corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[TigerPaws]

Originally Posted by dwedeking2

I think we are too close to the event to make a guess about long term ramifications. The yachting world is a minute portion of the travel world. In the short term (less than 6 months) there is and will be huge changes to how we cruise. The further out we get those dramatic changes, things are going to mellow out. The large cruise ships are much more a danger to an island or society than a couple of yachties, but due to their economic benefits they're still going to be going to those islands.

I believe when we look back at the statistics the overall deaths for 2020 will have a change of less than 5% over 2019.

On this I agree, but what happens when Covid-20 hits, the 21, 22 and so on?

There is a bigger agenda at work with this global lock down.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by dwedeking2

... I believe when we look back at the statistics the overall deaths for 2020 will have a change of less than 5% over 2019.

Are you suggesting that about 3,889,000,000 (5% of 7,777,504,748) deaths, this year, are insignificant?

[dwedeking2]

Originally Posted by TigerPaws

There is a bigger agenda at work with this global lock down.

If this is some larger plan by a group to control population/install a police state/turn us into the matrix then we as common people will have little to no control to stop or change it. At that point what does it matter...


If this is a fluke of mother nature, then like all previous major events in world history you can take some lessons from it (buy more medical supplies and less battleships and tanks), prepare yourself and your family for the likely possible futures and move on.

[TigerPaws]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Are you suggesting that about 3,889,000,000 (5% of 7,777,504,748) deaths, this year, are insignificant?

Your math is off a bit.

[dwedeking2]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Are you suggesting that about 3,889,000,000 (5% of 7,777,504,748) deaths, this year, are insignificant?

I meant as an increase over deaths of the previous years. I just made up the 5% number. My point being that a number of the deaths given the label of Covid-19 would have happened over the next 9 months anyhow, but would have been attributed the underlying disease. When graphed out overall the event will be a blip vs some huge spike like the Spanish flu.



I'm not dismissing the possibilities that were there when this started, or saying that the actions taken weren't needed. Just that when we look back at this after studying the event for a few years we'll see it wasn't what we feel today, living it.

[TigerPaws]

Originally Posted by dwedeking2

If this is some larger plan by a group to control population/install a police state/turn us into the matrix then we as common people will have little to no control to stop or change it. At that point what does it matter...

If this is a fluke of mother nature, then like all previous major events in world history you can take some lessons from it (buy more medical supplies and less battleships and tanks), prepare yourself and your family for the likely possible futures and move on.

I was an instructor at the U.S. War Collage for a time while I was recuperating from a battle wound. One of the many things I taught was to keep your ear to the ground (meaning what was going on right now) and your eye on the horizon (know what is coming tomorrow).

Right now is the situation we are dealing with, tomorrow is the crisis to come. In the aftermath of the Spanish flu pandemic what happened? Did countries stop building battleships, tanks, planes and weapons of war? Yes for a short time, a very short time before the build up to WW2 started.

This time will be no different.

[TigerPaws]

Originally Posted by dwedeking2

I meant as an increase over deaths of the previous years. I just made up the 5% number. My point being that a number of the deaths given the label of Covid-19 would have happened over the next 9 months anyhow, but would have been attributed the underlying disease. When graphed out overall the event will be a blip vs some huge spike like the Spanish flu.

I'm not dismissing the possibilities that were there when this started, or saying that the actions taken weren't needed. Just that when we look back at this after studying the event for a few years we'll see it wasn't what we feel today, living it.

I agree...

[Montanan]

After the nation's top disease response agency posted orders keeping cruise ships docked last Wednesday night, extending the ban through August, the White House Coronavirus Task Force stepped in to cut it by 20 days.

When the no-sail order reappeared on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s website hours later, its language had been softened: Ships can sail again in July, and an explicit warning that they could be docked even longer had been deleted, according to emails and internal documents obtained by USA TODAY.

“Sorry to do this, but the Office of the Vice President has instructed us to pull the No Sail Order Extension from the website immediately,” a CDC senior official wrote to staff just after 7 a.m. Thursday, the morning after the notice had been posted.

The 11th-hour interference is another example of the administration’s at-times chaotic coronavirus pandemic response and a misguided decision to allow the cruise lines to police themselves during a national health crisis, critics said.

The industry’s most profitable season is the summer, so a shorter time frame on the no-sail order could help it get back out to sea in time to recoup some of its losses. A hint that the order could be extended would undermine that goal.

“Cruise lines don't want to put that in the air so the American public isn’t discouraged from booking cruises,” said John Hickey, a maritime trial attorney in Miami.

After the first death of a cruise passenger from the coronavirus, the CDC waited more than three weeks to issue its first no-sail order. That came March 14 – the day after the industry’s own Cruise Line International Association pledged to stop sailing.

In those unbridled weeks, dozens of ships set sail, leading to thousands of infections and at least 30 deaths of passengers and crew. The cruise cases are one of the suspected points of entry for coronavirus into U.S. communities.

The cruise lines “were very late in the game, there’s no doubt about it,” Hickey said. “The incentive, we all know, is immediate financial gain instead of doing the right thing. Apparently, they made the decision to risk it and risk health and safety of passengers.”

Even after the industry promised to stop, at least one ship set sail. Eight or more other ships departed in the hours leading up to the announcement, according to a USA TODAY satellite tracking analysis of more than 200 of the world’s largest cruise ships using historical data from VesselFinder, a digital service that tracks the positions and movements of vessels.

Royal Caribbean’s Liberty of the Seas left Galveston, Texas, on March 15. Afterward, the CDC said it was notified that COVID-19-positive travelers showed symptoms while on board. Royal Caribbean told USA TODAY there were no passengers on board.

Almost 100 cruise ships wait off the Gulf, Atlantic and Pacific coasts, with about 80,000 crew members on board, according to the CDC’s latest no-sail order. Fifteen ships are anchored in harbors with known or suspected coronavirus patients aboard.

The cruise ships contribute to the burden on American resources and should be responsible for the health of their own crews, CDC Director Robert Redfield said in last week’s extension of the March 14 order. He gave the cruise lines seven days to come up with a plan to mitigate the spread of the disease on board and provide medical care to infected patients.

The CDC’s original no-sail order was unprecedented in its scope. The federal agency has the broad power to issue no-sail orders that are enforced by the U.S. Coast Guard, which has its own power to prevent ships from entering or exiting ports.

“The CDC has worked tirelessly day and night to control COVID-19 on cruise ships stuck at sea while simultaneously protecting against further introduction and spread of COVID-19 into communities,” Dr. Marty Cetron, director of the CDC’s Global Migration and Quarantine division, said in a statement to USA TODAY.

In the past three weeks, the CDC said, it worked with the Coast Guard to disembark 12,000 passengers from at least eight stranded ships. The Coast Guard reported it oversaw 250,000 passengers removed from cruise ships during that time.

The White House denied Vice President Mike Pence personally ordered that the no-sail extension be watered down.

“That direction was not given by the vice president’s office,” said Devin O’Malley, a Pence adviser, who did not elaborate on where it came from. The CDC also did not provide an explanation.

Carnival, Royal Caribbean, MSC Cruises and other cruise lines contacted by USA TODAY said they have fully complied with guidance from the CDC and World Health Organization as it has evolved over the course of the pandemic.

Bari Golin-Blaugrund, the industry association’s strategic communication director, said cruise lines did their best from the beginning.

"Given the fact that this is a new illness, one that our medical professionals are still working to understand, we have had to learn and adapt in real time, along with the rest of the world, as new information became available," Golin-Blaugrund said. "There will be a lot to learn from this experience."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-hou...173657054.html

[DEAN2140]

Friends of an acquaintance posted their experiences in French Polynesia:



The world is a different place, it seems. With infrequent news from the outside, we were late to the Corona party. Too busy enjoying French Polynesia, baguettes, and pomplemouse to recognize what was happening on the populated side of the world. We sailed 6 days from Gambier Island group of French Polynesia in early March, worry free, to the Marquesas Islands, about 800 miles north. Nice trip with one large tuna. The islanders of Fatu Hiva welcomed us with fresh fruits and good water for our tanks (watermaker on the fritz). 4 days later we received a chilly welcome when we attended church on the Island of Tahuata. Villagers were friendly but very concerned with our recent whereabouts. Much relieved to learn that we'd been at sea for a week and the Gambiers before that. 3 days later we sailed to Hiva-Oa ... and into a ****-storm.



First cases of Corona detected in French Polynesia - the Society Islands of Tahiti and Moorea. Then Fakarava in the Tuomotus and even a case in the distant Austral Islands. Immediate action by the F.P. minister: total lock-down. House quarantine for 15 days everywhere. All yachties to remain on their boats. Zero shore access. No visiting other yachts at anchor. No dinghy raft-ups. Swimming allowed within 5 meters of the boat. Took a few days to sort out a grocery and water supply system. After 5 days of "boat-arrest," quarantine extended another 10 days. Apparently, a couple hundred school children at boarding schools in Tahiti were returned to their families in the outlying islands... without pre-quarantine. Fear that these kids would bring the virus to each Island. So far little sign of that but the extra 10 days were added for this reason. Locals are allowed to visit grocery, gas station, pharmacy, and bakery (boulangerie). No exceptions, supposedly. Yachties are allowed to order groceries and potable water from a local yacht agent (who's doing a very good business, BTW).



Pazzo became quite fond of our little isolation community in Atuona. We started a cruisers net, a virtual happy hour on VHF Channel 68, formal (serious topics) and informal (jokes and fun stuff) whatsapp groups, and a system of games and contests between boats. A couple of yachts had extra booster antennas to relay weak signals from a couple of local businesses who opened up their WiFi access points to the fleet (20 - 30 boats). I provided daily weather reports in English and French. The local authorities were in a tough spot, enforcing regulations handed down from the High Commission and mayor of the Island, while understanding the difficulties of remaining confined (some with dogs and kids) on their yachts. Top marks for the Gendarmes and Marc, our marine liaison. Our restrictions exceeded those imposed by higher-ups because the mayor of each island has the freedom to interpret the mandates from the high commission independently.



After 10 days in captivity, and with much consultation from trusted friends and family, Cindy and I decided to apply for a permit to sail to Hawaii. This was a difficult decision for us, trading a corona-free environment for one with known cases. After our 2-week trip, we will be subject to another 2-week quarantine in Hawaii. No credit for sea-time. But in Hawaii, we will be welcome, in contrast to Polynesia where the locals were very kind, but fearful that foreigners might consume their scarce medical resources. There is only one ventilator on the Island of Hiva-Oa. What happens if a cruiser and a villager get sick at the same time? We understand. Hawaii also offers the possibility of getting home in an emergency and medical care if needed. And hell, what's a couple more weeks at Sea?



We have no crystal balls aboard. (Cindy broke the last one). But, we expect that the upcoming SoPac cruising season, if any, will be challenging. It's unclear whether and when corona-free island nations like the Cook Islands and Fiji will open their borders. Same for New Zealand and Australia, the traditional go-to havens for yachts escaping the SoPac hurricane season (November thru April). If we're wrong about the SoPac cruising season, it's only a couple more weeks to return to Polynesia or points further west.



So, we pulled our anchor yesterday and slowly made our way thru the fleet, to a cacophony of horns, as we sadly bid farewell to all our new friends. We are very much looking forward to a reunion with many of these boats in the future ... in happier times. Not long after our sails were set and Pazzo was kicking up her heels as she so often does for us, a we received an incredible send-off from a large pod of dolphins, clearly starved for yachts with which to play. We take this as confirmation that we're doing the right thing.

[hpeer]

Things may change as this virus runs through SE Asia but as it stands I’m coming to agree with dwedeking.

First we are too close to have necessary perspective. Looking at some data sites and forecasting sites yesterday it seems that the West is mostly past the peak including the USA. NYC was hit hard and we tend to extrapolate that to the balance of the 330 millions. But one forecasting site is painting a very different picture, IF CORRECT. NYC and NJ are past peak. CN, RI, MA will hit peak in the next week or so. Then it’s pretty much over. It will take a while for the tail to taper off.

In the end, year over year, the overall death rate may have gone up by only some small figure. I know of one RN who is being sent home from work because there are so few people in the hospital, there are no vehicular injuries, and heart attacks and strokes have apparently greatly declined.

This virus is primarily reaping the old and decrepit that have short expected life spans due to pre-existing conditions. If you were to do a rolling 3 year average you might find it hard to pick out the virus year. It LOOKS very dramatic because so many are dying at once.

But these questions can not be answered by us now, the health care statisticians should be addressing these matters. But they are hampered by bad data. We will know better in a few years.

Then the question becomes what happens when we release the lockdown? The ironic question to ask is “Do we have ENOUGH infected people to stop a second surge?”

Dominica, 70,000 folks, seem to have stopped the virus. It appears that at this instant they have no active virus in the island. But where does that leave them? The only way to retain that status is to keep the borders locked. They have 3 new hotels nearing completion, their only real resort hotels. Are they going to require all guests to show immunity certificates? They can’t quarantine the guests, or the hotels. They get few cruise ships but now will they ban ALL cruise ships.....and ALL CRUISERS? As soon as they ease lockdown they are once again at the same risk as before lockdown, nothing has changed. They are jailed in an cell of security and isolated from the world.

[hpeer]

dwedeking2, Tiger Paws and I are all pointing to one thing. A different point of perspective.

Most folks right now are viewing everything in real time, this is a human trait but it is also being magnified by the MSM chasing ratings. It builds panic and causes all kinds of errors. Public figures are not immune to our pressure.

I think what we are counseling is to try to both look ahead to the future but then also imagine what it will be like to look back at this time from the future. It’s that old question l: What would I have done differently then if I only knew then what I now know? Try to look back on these times from that future perspective.

It’s not easy but worthwhile even if wrong. And it’s seldom completely wrong. We are not the first to go through this kind of thing.

[Thumbs Up]

Originally Posted by hpeer

dwedeking2, Tiger Paws and I are all pointing to one thing. A different point of perspective.

Most folks right now are viewing everything in real time, this is a human trait but it is also being magnified by the MSM chasing ratings. It builds panic and causes all kinds of errors. Public figures are not immune to our pressure.

I think what we are counseling is to try to both look ahead to the future but then also imagine what it will be like to look back at this time from the future. It’s that old question l: What would I have done differently then if I only knew then what I now know? Try to look back on these times from that future perspective.

It’s not easy but worthwhile even if wrong. And it’s seldom completely wrong. We are not the first to go through this kind of thing.

I have been arguing (on separate threads) different viewpoints on this "pandemic" for days (or weeks not sure). GordMay and others are asserting "facts" based mostly on MSM dismissing unpopular views as "conspiracy". Tiger Paws is even suggesting some unknown "agenda" is in place (I agree). I like to try to dive a little deeper into some of these subjects (as well as boat related stuff). I have been catching a lot of flak for it by other forum members. Here's to a different perspective!

[hpeer]

Thumbs up,
Meir you mean to attach a link?

Otherwise, I’m not inclined towards conspiracy theories (beyond China messing with data).

There is sufficient dumb to explain a lot.

[Montanan]

Why Do Italians Test Positive After Symptoms Are Long Gone?
Barbie Latza Nadeau
The Daily BeastApril 14, 2020,

Why Do Italians Test Positive After Symptoms Are Long Gone?
Barbie Latza Nadeau
The Daily BeastApril 14, 2020,

Italian newscaster Alessandro Politi was shocked when he tested positive for COVID-19 on March 11. He and other colleagues were swabbed out of an abundance of caution after a co-worker contracted the virus. The 30-year-old had a slight fever and a sore throat, but none of the chest tightness or other nightmarish symptoms so many have suffered.

Following the Italian Health Institute guidelines for releasing someone from self-isolation, Politi was tested again two weeks after his positive swab. But, fever-free and with no symptoms at all, he tested positive once more. The test was carried out a week later, 21 days after his diagnosis, and he still tested positive for the virus. Now, 30 days later, Politi has just tested positive again, calling into question just how long the novel coronavirus stays in some people’s systems and whether that might play a role in why, despite a month-long draconian lockdown, Italy just can’t seem to shake the virus.

Politi’s case and a study of others involving people with mild or no symptoms who continued to test positive long after the two-week standard quarantine ended has prompted the northern region of Lombardy to rethink its quarantine guidelines, and there are potentially profound implications for any country, including the United States, searching for a way to end economy-crushing lockdowns.

Lombardy, Italy’s wealthiest region, is where the outbreak began in this country. It has more than 60,000 of Italy’s nearly 160,000 cases and 60 percent of the country’s more than 20,000 deaths. On Saturday, Milan alone logged as many deaths in one day as the entire region around Rome has recorded since the outbreak began on Feb. 25.

Starting this week, everyone in the region of Lombardy who tests positive, or who displays symptoms and is told to self-isolate in lieu of a swab, must now self-isolate for 28 days, twice the CDC and WHO recommendation of two weeks.

Massimo Galli, director of the biomedical and clinical sciences department of the Sacco Hospital in Milan, says that the fact that some people take longer to shed the virus could be why it is taking so long for Italy, which flattened the curve on infections more than 10 days ago, to start seeing a drastic decrease in cases.

“Politi is not an isolated case,” Galli said on Sunday. “We need to understand how to act to avoid the worst. Taking millions of swabs is impossible but countermeasures and solutions must be found because patients like Politi, completely asymptomatic or not very symptomatic but fully positive after many days, are a problem.”

The extra vigilance is especially important as Italy starts to lift restrictions of its nationwide lockdown that started March 10. “Now that we have started thinking about a restart we must absolutely avoid conditions and situations that can put us in serious crisis again,” Galli said.

Lombardy Health and Welfare Minister Giulio Gallera said at a press conference Sunday that despite criticism for what many feel is an overreaction, the decision to double the quarantine comes from the fact that no one really knows just how long infected people stay positive, or how long they are contagious.

No reliable antibody tests have been able to even determine if, or for how long, those who are infected are immune. “There are many people who are still testing positive after 14 days,” Gallera said, adding that there are also a vast number of people who have symptoms but aren’t tested at all, but who likely have the virus. If those people self-isolate for only two weeks on their own accord assuming they have COVID-19, and then go out again, they could actually be silent spreaders because they think they are immune.

Authorities are especially worried about those in the region’s vast underground migrant population—many from China—who, as undocumented workers, have kept even lower profiles during the pandemic. Lombardy has Europe’s tightest connection to China after Italy signed on to the New Silk Road project a year ago. Multiple daily flights between Milan and Chinese cities were added in the fall to facilitate lucrative new business deals, which easily explains why Lombardy became the largest epicenter outside of China when the pandemic began in February.

Those deals also spawned a network of workers who live under the radar, much like Italy’s garment district outside of Florence, which has the country’s largest documented and undocumented population of Chinese immigrants. The community has a remarkably low number of confirmed COVID cases, likely because much of Italy’s vast Chinese community started locking down in their own communities long before the nation did on March 10. Many people also returned to China when the outbreak began there, before flights were banned.

Italy is supposed to start Phase II of the lockdown on May 3, but in Lombardy, anyone who tests positive for COVID-19 between now and then will now have to stay strictly quarantined for the full 28 days to avoid a second wave of the disease.

Dr. Galli believes that if asymptomatic infected people or those who shed the virus slowly are contributing to the continued spread of the virus, which has led to the difficulty with which Italy has had in decreasing cases and deaths drastically, keeping them locked down is the only option.

Galli also has helped Lombardy institute more aggressive testing in the area ahead of the lifting of some restrictions. “The data fluctuates based on the number of swabs but there are at least 10 times more positives out there which continue to spread the virus,” Galli said. Over the weekend, more than twice the usual number of tests were carried out in Milan, which has seen a spike in cases in recent days.

Giovanni Rezza, head of the Italian Superior Health Institute, said that some of that is because families living together and even people in the same condominium are likely infecting each other unknowingly. When one person starts to show symptoms, it is often too late.

“Transmission has carried on after the lockdown,” he said Monday. “This means that after the lockdown is lifted, there will still be a trail of lingering cases. There will still be an incubation period for those who don’t know they have the disease who spread it unknowingly.”

But Rezza is convinced that the high number of cases Italy still logs every day are people who were infected up to 20 or 30 days ago, essentially those who are not shedding the virus quickly. And, as such, in 20 days time—May 3, when Phase II is supposed to begin—the level of confirmed infections should subside, but there could still be more infectious people circulating.

He points to a decrease in hospitalizations, people intubated and sent to ICU wards, and faster recoveries as a point of optimism, “No doubt about it, these are positive signals that will have to be proven with time.” But he cautions, “This doesn’t mean that we are all free now, this is still phase 1.”

Politi says he will stay in quarantine as long as it takes to test negative twice, which is what the Italian health system requires for those who have tested positive to leave self-isolation. The alternative for anyone who breaks quarantine is arrest and a five-year jail term.

“I keep having to ask myself, if after 30 or more days I am still positive with a full viral load, theoretically super contagious, how many are we in Italy like this?” Politi wonders. “In light of the fact that there have been many positive cases even 40 days after the end of the symptoms, how many are there who are not tested but after the 14 day quarantine go around and infect others, or even risk their own lives?”

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Thumbs Up

I have been arguing (on separate threads) different viewpoints on this "pandemic" for days (or weeks not sure). GordMay and others are asserting "facts" based mostly on MSM dismissing unpopular views as "conspiracy" ...

Who/what is this 'MSM', that I seem to be relying on for my so-called facts?