corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[smbdyiam2]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Remember: Keep those magnets away from your compass, and your nose ...

“Astrophysicist gets magnets stuck up nose while inventing coronavirus device”
“... Two magnets ended up in my left nostril while the other one was in my right. At this point I ran out of magnets ...”
Astrophysicist Daniel Reardon is good-spirited about his attempt to invent a face-touching warning device that ended up with him in hospital.
More ➥ https://www.theguardian.com/australi...fb868-45020405

Does this need to be moved to jokes thread?

[Singularity]

AI/computer analysis as a tool to help predict which people are more likely to go on to respiratory failure (interesting to download the pdf of the full study for more details). 70-80% accuracy...

Notably the data for this study is from a Chinese population...and a specific Chinese population at that...such that it should be assumed that the findings are not universal.

Towards an Artificial Intelligence Framework for Data-Driven Prediction of Coronavirus Clinical Severity
https://www.techscience.com/cmc/v63n1/38464
Our results, based on data from two hospitals in Wenzhou, Zhejiang, China, identified features on initial presentation with COVID-19 that were most predictive of later development of ARDS. A mildly elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (a liver enzyme), the presence of myalgias (body aches), and an elevated hemoglobin (red blood cells), in this order, are the clinical features, on presentation, that are the most predictive. The predictive models that learned from historical data of patients from these two hospitals achieved 70% to 80% accuracy in predicting severe cases.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by smbdyiam2

Does this need to be moved to jokes thread?

Humorous, but absolutely not a joke.
Although all the reports (worldwide) seem to trace back, to the original Guardian article.
“Astrophysicist Gets Magnets Stuck Up Nose Inventing Device To Stop People Touching Their Faces”
➥ https://www.iflscience.com/physics/a...g-their-faces/
“'Virus-fighting' scientist gets magnets stuck in nose”
➥ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-52094804
“Scientist gets magnets stuck in his nose after coronavirus device mishap”
➥ https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/austr...scn/index.html

[Singularity]

Originally Posted by rbk

yes and no. Cytokines are proteins that more or less tell the immune cells (among others) what to do and where. Sepsis would be the immune systems actual response. The main driver in using the hot word ‘cytokine storm’ is the variations in white blood cells that are being activated. For instance lymphocytes are greatly reduced in those with severe covid 19 although it is unclear as to which ones and why. Full on sepsis would be a full on immune system response but for some reason only specific cytokines proteins are being produced or inhibited causing a specific response, this may have something to do with the way the virus interacts with the cells causing an abnormal response

[over-simplified in part for a broader audience]
Sepsis is really semantics. Is sepsis what the immune system is doing? Or is sepsis the degraded condition of bodily function owing to what the immune system is doing? We don't describe someone with a minor cold as being septic, though such people sort of are septic.

My point is that citing cytokine storm, sepsis, inflammation, anti-inflammation...is an un-serving over-simplification (I love over-simplifications, but they can't work here).

This study suggested/showed that low complement mice (knock-out low, not depleted low) had less CoV lung issue. This mechanism alone could be a "deal maker or deal breaker" for some infected people.

This study showed that a simple viral protein complexing with a simple host enzyme rendered the latter ineffective in allowing the body to (healthily) kill off it's own cells (apoptosis)...while at the same time the viral-host protein complex inhibited healthy ~dissolving of should-be temporary scar tissue that forms during an infection, thus lending to long-term complications. So, this mechanism too...alone...could be a "deal maker or deal breaker" for some infected people.

And there are gazillions of other possible viral-host permutations that results in fatality. My point is that this stuff is quite complex such that "anti-inflammatory" conceptualization is really left wanting for more precise defining of "so which constellation of the bazillions of constellations in immune system function are we pointing to when we say..."anti-inflammatory?" If that makes any sense...

[Sand crab]

Originally Posted by Sand crab

Today 3/30/2020 at 9:43 ET.
143055 cases in the US with 2513 deaths.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

I am posting this daily so everyone can see the real time consequences of the virus.


Today 3/31/2020 at 12:23 ET
165,874 cases with 3178 deaths in the US.
Unfortunately these stats are doubling about every 4 days.



Italy has 11,591 deaths
Spain has 8269 deaths
China claims only 3309 deaths but some question the accuracy. Russia's tally is also questionable.

[GordMay]

The video below, from the non-profit education site, Khan Academy, explains how to predict the actual number of cases, based on the reported confirmed cases.
https://youtu.be/mCa0JXEwDEk

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Singularity

AI/computer analysis as a tool to help predict which people are more likely to go on to respiratory failure (interesting to download the pdf of the full study for more details). 70-80% accuracy...

This paper, from some clinicians in China, details their success in getting early warning of "collapsing" patients based on the change in vitals.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Humorous, but absolutely not a joke.
Although all the reports (worldwide) seem to trace back, to the original Guardian article.
“Astrophysicist Gets Magnets Stuck Up Nose Inventing Device To Stop People Touching Their Faces”
➥ https://www.iflscience.com/physics/a...g-their-faces/
“'Virus-fighting' scientist gets magnets stuck in nose”
➥ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-52094804
“Scientist gets magnets stuck in his nose after coronavirus device mishap”
➥ https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/austr...scn/index.html

Perhaps it's one day ahead of its time for your side of the world

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by Don C L

Great to see that from someone on the front lines.

no video was seen due to privacy settings, allegedly. nice to have selective showing/.viewing

[rbk]

Originally Posted by Singularity

[over-simplified in part for a broader audience]
Sepsis is really semantics. Is sepsis what the immune system is doing? Or is sepsis the degraded condition of bodily function owing to what the immune system is doing? We don't describe someone with a minor cold as being septic, though such people sort of are septic.

My point is that citing cytokine storm, sepsis, inflammation, anti-inflammation...is an un-serving over-simplification (I love over-simplifications, but they can't work here).

This study suggested/showed that low complement mice (knock-out low, not depleted low) had less CoV lung issue. This mechanism alone could be a "deal maker or deal breaker" for some infected people.

This study showed that a simple viral protein complexing with a simple host enzyme rendered the latter ineffective in allowing the body to (healthily) kill off it's own cells (apoptosis)...while at the same time the viral-host protein complex inhibited healthy ~dissolving of should-be temporary scar tissue that forms during an infection, thus lending to long-term complications. So, this mechanism too...alone...could be a "deal maker or deal breaker" for some infected people.

And there are gazillions of other possible viral-host permutations that results in fatality. My point is that this stuff is quite complex such that "anti-inflammatory" conceptualization is really left wanting for more precise defining of "so which constellation of the bazillions of constellations in immune system function are we pointing to when we say..."anti-inflammatory?" If that makes any sense...

Using sepsis is an over simplification. Identifying a more specific response such as cytokine storm (I do dislike that term though) identifies a more specific response. Why this is an important distinction as I mentioned before is the type of lymphocytes that are being inhibited. Of the three main immune cells lymphocytes (white blood cells) have have three primary functions as specific cells - antibody producers (B) cell destroyers (NK) and internal cellular mediators (B) (non antibody response). It is looking like the virus may inhibit either the cell or the cytokine production associated with the specific cells and possibly over production of cytokines response associated with NK cell. These NK cells attack the infected cell and destroy it (mostly cilia which lead to cell shedding and in turn pneumonia). T and B cells response would directly attack the virus by means of antibodies or macrophages. Your links allude to this as well. Below is how lymphocyte testing is helping to determine the severity of the immune response and the severity of the outcome and trying to determine how the virus is affecting lymphocytes directly or indirectly. If we can figure that out it may be possible to reduce the number of NK’s and increase a T or B response.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-020-0148-4

[rbk]

Also I totally agree that viral loading is another factor. The fact that covid binds to cells so easily (almost guaranteed cellular attachment) and seeing many younger healthy medical professionals succumbing is a good indicator that shear overload by the virus is possible.

[Don C L]

Hello all: This is all good info, but let's not forget the point of this thread, as Atoll started it, is to keep us all informed of alerts as they pertain to cruisers and boating in general. Thanks!

[Montanan]

If you are attempting to repatriate back from your journey or desire to travel to your boat, it will remain difficult or impossible by air flights anytime soon.

World Aviation Organization: Air traffic is expected to drop 70 percent in the second quarter [April - June].

[Montanan]

The most relevant snipets of the Governors order are attached below.

By WMBF News Staff | March 30, 2020 at 6:29 PM EDT - Updated March 31 at 8:47 AM

https://www.wmbfnews.com/2020/03/30/...eaches-closed/

COLUMBIA, S.C. (WMBF) – South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster issued an executive order on Monday that closes all public access points to the state’s beaches.

The executive order also closes all public boat ramps, landings and other access points on the state’s lakes, rivers and waterways.

“As a result of behavior observed this past weekend by the Department of Natural Resources and SLED, it has become necessary to close public access to our state’s beaches, and to close boat ramps and landings on our state’s lakes, rivers and waterways,”McMaster said. “This is unfortunate for those who chose to responsibly follow the instructions of our public health officials, but it is a necessary action to prevent the spread of this dangerous virus.”

The order goes into effect immediately and will last until the State of Emergency is over in South Carolina.

The governor’s executive order does not apply to people with a current and valid commercial fishing license or people who use public piers, docks, wharfs, boat ramps or boat landings that are used for commercial fishing activities.

The order doesn’t impact private property owners living on beaches, lakes, rivers or waterways.

Public beach accesses & boat ramps are closed under order of the governor. Please do not attempt to avoid barriers/police lines and risk a summons or arrest. Trespassing on private property will be strictly enforced.

Officials said barricades will be placed to block access with police patrolling the area and the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources will enforce the waterways.

Anyone who violates the order will be charged with a misdemeanor and, if convicted, may be fined up to $100 or spend a maximum of 30 days in jail.

[Discovery 15797]

Originally Posted by GordMay

The video below, from the non-profit education site, Khan Academy, explains how to predict the actual number of cases, based on the reported confirmed cases.
https://youtu.be/mCa0JXEwDEk

Gord,

The astrophysicist thing had me rolling on the floor this morning.
(Just another example that education and commonsense are not synonymous, and sometimes mutually exclusive.)

I love Khan Academy. I think it is a very interesting analysis of the data. This provides a great example of extrapolating infection rates. But it is pretty basic and assumes that the entire population is equally at risk of death, and it assumes the death rate to be 1%.

The overall hypothesis is the total number of people infected is larger than the number of positive tests, and I firmly believe that to be a true statement. But, if we accept that to be a true statement then the overall mortality rate would be lower.

For example, currently mortality rates are calculated using a simple formula
using #of deaths (where virus is present, or in Canada's case where they think it is the cause of death) / only the number of positive test cases.

That mortality rate is completely ignoring the # of potential unknown infections.

For example, we know today about 16% of those tested in the US are positive. We also know the simplistic formula for death rate (deaths/positive cases) shows the US mortality rate at 1.8% That would mean there are about 9 million people infected in the US (# positive cases/mortality rate) today. Now, recalculate mortality rate.

This overly simplistic math also explains wild projections like 1 million dead. If 16% of the population is tests positive and the morality rate is 1.8%, that means about 1 million deaths in the US. ((US pop X .16) x .018)

Personally, I don't think the world has a good handle on the death rate yet.

I also question why the deaths in Schengen EU are much higher than Southeast Asia.

I also wonder why the death rate is astronomically higher in New York compared to say LA or Seattle.

I also wonder why we are already starting to see rapid decreases in death rates in Washington state for the past 3 days. (And why the UW model is changing per day now.) Was March 27th the apex in Washington state where the first case was detected in the US?

What if Dr. Levitt from Stanford (who correctly predicted the viral impact in China) is actually closer to reality?

(Yes, I know he is an outlier in his opinion. IMHO, Ferguson was also an outlier but many people completely bought into his wild ass guess without question.)

The number of new positive cases and the number of deaths has been decreasing for 2 days, then an extremely high jump yesterday. Are we at or near the tipping point in the US?


I suspect there are many more mitigating factors that are not included in models for more accurate predictions which is why many are focused on raw data and simplistic math, and cumulative totals.

Plan for worse case scenarios; work to achieve best case scenarios.