corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[Montanan]

Coronavirus in Italy, 69,176 total cases and 6,820 deaths. March 24.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by hpeer

QUESTION

does anyone know of a site that is collecting real time data for the spread and plotting it against the various projection bell curves we were seeing a few days ago.

I’m asking because I think we are getting close to deep enough into this thing to start seeing if the social distancing is actually working. And how far we are from the peak.

If done on a state by state basis, or even city by city would probably be better.

Many thanks

Data by US state
https://www.politico.com/interactive...-of-new-cases/

Data by country:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

Other than China, S Korea, Singapore and Japan it is hard to see a bend in the curves from social distancing, contact tracing and treatment. In the US states the Washington graph looks like it might be flattening, but the people on the ground there do not think so.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Paul L

...........

Other than China, S Korea, Singapore and Japan it is hard to see a bend in the curves from social distancing, contact tracing and treatment. In the US states the Washington graph looks like it might be flattening, but the people on the ground there do not think so.

I am not surprised by this. First of all, there will be a 14 day delay (at least) between the action and the result and second, with increased testing, there will be more cases discovered that were hidden before.

This is a very dynamic situation and the data is, at the best, historical and incomplete.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Wotname

I am not surprised by this. First of all, there will be a 14 day delay (at least) between the action and the result and second, with increased testing, there will be more cases discovered that were hidden before.

This is a very dynamic situation and the data is, at the best, historical and incomplete.

If you look at Chinas recent history or the 1918 Spanish Flu the peaks seem to rise and fall over about 6 weeks. The Spanish Flu had 3 fatal peaks.

The data is certainly incomplete for the number of cases. The data for fatalities are pretty good.

[s/v Jedi]

Why is there so much obsession with ventilators? I believe something like 80% of patients who are put on ventilators die... extending the suffering. I hear in places patients choose not to be put on ventilators...

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by s/v Jedi

Why is there so much obsession with ventilators? I believe something like 80% of patients who are put on ventilators die... extending the suffering. I hear in places patients choose not to be put on ventilators...

Maybe it has to do with the 20% who survive?

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Data by US state
https://www.politico.com/interactive...-of-new-cases/

Data by country:
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

Other than China, S Korea, Singapore and Japan it is hard to see a bend in the curves from social distancing, contact tracing and treatment. In the US states the Washington graph looks like it might be flattening, but the people on the ground there do not think so.

Thank you for the link.

If we follow this site then eventually we should be able to see the peak.

[Island Time O25]

FWIW, in one of the official gov't medical reports I glimpsed at, I came up with CPAP as being the equivalent of a ventilator. Not sure if they meant it as a term for ventilation itself or the actual machine. If the latter, there is some comfort in that as many of us have one already. Anyone here with a medical background has a scoop on that?

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by s/v Jedi

Why is there so much obsession with ventilators? I believe something like 80% of patients who are put on ventilators die... extending the suffering. I hear in places patients choose not to be put on ventilators...

You couldn't be more wrong, my friend.

Gotta link? You might be referring to pre-COVID-19 sentiment from old people facing end-of-life choices.

In a minority of cases, COVID-19 causes pneumonia which alone or with knock-on effects leads to death. This happens more often with the old and those with preexisting issues, but has also happened to the young and fit.

A ventilator is sometimes the only way a person with COVID-19-caused pneumonia can receive enough oxygen into their bloodstream at the peak of their illness. With a ventilator, many are kept alive long enough to recover; without- they die.

Alot of people are going to need ventilators... many more than are currently available most places. Read up on NYC's looming shortage of ventilators.

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by Wotname

I think the difficulty remains with incomparable (and insufficient) data. No one knows the number or severity of the tested infections as it is purely dependant of the testing regime.

An example, currently Italy's death rate is much higher than in Australia (ATM). However AFAIK, Italy was testing only the more acute cases while the Australian testing was picking less severe and often mild cases. This skews the data to suggest we (Australia) are doing better but.......

Testing should not effect the deaths per million one way or another. That’s why I was looking at that stat.

[delmarrey]

Originally Posted by s/v Jedi

Why is there so much obsession with ventilators? I believe something like 80% of patients who are put on ventilators die... extending the suffering. I hear in places patients choose not to be put on ventilators...

I, for one, would not choose a ventilator. Between my age and asthma it would just prolog the agony. Just get me some pain relievers and I’ll ride out the storm. If the boat sinks, that’s the way sailors life is.

I just lost an older brother Jan. 7th to lung cancer. He literally called me the day before to say good bye! He’s the second brother lost with lung cancer in a year.

[JPA Cate]

Originally Posted by s/v Jedi

Why is there so much obsession with ventilators? I believe something like 80% of patients who are put on ventilators die... extending the suffering. I hear in places patients choose not to be put on ventilators...

It depends on your age. Young people are likely to survive with the ventilator doing their breathing for them. Use of the ventilator allows their bodies to get the upper hand on the infection, and wipe it out. Elders, much less so. Having enough ventilators for the young and productive of a nation is to its benefit. Plus, it is politically unacceptable to not do enough for the youth of a nation. And for some, also, for the elders. However, the more elder one is, the greater the risk of dying now, from this pandemic, instead of being rolled by a rogue wave, or run over by a beer truck.

The suffering aspect is hard to determine. Even when the person is in a coma, and their "higher" brain is "asleep", it appears their "reptile" brain will have reflex actions that show up as thrashing around momentarily, if their ventilator is moved. To me, when I saw this last November, following the simplistic description above, it still looked like "suffering" to me, but the ones with the medical educations said my sister in law was not suffering. They were quite clear, at least they believed she was not "suffering", and I would have noticed any incongruence between their words and behavior. Possibly the people who sit the death vigils suffer as well, but the pain is emotional, not whole body pain.

Certainly we have the right to say we do not want our bodies to have the ventilator inserted. Being on the ventilator makes more difficult procedures like MRIs and CAT scans. In the States, Health Care Directives are where you write what you want done and not done in treatment. Probably other nations have similar documents.

Doctors and nurses' training is for extending lives, and relieving suffering, where possible, and it is what most of them (if not all) would prefer to do. This is why they are being given clear, age based guidelines for triage. It must be really hard for them, but it is the elders who have, since time immemorial been the ones culled by the winter months' cold, illnesses, and sometimes lack of food. It is nature's way. It is weird for us to have to face this in this precise way, but it is what has come to us.

Those who survive will understand a lot, better, when the crisis is passed. If there are among the readers here, people who have not worked out issues with elders who are open to it, I recommend heartily that you do it now. It will make it easier for you and for them.

Ann

[Island Time O25]

In a world of finite resources there will always be some sort of rationing of those resources. The questions should be 1. who/what controls the rationing and 2. what are the criteria? Scary thought? You bet. The proverbial "death panels" in real time.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Testing should not effect the deaths per million one way or another. That’s why I was looking at that stat.

In some places, earlier or more thorough testing might have helped authorities better understand the nature of an early breakout, and take more precise actions which might reduce overall deaths.

Hindsight is 20-20, of course. But this experience should better arm us for the next one.

[delmarrey]

Just seen a news report that 21 million cell phones in China have become inactive.
Your guess is as good as mine.......