Canadian COVID-19 News

[Montanan]

Not just in Canada are Covid cases rising. Pretty much a surge everywhere.

The U.S. added 442,676 cases of coronavirus over the past week, an increase of 16% from the week before. New coronavirus cases leaped 64% in New York in the week ending Sunday, with 67,963 new cases reported compared to 41,406 a week earlier. Appears to be getting a lot more younger people being infected.

And this despite the appreciable rate of vaccinations, averaging about 2.5 million per day.

Fauci blamed the combination of new more contagious variants, increased travel [spring break] and loosening of Covid safety protocols.

A new surge doesn't bode well for near term reduction of travel restrictions and opening of the borders.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Not just in Canada are Covid cases rising. Pretty much a surge everywhere....

A new surge doesn't bode well for near term reduction of travel restrictions and opening of the borders.

Yes indeed. In the Johns Hopkins data presentation, all the currently "most affected" countries are now showing small but definitive increases in the infection curve. And that includes a couple of countries who are leading the globe in vaccination rates.

Hopefully this is a temporary set back and not a true third wave.

[Midnight Son]

I fear that it is the third wave, it is now a race between vaccinations, and variants infection rate.

[GordMay]

“COVID-19 Hospitalizations, ICU Admissions and Deaths Associated with the New Variants of Concern” ~ by the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table

“New variants of concern (VOCs)now account for 67% of all Ontario SARS-CoV-2infections. Compared with early variants of SARS-CoV-2, VOCs are associated with a 63% increased risk of hospitalization, a 103% increased risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and a 56% increased risk of death due to COVID-19.

VOCs are having a substantial impact on Ontario’s healthcare system. On March 28,2021, the daily number of new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Ontario reached the daily number of cases observed near the height of the second wave, at the start of the province-wide lockdown, on December 26, 2020.

The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 is now 21% higher than at the start of the province-wide lockdown, while ICU occupancy is 28% higher (Figure 1). The percentage of COVID-19 patients in ICUs who are younger than 60 years is about 50% higher now than it was prior to the start of the province-wide lockdown.Because the increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalization, ICU admission and death with VOCs is most pronounced 14 to 28 days after diagnosis, there will be significant delays until the full burden to the health care system becomes apparent ...”

More ➥ https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-c..._published.pdf


“New data shows COVID-19 pandemic now 'completely out of control' in Ontario, key scientific adviser says” ~ by Lauren Pelley, CBC News
"... Variants that are more deadly are circulating widely, new daily infections have reached the same number at the height of the second wave, and the number of people hospitalized is now more than 20 per cent higher than at the start of the last provincewide lockdown, states an analysis from Ontario's COVID-19 science advisory table published on Monday night ...”
More ➥ https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...ario-1.5968720

[Mike OReilly]

CBC: Canada's nursing homes have worst record for COVID-19 deaths among wealthy nations: report

Canada has the worst record for COVID-19 deaths in long-term care homes compared with other wealthy countries, according to a new report released on Tuesday by the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI).

The study found that the proportion of deaths in nursing homes represented 69 per cent of Canada's overall COVID-19 deaths, which is significantly higher than the international average of 41 per cent.
...
The study, which primarily focused on the first six months of the pandemic, found that across the country, nursing home residents received less medical care. They had fewer visits from doctors, and there were also fewer hospital transfers when compared with other years.
...
Several provincial inquiries are now underway in an attempt to figure out what happened in long-term care homes during the pandemic and to recommend changes. Staffing continues to be an issue.

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Yes indeed. In the Johns Hopkins data presentation, all the currently "most affected" countries are now showing small but definitive increases in the infection curve. And that includes a couple of countries who are leading the globe in vaccination rates.

Hopefully this is a temporary set back and not a true third wave.

That graph would he so much more useful it it were on a normalized basis. Say per 100,000. And so easy to do.

You ever hear of Edward Tuftee?

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by hpeer

That graph would he so much more useful it it were on a normalized basis. Say per 100,000. And so easy to do.

You ever hear of Edward Tuftee?

No, who is Tuftee?

The Johns Hopkins graph shows absolute numbers, 7-day average. Here's the same data normalized to cases/million. Shows the same trend.

I added Canada to the graph. Same trend.


https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

[pjShap]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

CBC: Canada's nursing homes have worst record for COVID-19 deaths among wealthy nations: report

I don't think the quoted statistic is meaningful- percent of overall deaths occurring in nursing homes. Both the numerator (deaths in nursing homes) and denominator (total deaths) are variables. If a country had 1 death, and it occurred in a nursing home, that number would be 100% but we would say the country had done very well.

[pjShap]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

No, who is Tuftee?

Edward Tufte wrote a beautiful, thoughtful book called 'The Visual Display of Quantitative Information', discussing, explaining and showing how to present information most meaningfully and intelligibly.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Midnight Son

I fear that it is the third wave, it is now a race between vaccinations, and variants infection rate.

... yeah, seems like we are staring down another wave, right at time when most everyone just wants this to end . It's frustrating that they still haven't really ramped up vaccinations, though the city is claiming 493,867 to date. Maybe it's just my perception. We've been registered for 10+ days with a pharmacy chain that's currently doing our age group, but so far not a peep regarding a possible date.

And yesterday, one of my wife's co-workers' daughter has just gotten ill, so now the daughter and co-worker are being tested today, and depending on that result, my wife's employer might shut down, and we might have to bail on visiting my Mom at Easter. Bah! enough, already!

But hey, one month to launch

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by pjShap

I don't think the quoted statistic is meaningful- percent of overall deaths occurring in nursing homes. Both the numerator (deaths in nursing homes) and denominator (total deaths) are variables. If a country had 1 death, and it occurred in a nursing home, that number would be 100% but we would say the country had done very well.

The money quote is:

The study found that the proportion of deaths in nursing homes represented 69 per cent of Canada's overall COVID-19 deaths, which is significantly higher than the international average of 41 per cent.

and also

The study's authors found that during the first wave last spring, the total number of resident deaths was higher than in the years prior to the pandemic, even in places with fewer COVID-19 deaths.

and that in some provinces, the second wave hit these homes harder than the first, which is failure to make sufficient improvements.

...which, when you put it all together, is pretty clear... and damning. Basically, that means we've done a decent job at preventing transmission within the general population, but kind of sucked at protecting the institutionalized and frail.

I'll give them 20 years to get their acts together; I might be a client by then. (Though I'd rather jump off a bridge, frankly)

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

...which, when you put it all together, is pretty clear... and damning. Basically, that means we've done a decent job at preventing transmission within the general population, but kind of sucked at protecting the institutionalized and frail.

Yes indeed. What it really points to is the systematic under-resourcing we've allowed to happen at these institutions. Staffing levels, and how much these people get paid, added with the dearth of actual oversight (at least in Ontario), have all helped create this disaster.

It doesn't have to be this way, and hopefully will change going forward (although I'm not optimistic).

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

No, who is Tuftee?

The Johns Hopkins graph shows absolute numbers, 7-day average. Here's the same data normalized to cases/million. Shows the same trend.

I added Canada to the graph. Same trend.


https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases

Save up to attend one of his seminars, ain’t cheap. Life changing math. He has several books, the first was best.

https://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/

And thanks for the second graph, far better than the first.

[hpeer]

Mike,

I think this one shows a different story.

Not contradicting your point, making a different point.

Fully HALF of the worlds population exists between China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the assorted SE Asian countries. Covid is mostly a non-event for half the world population.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Mike,
Not contradicting your point, making a different point.

Fully HALF of the worlds population exists between China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the assorted SE Asian countries. Covid is mostly a non-event for half the world population.

There are many differences between countries that influence that count. Just a few:

• really strong initial measures (eg Vietnam)
• cold "western" countries have more people mingling indoors
• cold western countries tend to warehouse their elderly and infirm, as opposed to extended families
• some of the poorer, high-population countries are unable to examine/test every death
• some of the poorer, high-population countries experience epidemic illnesses more frequently. This may confer some early protection, AND covid's death numbers there aren't wildly out of line with their pre-pandemic rates of death from respiratory illnesses.
• some countries are possibly fudging their numbers

So for many poorer countries covid is "just another event", whereas for the flu-vaccinated, medicated west, it was very unusual.