corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[Montanan]

Correction to prior post 404

On Monday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued an executive order instructing passengers on direct flights coming into the state from New York, Connecticut or New Jersey to self-quarantine or isolate for at least 14 days.

[hpeer]

QUESTION

does anyone know of a site that is collecting real time data for the spread and plotting it against the various projection bell curves we were seeing a few days ago.

I’m asking because I think we are getting close to deep enough into this thing to start seeing if the social distancing is actually working. And how far we are from the peak.

If done on a state by state basis, or even city by city would probably be better.

Many thanks

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by hpeer

QUESTION

does anyone know of a site that is collecting real time data for the spread and plotting it against the various projection bell curves we were seeing a few days ago.

I’m asking because I think we are getting close to deep enough into this thing to start seeing if the social distancing is actually working. And how far we are from the peak.

If done on a state by state basis, or even city by city would probably be better.

Many thanks

Not exactly what you asked for but maybe there is something here if you drill down far enough though it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[hpeer]

Wotname,

Thank you and you are correct I’m looking for rates of change.

None-the-less the fatalities per million is interesting.

Seems China did an absolutely miraculous job. Hum?

[Lake-Effect]

A naive question: since COVID-19 in China seems to have been contained, has any other country asked them for the loan or sale of some of their ventilators?

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

A naive question: since COVID-19 in China seems to have been contained, has any other country asked them for the loan or sale of some of their ventilators?

Perhaps import tariffs / trade war between the USA and China. But would seem to be not so much a barrier between say, EU and China which have continued business more normally. Hate that politics, xenophobia, and economic nationalism has come to play but it in fact has.

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by hpeer

...Seems China did an absolutely miraculous job. Hum?

I'd suggest that you're very right to want rate of change data, but I'd suggest that it is very difficult...sort of...to relate one country's experience to that of another.

For example: in studies looking at the effectiveness of different types of masks to protect health workers, Asian studies tend to have subtly better results than ~Western studies. The gestalt-assumption...in my understanding...is that Asian medical workers are, for whatever reason, just better mask-wearers.

Back to Covid. Even IF China has lied/cooked the books/shot dissenters/whatever, they certainly did muster a response that worked.

Presumably South Korea and maybe Germany sort of has the data you're seeking, but I wouldn't look at the American population as being anywhere near as disciplined as the Germans or as shootable as the Chinese. Thus abstracting from the experience in other countries/cultures can be most difficult.

[Montanan]

New guidance for persons that have come from New York city.

The administration remains “deeply concerned about New York City and the New York metro area,” Dr. Deborah Birx said Tuesday, providing additional information on the hotspot and urging anyone who may have left the area to self-quarantine.

“About 56% of all the cases in the United States are coming out of that metro area and 60% of all the new cases are coming out of the metro New York Area and 31% of the people succumbing to this disease,” Birx said at Tuesday’s press briefing.

“It means, because they are still at the 31% mortality compared to the other regions of the country, that we can have a huge impact if we unite together. This means that, as in all places, they have to be following the presidential guidelines … and this will be critical,” she said.

Birx sounded an alarm for any New Yorkers who may have left the region for other parts of the country in recent days.

“To everyone who has left New York over the last few days, because of the rate of the number of cases, you may have been exposed before you left New York and I think like Florida Gov. DeSantis has put out today, everybody who was in New York should be self-quarantining for the next 14 days to ensure that the virus doesn’t spread to others. No matter where they have gone whether it’s Florida or North Carolina or out to the far reaches of Long Island,” she said.

Birx said they are “starting to see new cases across Long Island: That suggest people have left the city.”

She explained that the self-quarantine should be timed based on 14 days after they left the New York area.

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by Wotname

Not exactly what you asked for but maybe there is something here if you drill down far enough though it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

OK let’s try to apply some math and everyone here can tell me where I’m wrong and maybe we can figure something out.

My first stab at estimating number of deaths in the USA.
Lots of it and assumptions here.

Italy has about 113/million.
Assume Italy is 1/2 way through the surge.
Italy’s final rate will be roughly 226/million.
Assume USA does somewhat better than Italy and ends up with 200/million.
330 times 200 is 66,000 deaths.
When we reach 33,000 we will be at the apex.

Thoughts?

[rbk]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

A naive question: since COVID-19 in China seems to have been contained, has any other country asked them for the loan or sale of some of their ventilators?

The Chinese sent a bunch of ventilators, doctors and medical supplies to Italy last week.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by hpeer

OK let’s try to apply some math and everyone here can tell me where I’m wrong and maybe we can figure something out.

My first stab at estimating number of deaths in the USA.
Lots of it and assumptions here.

Italy has about 113/million.
Assume Italy is 1/2 way through the surge.
Italy’s final rate will be roughly 226/million.
Assume USA does somewhat better than Italy and ends up with 200/million.
330 times 200 is 66,000 deaths.
When we reach 33,000 we will be at the apex.

Thoughts?

I think the difficulty remains with incomparable (and insufficient) data. No one knows the number or severity of the tested infections as it is purely dependant of the testing regime.

An example, currently Italy's death rate is much higher than in Australia (ATM). However AFAIK, Italy was testing only the more acute cases while the Australian testing was picking less severe and often mild cases. This skews the data to suggest we (Australia) are doing better but.......

[Montanan]

Oh Canada:

Canada's Trudeau says he may impose further border restrictions with US
From CNN’s Paula Newton


Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he and his officials will "shift our posture," if necessary, when it comes to stricter border controls with the United States.

“We are braced for a broad range of scenarios, we have put contingency plans for next steps depending on what trajectory the virus takes in Canada or indeed around the world," said Trudeau during his daily news conference outside his Ottawa home where he remains in quarantine.

"We are looking at a broad range of things nothing is off the table but we will respond every step of the way with the necessary actions," he said.
Border states including Washington and New York have become Covid-19 hotspots and Canadian officials are becoming more concerned about community spread as hundreds of thousands of Canadians return to the country from the US and beyond.

The Public Health Agency of Canada says it has tested more than 120,000 Canadians to date and there’s an almost equal mix of travel-related and community spread cases across the country. Canada now has at least 2,500 cases of the virus, with cases spiking by at least 25% Tuesday alone. Canada has reported 25 deaths.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by hpeer

OK let’s try to apply some math and everyone here can tell me where I’m wrong and maybe we can figure something out.

My first stab at estimating number of deaths in the USA.
Lots of it and assumptions here.

Italy has about 113/million.
Assume Italy is 1/2 way through the surge.
Italy’s final rate will be roughly 226/million.
Assume USA does somewhat better than Italy and ends up with 200/million.
330 times 200 is 66,000 deaths.
When we reach 33,000 we will be at the apex.

Thoughts?

I don't think Italy is at the apex yet. Also, the cases are mainly in the north.



It would be more realistic (and scary) if you looked at cases/million of just the top half of Italy. On the other hand, they have a higher percentage of older people.

[fivecapes]

Originally Posted by rbk

The Chinese sent a bunch of ventilators, doctors and medical supplies to Italy last week.

Musk donated to LA hospitals 1,255 ventilators which he helped acquire from China.

[Montanan]

The USA State Department has repatriated more than 9,000 Americans from 28 countries amid the coronavirus pandemic, State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus said Tuesday.

The "unprecedented global effort" to repatriate US citizens comes as dozens of countries have shuttered their borders and restricted travel in an attempt to stem the spread of the virus -- leaving thousands of Americans stranded.
However, obstacles remain in getting Americans back home, and some of those who are stranded still feel that they are not getting enough guidance. A senior State Department official announced Tuesday that they were "deploying a senior-level official to travel to Peru and support our aggressive repatriation efforts on the ground" after two planned flights to repatriate some of the hundreds of remaining travelers were delayed.

Tuesday's repatriation update marks a significant increase from Monday, when another senior State Department official told reporters they had brought home more than 5,000 Americans from 17 countries. That official said they were tracking 13,500 Americans seeking assistance abroad.

A third senior State Department official on Tuesday could not offer an updated number of Americans seeking assistance but told reporters that "at least 40 flights" are scheduled over the next six days and they expect 3,400 identified passengers to be on those flights. That official said that about 9,300 Americans had been brought home on 70 flights, stretching back to repatriation flights from Wuhan, China, in January and February.

Asked about the jump in repatriations overnight, a fourth State Department official said that "the numbers are coming in and growing every day."
"Just in the next 48 hours we do have three different cruise ships coming in," they said on a call with reporters. "Each of these are bringing in more and more Americans and we're working hard, around the clock, to bring more and more in."

Ortagus said Tuesday that the effort to date "has involved close collaboration with the US Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Defense, foreign governments, commercial airlines and other private-sector partners, and NGOs."

"The department has never before undertaken an evacuation operation of such geographic breadth, scale and complexity. We are using all the tools at our disposal to overcome logistical and diplomatic challenges and bring Americans home from hard-to-reach areas and cities hardest-hit by the virus," she said.