corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[Simi 60]

Good easy to understand article

What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight
See how coronavirus is spreading around the world — and what lessons we can take from the countries beating the virus.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-...ained/12089028

[DeepFrz]

Here is a link to the video where I learned about the study. There is also a segment on a Chinese (?) study showing particles flying in the air from somebody just talking. That starts at about 14:50 on the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w9M6K9vSUM

[fivecapes]

Originally Posted by Simi 60

Good easy to understand article

Thanks, but I think a per capita picture would more accurately reflect discrepancies eg Singapore would be in the ball park of S Korea while Japan would be waaay lower. Italy would be out of scale but likely show more flattening.

And making it a hard starting point at an absolute 100th case (as opposed to a percentage of population) also is bizarre. So by the graph Taiwan, a remarkable case, doesn't stand out if you don't know what to look for. If the arbitrary number were 300, then Taiwan won't even be on the graph (as of today).

Kinda silly to think Singapore (144case/mio) is similar to Japan (15case/mio) just by looking at the graph. It's not.

[valhalla360]

Good easy to understand article

Quote:
What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight
See how coronavirus is spreading around the world — and what lessons we can take from the countries beating the virus.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-...ained/12089028

It's a good explanation of exponential growth but toward the end, it starts to have problems:
- It should have switched over early on in the explanation to cases per million citizens. This would better assist people to understand the relative risk when listing out countries with wildly different populations. 1million cases in Singapore is 20% of the population. In china, it would be less than 0.1% of the population.
- On a related note: There some preliminary studies suggesting drastically larger percentages of the population have already been exposed. A UK study from a couple days back suggests upwards of 50% of the population is already exposed in the UK. As the virus runs out of new potential targets, the exponential growth quickly tapers off.
- They also fail to highlight that the current data is largely a function of the number of tests given. The spike we are seeing in the USA and some of the other countries is largely a function of ramping up testing in an exponential manner. Discussion of unreported cases is critical to the understanding even if we don't have a good handle on the number of unreported cases.
- Not so much as an astrix regarding China's wildly improbable drop in cases.

[DeepFrz]

- On a related note: There some preliminary studies suggesting drastically larger percentages of the population have already been exposed. A UK study from a couple days back suggests upwards of 50% of the population is already exposed in the UK. As the virus runs out of new potential targets, the exponential growth quickly tapers off.

Watch the video. Chris pretty much, IMO, debunks that theory of approaching "herd immunity".

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

Watch the video. Chris pretty much, IMO, debunks that theory of approaching "herd immunity".

Don't know who Chris is but this was a study by Oxford University.

Of course I'm taking everything with a huge grain of salt. What I do know with certainty is the official positive tests are drastically underestimating the real number infected and given the exponential nature of the spread, it could be off by such a large amount.

[Lake-Effect]

"Herd immunity" should show up as a marked decline in new cases, but the best possible indicator is testing for antibodies. There's a home kit coming, but this should really be managed properly, with tests coordinated by your own physician, clinics, or drop-in testing centres, who forwards it to a central database.

We're going to need this immunity info anyway, when permitting people to return to public-facing positions, to minimize the risks to both the public and the employee.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Current social distancing guidelines in the U.S. have been extended to April 30.

The response to the Covid-19 pandemic is infiltrating every aspect of life, and we’re already longing for it to end. Travel restrictions, school closures and event cancellations are the new normal, and phrases like "self-isolation" and "physical distancing" are now part of the collective lexicon.
But this fight may not end for months, or a year ,or even more. Travel restrictions, physical distancing protocols and business closures could all continue longer than we might expect.
It’s also possible that Covid-19 will become endemic, meaning it becomes a disease that regularly infects humans, and never really goes away.
Even if we reduce the risk of severe disease and death, through vaccine(s), or effective therapeutic treatment(s,), or herd immunity - if we increase the number of cases, more people can still get sick and die.
The greatest power we have, right now, is patience.
We need to stay put.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who just last week said he hoped the country would be "opened up and just raring to go" by Easter, said on Sunday, that the physical distancing guidelines would be in place until at least April 30. The government will offer more details on Tuesday, Trump said.

“... The better you do, the faster this whole nightmare will end. Therefore, we will be extending our guidelines to April 30th to slow the spread. On Tuesday, we will be finalizing these plans and providing a summary of our findings, supporting data, and strategy to the American people. So we'll be having lots of meetings in between, but we'll be having a very important statement made on Tuesday, probably Tuesday evening, on all of the findings, all of the data, and the reasons we're doing things the way we're doing them. We can expect that, by June 1st, we will be well on our way to recovery. We think by June 1st, a lot of great things will be happening ...”

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-...-end-of-april/
➥ https://www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-...-end-of-April/




Meanwhile, on March 29, Dr. Janet DeMille, Medical Officer of Health of the Thunder Bay District Health Unit (TBDHU), confirmed the third case of COVID-19, in the TBDHU region.
➥ https://www.tbdhu.com/news/thunder-b...e-of-covid-19#

[delmarrey]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

The Philippines are way behind in testing and some of the Chinese test kits are being reported as faulty.

Yeah, it’s the same here. The cases passed 1550 about 12 hours ago. We are not allowed to leave our barangay without a permit, and we’re not suppose to even be outside our houses unless coming and going. Also only one person at a time and all minors are to remain inside.
We have wall around the property so we can roam the yard. There’s no public transportation so we can only buy from the local Alfamart. No one that we’ve heard of in our area has contracted the virus. So far!

Yeah, I heard Manila got a bunch of test kits from China but most of them didn’t work. Just like Italy.

[Sand crab]

Originally Posted by Sand crab

Yesterday 121,099 cases and 2038 deaths in the US.
Today over 136,000 cases and 2409 deaths.

Today 3/30/2020 at 9:43 ET.
143055 cases in the US with 2513 deaths.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

[delmarrey]

Every single real journalist should be looking at these state by state numbers and reporting.

In January, California hit 493 pneumonia deaths a week. By mid-march, they reported just 282 weekly deaths from pneumonia.

What a difference 5 weeks and a national pandemic makes.

In January, California was recording about 5800 deaths a week. Last week, they recorded 3,906 deaths.

Unlike NYC, Cali probably saw a drop, at least in part, due to less car accidents.

My point: Do not believe anything you read about “more bodies” because of a Chinese virus.

[Woodland Hills]

Originally Posted by GordMay

The response to the Covid-19 pandemic is infiltrating every aspect of life, and we’re already longing for it to end. Travel restrictions, school closures and event cancellations are the new normal, and phrases like "self-isolation" and "physical distancing" are now part of the collective lexicon.
But this fight may not end for months, or a year ,or even more. Travel restrictions, physical distancing protocols and business closures could all continue longer than we might expect.
It’s also possible that Covid-19 will become endemic, meaning it becomes a disease that regularly infects humans, and never really goes away.
Even if we reduce the risk of severe disease and death, through vaccine(s), or effective therapeutic treatment(s,), or herd immunity - if we increase the number of cases, more people can still get sick and die.
The greatest power we have, right now, is patience.
We need to stay put.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who just last week said he hoped the country would be "opened up and just raring to go" by Easter, said on Sunday, that the physical distancing guidelines would be in place until at least April 30. The government will offer more details on Tuesday, Trump said.
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-...-end-of-april/
➥ https://www.cbsnews.com/video/trump-...-end-of-April/




Meanwhile, on March 29, Dr. Janet DeMille, Medical Officer of Health of the Thunder Bay District Health Unit (TBDHU), confirmed the third case of COVID-19, in the TBDHU region.
➥ https://www.tbdhu.com/news/thunder-b...e-of-covid-19#

What good are suggestions and guidelines? That’s just talk not action. If it’s not mandatory with stiff fines and penalties including jail it’s just pretend. The real truth is that with the exception of a few states and cities there is no action being taken and that’s why we see cases continue to climb exponentially. Dr. Fauci says we will have only 100k deaths, IF we practice social distancing, but we aren’t are we? So you need to look at the high end estimates, not the low end. And that’s 200k to 1.1m dead.

[rbk]

8 different strains identified. Active tracking of the virus as it evolves.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov?animate=...3-27,0,0,30000
Good news is that it evolves rather slowly, so far.

[smbdyiam2]

Originally Posted by Woodland Hills

What good are suggestions and guidelines? That’s just talk not action. If it’s not mandatory with stiff fines and penalties including jail it’s just pretend. The real truth is that with the exception of a few states and cities there is no action being taken and that’s why we see cases continue to climb exponentially. Dr. Fauci says we will have only 100k deaths, IF we practice social distancing, but we aren’t are we? So you need to look at the high end estimates, not the low end. And that’s 200k to 1.1m dead.

Fines are just taking Daddy's money
Jail is inhuman or unusual and cruel punishments'.
How about 2 weeks public service at local morgue ?

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/coronaviru...174551729.html

Swedish seem to be taking a more practical approach. Quarantine the elderly and weak but otherwise a more moderate approach that doesn't destroy the economy.

This makes a lot of sense to me.