Canadian COVID-19 News

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

...we do have to understand that there will be future variants, and there's no necessity for these variants to be less virulent or contagious. Statistically, it is more likely to have genetic mutations which make a pathogen less dangerous, but there's no biological necessity for this. It could go the other way.

It could yes, but the "success" of Omicron, together with vaccination, means that the majority of people will soon have had some exposure to the COVID family, and future variants will no longer be "novel" to our immune systems.

And yes, we really have to get more vaccine out into the rest of the world. I would like to criminalize the wasting of vaccines in the west , but it seems it's logistically tough to ship and distribute stockpiled vaccine that's near to expiry.

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

1
Vaccination:

1. reduces the chance of catching it
2. greatly reduces the severity and duration of illness if caught
3. from 2, greatly reduces the probability of immediate or future serious health effects ("long COVID")
4. from 1&2, makes the vaccinated person a lower risk for spreading it further

1

I haven't seen that it reduces the chance of catching it. Cornell University was 97% vaccinated and Omicron ripped through there like fire in a paper factory. This largely debunks #1 and 4. So do NYS statistics, and though NYS isn't politically Canada, we're pretty close otherwise.

I was vaccinated, and I got it, and I passed it to vaccinated family.

Reduces severity, maybe. It wasn't bad when I got it. But the long-term effects of the vaccine is something we (me & doctor) don't have close to under control. I may be a minor statistic, but it's all statistics until it's ME! But OK, based on hospitalizations, this does appear to be correct.

[N Coast Murray]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

...Yes, I believe that obesity contributes to hospitalization...

You never responded to this... https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3560281

I will recap. In Canada:

1) 3.8 million are unvaccinated

2) 7.3 million are obese

3) 9.9 million are overweight.

If your theory were true, then obese/overweight people would outnumber unvaccinated people in hospitals, which isn't the case.

I'll admit that being obese/overweight can add to the complications of Covid, but not to the degree you seem to be suggesting.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

I haven't seen that it reduces the chance of catching it. Cornell University was 97% vaccinated and Omicron ripped through there like fire in a paper factory. This largely debunks #1 and 4. So do NYS statistics, and though NYS isn't politically Canada, we're pretty close otherwise.

• A two-shot course of mRNA vaccines or the one-shot J&J vaccine seem to be less effective against the Omicron variant, especially for infection.
  
  
• Data so far indicates that mRNA vaccines (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna) offer the most promising protection against both infection and hospitalization, in line with the CDC’s recommendations.
  
  
• Current figures suggest that vaccines offer 30 to 40 percent protection against infection and around 70 percent protection against hospitalization without boosters.
  
  
• Newer data is confirming that a third dose increases antibody production and boosts effectiveness against infection to around 75 percent, and 88 percent for severe disease.

[one source. There are others]

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Vaccination:

1. reduces the chance of catching it
2. greatly reduces the severity and duration of illness if caught
3. from 2, greatly reduces the probability of immediate or future serious health effects ("long COVID")
4. from 1&2, makes the vaccinated person a lower risk for spreading it further

Well said, although I would offer a slight amendment. Immunity, through vaccination or exposure, does not reduce the change of catching the virus. The only thing that does that is by not being exposed; so distancing, masks, etc. What vaccination, or prior exposure, gives is a greatly enhanced ability to fight off the virus, so it does not develop into disease.

I know you know this LE, but for those unclear on the concept, Covid-19 is the disease. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus. The virus causes the disease, but just because you carry the virus, does not mean you will develop the disease.


Ah, I see TP has made the same point.


As for lets, I give up. The adage, "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink," seems apt here. In this case, you can lead a person to the information, but you can't make him understand.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

It could yes, but the "success" of Omicron, together with vaccination, means that the majority of people will soon have had some exposure to the COVID family, and future variants will no longer be "novel" to our immune systems.

Yes, that's what we expect will happen. But this virus has surprised our best minds many times. I think a cautious approach remains wise, especially while the virus has so much opportunity to evolve.

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

And yes, we really have to get more vaccine out into the rest of the world. I would like to criminalize the wasting of vaccines in the west , but it seems it's logistically tough to ship and distribute stockpiled vaccine that's near to expiry.

Agreed. Like everything in this world, the rich get to step to the font of the line, and we trickle-down whatever scraps we don't really want. But in this case, this approach is affecting us rather directly. We should distribute the vaccine widely out of pure self-interest.

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

I haven't seen that it reduces the chance of catching it. . So do NYS statistics, and though NYS isn't politically Canada, we're pretty close otherwise.

As you mentioned New York....

New York City statistics: CASE RATE


Shows clearly that UNvaccinated have much higher rate of infection, even during Omicron. Similarly, UNvaccinated have much higher rates for hospitalization or death.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/...ata.page#daily

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by N Coast Murray

You never responded to this... https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3560281

I will recap. In Canada:

1) 3.8 million are unvaccinated

2) 7.3 million are obese

3) 9.9 million are overweight.

If your theory were true, then obese/overweight people would outnumber unvaccinated people in hospitals, which isn't the case.

I'll admit that being obese/overweight can add to the complications of Covid, but not to the degree you seem to be suggesting.

I never made that comparison.

All I said was that obesity contributes to hospitalization.

So does the lack of vaccination.

If you're obese (or have any comorbidities), you should ABSOLUTELY be vaccinated.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

I haven't seen that it reduces the chance of catching it. Cornell University was 97% vaccinated and Omicron ripped through there like fire in a paper factory. This largely debunks #1 and 4. So do NYS statistics, and though NYS isn't politically Canada, we're pretty close otherwise.

I was vaccinated, and I got it, and I passed it to vaccinated family.

Reduces severity, maybe. It wasn't bad when I got it. But the long-term effects of the vaccine is something we (me & doctor) don't have close to under control. I may be a minor statistic, but it's all statistics until it's ME! But OK, based on hospitalizations, this does appear to be correct.

BINGO.

This guy gets it.

Omicron ripped through the vaccinated population, and is still doing that.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

BINGO.

This guy gets it.

Omicron ripped through the vaccinated population, and is still doing that.

Well, it "rips" slower through the vaccinated, especially the boosted, and creates a smaller wake. How's that?

As I just linked, vaccination does provide greater resistance to catching Omicron. It's not complete protection, and other measures (masks in public, social distancing, etc) are still advisable. Did the Cornell kids drop their guard?

[N Coast Murray]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

I never made that comparison.

All I said was that obesity contributes to hospitalization.

So does the lack of vaccination.

If you're obese (or have any comorbidities), you should ABSOLUTELY be vaccinated.

Makes sense to me

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Well, it "rips" slower through the vaccinated, especially the boosted, and creates a smaller wake. How's that?

As I just linked, vaccination does provide greater resistance to catching Omicron. It's not complete protection, and other measures (masks in public, social distancing, etc) are still advisable. Did the Cornell kids drop their guard?

Don't know what you mean by the Cornell kids dropping guard. Reportedly, the campus population was 97% with 2 doses, and Omicron showed up and quickly infected many of them- I don't have the numbers but I'm sure they're online. It wasn't until then that "third dose" became daily news around here.

Pelagia- PLEASE, if I mention New York again, I mean UPSTATE NY, that area that butts up to Canada and a bit south. NOT New York City, which is a different country. Up this way we could be considered Lake Ontariowans or New Yorkanadians, there is nothing in common with the city except a name.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

Don't know what you mean by the Cornell kids dropping guard.

By that, I meant what other precautions were they taking, like masks, distancing, etc? I assume they were back to in-class teaching. End of term partying, maybe?

Anyway, we all agree that vaccination does not prevent all catching or spreading of Omicron.

[sv_pelagia]

COVID-19 HOSPITALIZATION RISK (by age, comorbidities and age) in BC

Omicron wave much lower risk of hospitalization
Age is largest risk factor
Vaccinated much lower risk of hospitalization
1-2 co-morbidities low risk if triple vaccinated

As a triple-vaccinated 64-69 yr old with 1-2 comorbidities, I have lower risk for hospitalization than an unvaccinated 21-year-old (with zero comorbidities)



From Bonnie Henry's January 21, 2022 presentation
https://youtu.be/p2OPZGa_Jn0
(still waiting tables to be posted to BC-CDC website....)

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

By that, I meant what other precautions were they taking, like masks, distancing, etc? I assume they were back to in-class teaching. End of term partying, maybe?

Anyway, we all agree that vaccination does not prevent all catching or spreading of Omicron.

Ivy league college kids? Oh, no, they were very, very good.

Distance? About 6 kg/sq cm. Hah. I'm sure they wore their masks except when consuming alcohol and, well, never mind.

IIRC it was after end of semester but they were still on campus; so if my memory serves, that means they didn't have a lot to do...use your imagination. :-)

That said, they were vaccinated, and even if swapping spit, they did still get it. Fast. And a lot of them. So yeah, yeah, I know, not best practices, but still demonstrates that against Omi the double vaccine was relatively ineffective in stopping spread under the situation.

Our local school district is live in class, masked, and there's a steady stream of in-school transmission. They tried to hide it a long time, but finally had to give up [you can stretch statistics a long way, but there is a limit] and now it's just part of the statistics.