Canadian COVID-19 News

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

For what it's worth, my gut feel since mid-December is that Omicron hospitalizations in Canada would peak and start to drop before the end of January..

Here is the most recent hospitalization modelling for British Columbia. Two models provided: #1 assuming high Omicron transmission (based on late Dec results) and #2 20% lower transmission.

The high transmission model suggests peak of hospitalization occurring over the coming week. The lower tansmission model adds a week.



The whole presentation provides detailed results, with vaccination clearly providing protection. Also, early data suggests Omicron results in shorter hospital stays, etc.
https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/14.01.2...9Modelling.pdf

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

For what it's worth, my gut feel since mid-December is that Omicron hospitalizations in Canada would peak and start to drop before the end of January. One article today suggests they might be peaking now in Montreal.

And it seems that Canada, with similar vaccination rates to Europe, lags them by a few weeks, and Europe's COVID deaths may have peaked and started to decline already.

So I still feel pretty good that by end of January, there will be visible decline in new COVID hospitalizations and deaths in Canada... (but it will be ugly getting to there, and the crisis state of healthcare may will persist )

I don't have a handle on the current US situation.

So I'm still anticipating that the Canada-US border will be open by the time we have cruising weather.

Our Medical Officer of Health came out on Twitter today condemning those with some hope we have crested and offered his opinion that we are on a small plateau and that there is another spike in front of us. No justification for his opinion, just what he feels. To be fair, I have different opinions with just anecdotal perspectives from other nations.

[Mike OReilly]

At this point in the pandemic, about the only thing I've learned is not to make predictions. I know what I hope will happen. But this virus continues to surprise us.

My sense is that all predictions about the pandemic are as good as all weather predictions. Out beyond about five days, they are pretty much useless.

[GordMay]

In this Ontario hospital, it's mostly the unvaccinated who are overwhelming the ICU

The Lambton Public Health Unit, which serves Sarnia and its surrounding region in southwestern Ontario, has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the province, with 77 per cent of the eligible population fully vaccinated. The Ontario average is 82 per cent.
This week, CBC News was granted access to Bluewater Health's ICU and its specially designated COVID-19 ward.
In recent weeks, the hospital's 14-bed ICU has been overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients, the vast majority of whom hadn't received their shots.
As of Thursday, Bluewater Health said 75 per cent of the COVID-19 patients in the hospital's ICU were unvaccinated. On some recent days, Haddad said, the proportion was as high as 100 per cent. That's a higher rate than what's being seen across Ontario, where just under half of those requiring intensive care are unvaccinated.
Earlier this month, the situation became so worrisome that Bluewater Health issued an open letter to the community, noting it had more than quadrupled the number of COVID-19 patients in the hospital, from seven to 31.

More ➥ https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/sarni...ents-1.6315681

Letter to the Community ~ Bluewater Health
➥ https://www.bluewaterhealth.ca/news/...january-4-2022

"B.C. COVID-19: Hospitalization rates still soaring, risk growing for unvaccinated"
➥ https://globalnews.ca/news/8511469/b...te-january-14/

[Scorpius]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

For what it's worth, my gut feel since mid-December is that Omicron hospitalizations in Canada would peak and start to drop before the end of January. One article today suggests they might be peaking now in Montreal.

And it seems that Canada, with similar vaccination rates to Europe, lags them by a few weeks, and Europe's COVID deaths may have peaked and started to decline already.

So I still feel pretty good that by end of January, there will be visible decline in new COVID hospitalizations and deaths in Canada... (but it will be ugly getting to there, and the crisis state of healthcare may will persist )

I don't have a handle on the current US situation.

So I'm still anticipating that the Canada-US border will be open by the time we have cruising weather.

Are there restrictions on boats coming into Canada from the US if everybody is fully vaxxed? I know the restrictions were lifted last summer and I hadn't realized that they had been re-imposed. When did that happen?

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by Scorpius

Are there restrictions on boats coming into Canada from the US if everybody is fully vaxxed? I know the restrictions were lifted last summer and I hadn't realized that they had been re-imposed. When did that happen?

If all fully vaccinated, then people on boat must have valid PCR test (negative result). Entry then allowed.

So yes., border is "open" (for the fully vaccinated with negative PCR).

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Scorpius

Are there restrictions on boats coming into Canada from the US if everybody is fully vaxxed? I know the restrictions were lifted last summer and I hadn't realized that they had been re-imposed. When did that happen?

what sv_pelegia said. Obviously no-one's cruising the big lakes right now. Winter & Omicron... I won't personally consider the Canada/US border "open" til there's no testing requirements, just proof of vaccination.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

As I've said, many times, I'm not in favour of forcing a vaccine on anyone. But neither am I willing to give the hard-core antivaxxer a pass just because they claim to be afraid, or whatever... If they are honestly fearful it is based on misinformation and a misunderstanding of the real risks. And yes, this includes the risks to others.

I can certainly understand these people, just as I can understand flat-earthers, or indeed those that ascribe to any number of magical views of the world. But understanding does not mean acquiescing.

My view is we should continue to reach out to many of the under-vaccinated populations who have good reasons to be hesitant. There are historic contexts which cannot be ignored. And we need to keep finding ways to meet them on their terms. The same goes for swaths of marginalized people, like those purportedly being used in this article. There are still lots of people whose life circumstances make accessing the vaccines hard.

For the rest, I simply think we should continue to put clear guardrails around their privileges in society. We should not force an injection on anyone, but neither do we have to allow these people to put others at unnecessary risk.

Quick, what's the risk of dying of Omicron if you are young and don't have comorbidities? It certainly isn't high enough to mandate vaccination. If it were, we'd also have to mandate vaccination for the flu, and a variety of other illnesses.

As far as risk to others, vaccinated people can spread it as well, and because of public health guidance, may be less cautious around others.

So it's a bit arrogant to assume that someone else isn't informed, or pose a bigger risk to society than a vaccinated person.

[rbk]

Originally Posted by sv_pelagia

If all fully vaccinated, then people on boat must have valid PCR test (negative result). Entry then allowed.

So yes., border is "open" (for the fully vaccinated with negative PCR).

Not just a negative PCR test. About a dozen accepted negative test types OR a confirmed positive test that is 11-180 old.

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by rbk

Not just a negative PCR test. About a dozen accepted negative test types.

Not sure what you mean by this. Canada only accepts PCR ("molecular") tests at border.
https://travel.gc.ca/travel-covid/tr...-entry-testing

[Scorpius]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Quick, what's the risk of dying of Omicron if you are young and don't have comorbidities? It certainly isn't high enough to mandate vaccination. If it were, we'd also have to mandate vaccination for the flu, and a variety of other illnesses.

As far as risk to others, vaccinated people can spread it as well, and because of public health guidance, may be less cautious around others.

So it's a bit arrogant to assume that someone else isn't informed, or pose a bigger risk to society than a vaccinated person.

I don't believe that it is at all arrogant. The unvaccinated person DOES pose a bigger risk to society, and particularly to our health care system, than does the vaccinated. Despite over 80% of the population being vaccinated, our hospitals and ICU's are overwhelmed with the unvaccinated suffering from Covid. And yes, the vaccinated can still catch and spread the disease, but at only 50% the rate of the unvaccinated. Even though you are young and healthy and unlikely to suffer seriously yourself, you can still spread the disease to the elderly and those with, as you say, co-morbidities - and since the unvaccinated are twice as likely to catch the disease as the vaccinated, and are likely to have it much longer and more severely, they are much more likely to spread it than are the vaccinated.

I've been convinced that mandatory vaccination is not the way to go, but I am a firm believer in the "tightening vice" approach and I applaud Quebec for their move to limit access to liquor stores and marijuana dispensaries to the vaccinated (although I'm not so sure about their plan to tax the unvaccinated). I wish we would do the same - and more - here in BC. Personally I feel it should be required to show proof of vaccination to enter any indoor space, including stores, etc. (with the possible exception of grocery stores and pharmacies) that is generally open to the public. Also, the WCB (WorkSafe BC) should require ALL employees, in every industry, to be vaccinated in order to protect the health of their fellow employees.

BTW, this is a thread for the discussion of Covid in Canada. Your profile does not show a location. Are you in Canada? Are you Canadian?

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Quick, what's the risk of dying of Omicron if you are young and don't have comorbidities? It certainly isn't high enough to mandate vaccination. If it were, we'd also have to mandate vaccination for the flu, and a variety of other illnesses.

As far as risk to others, vaccinated people can spread it as well, and because of public health guidance, may be less cautious around others.

So it's a bit arrogant to assume that someone else isn't informed, or pose a bigger risk to society than a vaccinated person.

Ah, the "flu" argument. Sadly, it's NOT like the flu. The stats are abundantly clear on this. Perhaps you're not aware of the stats?

Not sure where you are writing from, but a KEY point is the important role of social responsibility here in Canada: such as protecting others, protecting our health care systems, etc.

It's not all about the individual.

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

what sv_pelegia said. Obviously no-one's cruising the big lakes right now. Winter & Omicron... I won't personally consider the Canada/US border "open" til there's no testing requirements, just proof of vaccination.

Out here in the GPSW (Great Pacific South West!), friends of mine three years ago took a cruise in February from Everette, WA to Vancouver, and back home through the Gulf Islands. So one "can" boat here year 'round, if you choose to do so. They were wisely dressed and had diesel heat on their boat.


The difficulty in getting the required test to reenter Canada forced me to decline their offer a few weeks ago to visit with them on Lopez Island. That difficulty is based on where you can obtain such a test. To get one if, say, traveling from BC to Ontario required going to Yellowknife, it sure would be considered "difficult". I think the closest place to get one is either Bellingham or Port Townsend, all pretty much truly out of the way when just wanting to hop across Haro Strait to the San Juans.

Canada only accepts PCR ("molecular") tests at border.

Yes, it can be done, but...

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by Scorpius

I don't believe that it is at all arrogant. The unvaccinated person DOES pose a bigger risk to society, and particularly to our health care system, than does the vaccinated. Despite over 80% of the population being vaccinated, our hospitals and ICU's are overwhelmed with the unvaccinated suffering from Covid. And yes, the vaccinated can still catch and spread the disease, but at only 50% the rate of the unvaccinated. Even though you are young and healthy and unlikely to suffer seriously yourself, you can still spread the disease to the elderly and those with, as you say, co-morbidities - and since the unvaccinated are twice as likely to catch the disease as the vaccinated, and are likely to have it much longer and more severely, they are much more likely to spread it than are the vaccinated....
...
...

This is a well organized summary of reality.
I'm not sure why it seems to be so incomprehensible to altogether too many people.

[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

So it's a bit arrogant to assume

Pot, meet kettle...