corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by GordMay

I believe that "no symptoms" would equal "asymptomatic".
From the previously cited article (post # 352), “Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)”
“... We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases....
... These undocumented infections often experience mild, limited or no symptoms and hence go unrecognized, and, depending on their contagiousness and numbers, can expose a far greater portion of the population to virus than would otherwise occur...”

Like I said, mild symptoms aren’t the same as asymptomatic. Asymptomatic is also different than undocumented.

To try and conflate those is a mistake, and has a good chance of confusing people.

This is why I made the comment.

While people should treat everyone else as if they have the virus, I don’t think muddling terms is quite right, either.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

............

While people should treat everyone else as if they have the virus, I don’t think muddling terms is quite right, either.

Even better - if everyone considered they had the virus themselves and acted accordingly to minimise the transmission to others, we would be in a far better place next month.

[GordMay]

From the linked article:
“... These undocumented infections often experience mild, limited or no symptoms ...”
asymptomatic: (of a condition or a person) producing or showing no symptoms.


Nit fully picked.

[Montanan]

Spain announces restrictions on foreigners entering through ports and airports starting from this evening and for a month [until at least April 21] due to the Coronavirus.

[Montanan]

Aloha.

Hawaii's governor has instituted a mandatory 14-day self-quarantine starting Thursday of all people traveling to the state as part of efforts to fight the spread of coronavirus .

The order applies to returning residents as well as visitors. It applies to all arrivals at Hawaii airports from the continental U.S. and international destinations and extends to other private and commercial aircraft.

“With the majority of Hawaiʻi’s COVID-19 cases linked to travel, it is critical that we further mitigate the spread of the virus by both residents and visitors who are coming from out-of-state,” Gov. David Ige said in a statement. “This plan was developed in collaboration with our county mayors and Hawaiʻi’s business, community and visitor industry leaders.”

Returning residents must quarantine themselves at home, the governor's office said. Visitors must quarantine themselves in their hotel room or rented lodging.

People under quarantine may only leave their homes for medical emergencies or to seek medical care, the governor's office said. They cannot visit public spaces such as pools, fitness centers or restaurants.

Failure to follow the order is a misdemeanor and punishable by a maximum fine of $5,000, or imprisonment of not more than one year, or both, the governor's office said.

“These actions are extreme, but they will help flatten the curve and lay the groundwork for a quicker recovery. We need everyone to comply with these quarantine orders to help protect Hawaiʻi’s residents,” Ige said.

[fivecapes]

Iceland, country with highest ratio of tests per capita reports half of positive test cases showed no symptoms.

"Iceland’s population puts it in the unique position of having very high testing capabilities with help from the Icelandic medical research company deCode Genetics, who are offering to perform large scale testing," Thorolfur Guðnason, Iceland’s chief epidemiologist, told BuzzFeed News.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonard...esting-iceland


“You cannot fight the fire blindfolded, and we cannot stop this pandemic if we don’t know who is infected," director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said this week. "We have a simple message for all countries: Test, test, test. Test every suspected case.”




To those having difficulty discerning, this is not media hype.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by fivecapes

Iceland, country with highest ratio of tests per capita reports half of positive test cases showed no symptoms.

"Iceland’s population puts it in the unique position of having very high testing capabilities with help from the Icelandic medical research company deCode Genetics, who are offering to perform large scale testing," Thorolfur Guðnason, Iceland’s chief epidemiologist, told BuzzFeed News.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonard...esting-iceland


“You cannot fight the fire blindfolded, and we cannot stop this pandemic if we don’t know who is infected," director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said this week. "We have a simple message for all countries: Test, test, test. Test every suspected case.”

To those having difficulty discerning, this is not media hype.

I wouldn’t classify that as media hype. They’re just reporting numbers. They’ve administered 3800 tests. Just over 200 positive cases. Total.

I also wouldn’t confuse it with scientifically validated study. It falls in the category of “anecdotal”. The numbers are too small. Those testing numbers are not relevant to the situation in the US.

I wish we had that kind of testing in January in the US and other countries. We didn’t. If we have the resources to efficiently do that now, I’m all for it. According to the CDC, we don’t.

[delmarrey]

How can you have testing kits for something you didn’t know existed until several weeks ago?
Or, even knew it was a threat until the Chinese finally spoke up?
Isn’t each test kit specific to each virus?
Or, one kit fits all?

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

I also wouldn’t confuse it with scientifically validated study. It falls in the category of “anecdotal”. The numbers are too small. Those testing numbers are not relevant to the situation in the US.

The big issue I see is they don't explain how test subjects are selected. To get good numbers, the researcher needs to randomly select people with no knowledge of their current condition.

If people are self selecting, odds are good people with symptoms may be selecting themselves, so it still a distorted sample over representing those with the virus.

[fivecapes]

Talk about missing the point, which is a statistically significant proportion of tested cases in Iceland were asymptomatic. How do you randomly select for that?

Anyway.

This is alledged by a study in China that claimed 30%.

Another study by Hiroshi Nishiura, an epidemiologist at Hokkaido University, claimed 31% of Japanese evacuees from Wuhan were asymptomatic.

“Korea currently has a significantly higher rate of asymptomatic cases than other countries, perhaps due to our extensive testing,” Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of South Korea’s CDC, told a press briefing on March 16. They claim more than 20% remained without symptoms until they were discharged.

[GordMay]

Vò, a town of roughly 3,400 people located west of Venice, has effectively stopped its local outbreak by testing — and retesting — every single resident, regardless of whether they showed any symptoms.
What they learned, is that 25 per cent had influenza-like symptoms, and 75 per cent were completely asymptomatic. They were completely unaware.
Given the high number of people, who’ve tested positive, but who didn't show symptoms, the takeaway for other countries is to test widely, catch all possible cases early, and isolate them to prevent the virus from spreading like wildfire through a community.

Everybody wants to know exactly what role people with asymptomatic, or subclinical infections are playing in transmission. The simple fact is, without widespread testing, we still don't know.

Testing is not a luxury, WHO officials stress. Rather, it is the key to containing the spread of the virus. "You cannot fight a fire blindfolded. And we cannot stop this pandemic if we don't know who is infected," Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO's director-general, said in a briefing last Monday.
“WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 16 March 2020"
➥ https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/deta...-16-march-2020

One study*, published in the journal Science, found COVID-19 patients in the epicentre of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, with mild, limited or no symptoms went "unrecognized" and exposed "a far greater portion of the population to virus than would otherwise occur."
This, previously linked, study concluded that these "undocumented infections" were the source of transmission for up to 79 per cent of documented cases in the city of Wuhan.
“Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2)” ~ by Ruiyun Li et al.
*➥ https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...e.abb3221.full

I understand that universal, or just widespread, testing is a logistics/organizational and supply chain nightmare.
It's hard!
It's probably wise.

We might take instruction from JFK’s inspiring 1962 Moon Speech:
➥ https://er.jsc.nasa.gov/seh/ricetalk.htm

[Pelagic]

I think it is good to remind ourselves that a positive attitude has in itself healing benefits.

Those pushing the use of Anti Malarial drugs and Vitamin D are offering a win win scenario partly because of the Placebo Effect

https://www.health.harvard.edu/menta...placebo-effect

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

I think it is good to remind ourselves that a positive attitude has in itself healing benefits.

Those pushing the use of Anti Malarial drugs and Vitamin D are offering a win win scenario partly because of the Placebo Effect

https://www.health.harvard.edu/menta...placebo-effect

Most things that reduce stress should be assumed to be helpful during a crisis.

FDA Approves Sale Of Prescription Placebo

"We couldn't be more thrilled to finally get this wonder drug out of the labs and into consumers' medicine cabinets," said Tami Erickson, a spokeswoman for AstraZeneca. "Studies show placebo to be effective in the treatment of many ailments and disorders, ranging from lower-back pain to erectile dysfunction to nausea."

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Singularity

Most things that reduce stress should be assumed to be helpful during a crisis.

FDA Approves Sale Of Prescription Placebo

"We couldn't be more thrilled to finally get this wonder drug out of the labs and into consumers' medicine cabinets," said Tami Erickson, a spokeswoman for AstraZeneca. "Studies show placebo to be effective in the treatment of many ailments and disorders, ranging from lower-back pain to erectile dysfunction to nausea."

Last part of that article:

"Despite such ringing endorsements, some members of the medical community have spoken out against placebo's approval, saying that the drug's wide range of side effects is a cause for concern.

"Yes, placebo has benefits, but studies link it to a hundred different side effects, from lower-back pain to erectile dysfunction to nausea," drug researcher Patrick Wheeler said. "Placebo wreaked havoc all over the body, with no rhyme or reason. Basically, whichever side effects were included on the questionnaire, we found in research subjects."

Added Wheeler: "We must not introduce placebo to the public until we pinpoint exactly how and why it works. The drug never should have advanced beyond the stage of animal testing, which, for some reason, was totally ineffective in determining its effectiveness."

In spite of the confusing data, drug makers say placebo is safe.

"The only side effect consistent in all test subjects was a negligible one—an almost imperceptible elevation in blood-glucose levels," French said. "It's unfair to the American people to withhold a drug so many of them desperately think they need."

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Last part of that article:

"Despite such ringing endorsements, some members of the medical community have spoken out against placebo's approval, saying that the drug's wide range of side effects is a cause for concern.

"Yes, placebo has benefits, but studies link it to a hundred different side effects, from lower-back pain to erectile dysfunction to nausea," drug researcher Patrick Wheeler said. "Placebo wreaked havoc all over the body, with no rhyme or reason. Basically, whichever side effects were included on the questionnaire, we found in research subjects."

Added Wheeler: "We must not introduce placebo to the public until we pinpoint exactly how and why it works. The drug never should have advanced beyond the stage of animal testing, which, for some reason, was totally ineffective in determining its effectiveness."

In spite of the confusing data, drug makers say placebo is safe.

"The only side effect consistent in all test subjects was a negligible one—an almost imperceptible elevation in blood-glucose levels," French said. "It's unfair to the American people to withhold a drug so many of them desperately think they need."

]
demanding placebo studies at this time is a crock as italy and other nations are finding relief from the actual drugs.
the side effects of the actual meds is yes a risk, but the alternative is a monster of an interstitial pneumonia most really donot need to suffer.
these meds have already been used to treat malaria, lupus and rheumatoid arthritis.
as an alternative to ventilator death i will be purchasing these and some antivirals recommended by other nations than usa for use in treatment and prevention of said fruitbat virus from hell. yes i am high risk an dyes only 4000 ventilators in this nation i prefer the medicinal alternative to slow --but is it--8 days from onset of symptoms to agonizing death. lung wracking interstitial pneumonia says emergency to me
enjoy your placebo. i choose cure and prevention.
ps i lost respect for harvard medical school when i learned the three alleged professors linked to this virus and its transfer to chinese laboratory are of harvard.
i have much more respect for the sleep deprived front line medical staff fighting this issue without proper masks and equipment and not enough ventilators. i also have more respect for the survivors of this gawdawful plague