Canadian COVID-19 News

[hpeer]

My Aunt in Gander tells me she does not know when she will get the vaccine. So far they have only vaccinated those at the “old folks home” as she calls it. My Aunt is 96.

I have gotten both shots and my Wife just got scheduled for her first shot Monday.

[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Was that the one by Mike & Jayne? They have their boat in the same marina as mine (Lewisporte), and have become new friends. I tuned into their presentation at the Toronto virtual show -- just to remind me of what used to be... .

Not trying to compete with their show, but if you need more enticements, I've got a few photos and vids from our recent (2019) journey around the northern peninsula:

August 2019 – CLAFC – Creativity, Learning, Adventure, Freedom & Cessation

That was them. Pretty enthusiastic boosters of a place I have only seen by land and would love to see by water. I had dug though your images of L'anse eax meadows. It was the one place we had to miss on our road trip there. The trip from Gross Morne to Lewisport was pretty fascinating reading.

[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by sv_pelagia

Can't speak for NFLD - - sorry Mike - - but nothing has prevented you from coming to your boat in BC (assuming you are anywhere in Canada).

Many here in BC would like BC to somehow institute formal travel restrictions into the Province, but this hasn't happened and it's highly unlikey it will (Bonnie Henry and Gov see it as unworkable and possibly unconstitutional, the former reason being the most recent.)

So, maybe we'll see you on the water this summer

It's not so much the laws as "why take a risk after putting up with all this cr@p for a full year." I am in no rush to push the boundaries and wind up coming sick at the 11th hour. Still we have our sights set on June and are playing it day-by-day.

[Kelkara]

Originally Posted by sv_pelagia

Can't speak for NFLD - - sorry Mike - - but nothing has prevented you from coming to your boat in BC (assuming you are anywhere in Canada).

Many here in BC would like BC to somehow institute formal travel restrictions into the Province, but this hasn't happened and it's highly unlikey it will (Bonnie Henry and Gov see it as unworkable and possibly unconstitutional, the former reason being the most recent.)

So, maybe we'll see you on the water this summer

And that is why I haven't gone out to my boat this winter ... I want to be welcome in the community when I arrive ... hopefully things will be a bit more tolerant by Spring.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by LifePart2

Any individual hoping to get on a plane has a risk of being true positive. That risk is equal to the current prevalence of the disease. In almost every country that is under 3%. So, of a 1,000,000 people wanting to fly, 30,000 are infected. They then get a PCR test. Onbly those testing negative get to fly. The false negative might be 1%. So of those 30,000 300 will be false negative, ie they will be infected but look like they are not. They will get to fly when they shouldn't. At the same time, of the 970,000 that tested negative, 9,700 will be false positives who then don't get to fly.

So putting that together, there will be 970,300 people who get to fly, of which 0.03% who will be false negative.

We then test them when they get off the plane.

To bring that back to the airplane with 200 passengers, this will produce 2 false positive, 0.06 true positives (the false ones who now get picked up) and 0.0006 new false negative.

Now suppose we test them again after a few more days. The two false positives will get cleared (but will have to spend 2 weeks in quarantine) wihle 1% of the 199.94 people who are true negatives will be false positive, ie another 2 people who will now be required to sit in a quarantine they don't need.

But now the polititians can point to FOUR people coming on the plane where were active 'cases' (no, they are not), thus justifying their hysteria.

And the new batch of false negatives? Well, there were only 0.06 people on the plane who were hidden positives. Of those, 1% ie 0.0006 will test false negative again. So the chances of them slipping through into the community undetected are miniscule.

If we then test them again, we get yet another batch of false positives, and so the problem gets compounded each time.

The false negative rate only becomes important when the background prevalence itself becomes significant.

Noel

Not sure where you are getting the false negative numbers, but a little google will show you numbers much higher, in some cases 20%. Having had a fair number of PCR nasal and throat swabs I can attest to wide variance in the swabbing approach.

Trying to use broadly averaged false pos or false neg numbers doesn't do much for any specific plane landing. A take a 787 arriving where the previous two flights were cancelled making this one overly crowded. Add a family of 5 who won the lottery and got exposed at the sushi place after their pre flying test 3 days ago, who just happen to be genetically 50% superspreaders.

[Montanan]

Yahoo News Canada
COVID-19 vaccines in Canada: This is when you can get vaccinated across each province

https://www.yahoo.com/news/canada-co...225342127.html

[Mike OReilly]

Looks like I won't see my jab until August at the earliest. Ah well... at least it's coming.

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Looks like I won't see my jab until August at the earliest. Ah well... at least it's coming.

At least you have a target date

A Canadian friend of mine from the tiny Atoll of Chuuk in Micronesia, is getting his second jab of Moderna next week, yet we get no updates on progress here in the Philippines for a foreign residents vaccination plan.

We are not asking for free treatment just an indication of some proactive thinking!

[sv_pelagia]

Based on what we heard on today's British Columbia vaccination update, I am optimistic that we (66 yrs) will have 1st shot by/in May. 2nd shot 4 months later.

Just in time for BC cruising.

[Mike OReilly]

Yeah, I'm not really complaining. I leave that to the politicians and the media . I know I'm going to get the shot much sooner than the vast majority of the world's population. I'm still relatively young (53), and healthy, and certainly not at risk like frontline workers or the very elderly. So I can wait.

Still bites that I will likely lose another cruising season to this pandemic. But I recognize mine is very much a First World Problem.

[NPCampbell]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Yeah, I'm not really complaining. I leave that to the politicians and the media . I know I'm going to get the shot much sooner than the vast majority of the world's population. I'm still relatively young (53), and healthy, and certainly not at risk like frontline workers or the very elderly. So I can wait.

Still bites that I will likely lose another cruising season to this pandemic. But I recognize mine is very much a First World Problem.

I was kind of surprised at how slow the rollout was going in Canada, 4.7 doses per 100. This is compared to 7.4 for the entire EU, 22.5 for the US and 30.8 for the UK. I thought they secured deals with the manufacturers while the FDA was still dragging their feet to approve the vaccine?

[Midnight Son]

We lost the ability to manufacture our own vaccines, I think over 10 years ago, I could be wrong.

So we are at the mercy of the market.
Best wishes all.

[NaClyDog]

Originally Posted by NPCampbell

I was kind of surprised at how slow the rollout was going in Canada, 4.7 doses per 100. This is compared to 7.4 for the entire EU, 22.5 for the US and 30.8 for the UK. I thought they secured deals with the manufacturers while the FDA was still dragging their feet to approve the vaccine?

We do have deals with just about every maker. These were made well before anyone announced any candidates but our issue is we have zero domestic production. This one clearly falls in the category of "play stupid games, win stupid prizes".

[hpeer]

Mike,

You clearly need a second boat.

[pcmm]

Originally Posted by Midnight Son

We lost the ability to manufacture our own vaccines, I think over 10 years ago, I could be wrong.

So we are at the mercy of the market.
Best wishes all.

We still manufacture our own vaccines, BUT we don't have a facility that is equiped to manufacture THIS particular type of vaccine. Add to that that our govt (for some strange reason) thought initially that China was the best place to line up to order vaccines from so we were a bit late to the order desk with the reliable sources.. We've even had to dip into COVAX to get supply from a pool that was supposed to be destined for 3rd-world