hundreds of dollars in mere minutes.

Inevitably, these were the people I (as the House) took to the cleaners. And sadly, they were most often the people who looked like they could least afford the losses. More than once, I risked the ire of my pit boss (and my job) by begging people to "just walk away." Of course, they rarely did.

I came away with the understanding that some people simply can't understand statistics and odds. Or perhaps they have this magical belief that they don't apply to them. Sadly, I think we're seeing this play out in real time in many facets of life these days.

[Scorpius]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Indeed Dan. Awesome example of how it is possible to help someone along, but in a kind and understanding way.



Oh man, we gotta start another insurance thread. It would be awesome to have an ally .



Isn't it true that most of the revenue also comes from a relatively small pool of gamblers?

In another life I worked as a blackjack dealer at a number of casinos in Ontario and Alberta. These were always the recreational sort, mostly attached to seasonal fairs. But I did it for a number of years. It was great fun.

Most players were out for a good time; an afternoon's entertainment. But there was a smaller percentage -- I'd say 10-15% -- who were serious gamblers. You could spot them a mile away. They were the ones who knew the game, and knew they would win. They would play the whole table, and easily burn through hundreds of dollars in mere minutes.

Inevitably, these were the people I (as the House) took to the cleaners. And sadly, they were most often the people who looked like they could least afford the losses. More than once, I risked the ire of my pit boss (and my job) by begging people to "just walk away." Of course, they rarely did.

I came away with the understanding that some people simply can't understand statistics and odds. Or perhaps they have this magical belief that they don't apply to them. Sadly, I think we're seeing this play out in real time in many facets of life these days.

I'm sure it's true that most gambling revenue comes from a small percentage of "players" but I really wouldn't know. I stay as far away from such activity as I possibly can.

I've only gambled twice in my life. The first time was in my mid-twenties when I was awarded a few days at a posh fly-in fish camp in Labrador (I was working for Iron Ore Company of Canada in Sept Iles, Quebec at the time) for pulling off a particularly challenging programming project. I joined a number of other "heroes" from around the company for the jaunt.

The first evening somebody suggested we play poker. Wanting to be part of the "in" crowd (which, as a "nerd", I never was), I joined in. I was promptly cleaned out (about $20 as I recall). I immediately realized that poker required some skill, that I had none, and that I had no interest in acquiring any.

The second time was many years later in Reno, Nevada where my wife (of the time) and I stopped in on our way to LA. She REALLY wanted to play the slots. I went in with her, bought a roll of nickels and whiled away the time waiting for her to finish, playing the nickel slots. I lost all $10 and was never so bored in my life. It was really distressing to see the number of people sitting at slot machines, glassy-eyed, just pulling that damn lever over and over like a bunch of automatons.

I was once head-hunted to head up IT for a major casino company. The offer was EXTREMELY lucrative - but I turned it down. I want nothing to do with that industry.

I used to go to Las Vegas for a long weekend once a year - for the Rugby Sevens tournament (I used to play in the Vancouver Premier League - mostly 15's but some 7's). I've walked through every casino on the strip - to get to the free shows at the back. Have you any idea how far it is from the front to the back of Caesars Palace? It must be a kilometre! - and I was never even tempted to stop and plunk my money down. I guess I'm just cheap.

Now we have a Rugby Sevens weekend in Vancouver and the US weekend has moved to LA so I've not been back to Vegas for a few years.

I think perhaps we've drifted a wee bit off topic

[hpeer]

I suspect the gamblers, the 10%, know the odds in an mathematical sense. Thats not the problem. Smokers know the odds, junkies know the odds, it doesn’t stop them. They are not there to win, they are there for the high of betting.

Ages and ages ago there was a Twilight Zone Episode. A guy (gambler, player, womanizer) dies. He knows he is dead and finds he is in a poker game. He wins every hand, and the babe is all over him. At first this is great but quickly he gets bored stiff, brushes iff the buxom blond and quits the game. He complains to the overseer that “This heaven **** is boring.” The Overseer says “Who said this was heaven?”

But I agree there is ALWAYS some 10%. Eisenhauer said “There’s always some jerk who doesn’t “get” the memo and screws up the plan.” Makes me think of Pareto who sort of made a science if it. Which explains your anti vaxers.

[GordMay]

Canadian COVID-19 vaccine study seized on by anti-vaxxers — highlighting dangers of early research in pandemic

“... A Canadian study that vastly underestimated the protection COVID-19 vaccines provide against the Omicron variant is being revised — but not before it spread widely on social media by anti-vaxxers, academics and even the creators of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine.

The Ontario preprint study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, suggested that any three doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were just 37 per cent effective against Omicron infection, while two doses actually showed negative protection ...

... But the paradoxical findings were later found to have been influenced by behavioural and methodological issues, such as the timing of the observational study, the way in which vaccine passports altered individual risk and changes in access to COVID-19 testing.

The results are currently being updated with additional data that showed completely different results, said Dr. Jeff Kwong, the study's lead author and an epidemiologist and senior scientist at the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES) in Toronto ...”

Much more about [/w links to primary sources] ➥ https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid...xers-1.6315890

[Tetepare]

What’s the prediction for opening the eastern borders? There was “noise” in local news sources about Canada opening the border “soon since it doesn’t make a difference “ (paraphrased) but also included quotes from Canadian authorities along the lines of “no way.” This is of course regional news sources of dubious quality.

Any formal predictions or informal “word on the street”? Recognizing of course that my desire to cruise Canada isn’t as significant as Mikes desire to get back to his boat!

[Zippee]

Oh come on Mike! Some of us understand the risks of sailing off on a smallish sailboat! We just accept them! As I think I said once before (in a totally different context) we all die once. I think I'd rather do it in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, or sipping a Mai Tai in an anchorage in Polynesia, than being hit by a bus in Vancouver!

Or dying of Covid.

I think we all can identify with this position. Sure we can die on an airplane flight, but it's not likely. We can get hit by a bus. Die in an anchorage, and so on. But not likely. With Covid we see chances are well under 1% of dying, and we tend to believe - hey I'm not really that old or sick anyway. Not likely, eh?

But that's not the real risk for most of us. After two years we now have data aplenty that at 30% of all who get even mild Covid infections will have long haul effects lasting years and many with permanent damage to organs. We thought we'd recovered only to discover that a huge number of people never really have. The long haul, lasting chronic effects and for many, damages to intellect, memory, lungs and major organs persist. These people were never hospitalized and the acute phase lasted perhaps a few weeks.

But then the long haul effects remain, and remain and remain. And unlike dying in an anchorage, we're talking 30% and greater of the infected. We need to keep that in mind. As for Omicron, we are still in the "milder" acute phase. The long term chronic and permanent effects won't be known for at least 6 months or more...

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

Any formal predictions or informal “word on the street”? Recognizing of course that my desire to cruise Canada isn’t as significant as Mikes desire to get back to his boat!

For what it's worth, my gut feel since mid-December is that Omicron hospitalizations in Canada would peak and start to drop before the end of January. One article today suggests they might be peaking now in Montreal.

And it seems that Canada, with similar vaccination rates to Europe, lags them by a few weeks, and Europe's COVID deaths may have peaked and started to decline already.

So I still feel pretty good that by end of January, there will be visible decline in new COVID hospitalizations and deaths in Canada... (but it will be ugly getting to there, and the crisis state of healthcare may will persist )

I don't have a handle on the current US situation.

So I'm still anticipating that the Canada-US border will be open by the time we have cruising weather.