corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by transmitterdan

https://apple.news/AisnLVi0ERUqRyPizEJkrXw


“China for the first time publicized a breakdown of people testing positive for the novel coronavirus without outward signs of being sick, revealing that those among them who remain symptom-free throughout infection are in the majority.

Among 6,764 people who tested positive for infection without showing symptoms, only one fifth of them -- 1,297 -- have so far developed symptoms and been re-classified as confirmed cases, China’s National Health Commission spokesman Mi Feng said at a briefing in Beijing Wednesday.”



If this data holds up then the actual infection rate is up to 5 times more than the “confirmed case” rate. Which means the percentage of infected persons that get serious complications is much lower than 1%. And it also means we will have a very hard time getting rid of this disease because 80% of the infected are unwitting carriers.

China clearly knew this many weeks ago which is a bit infuriating as well.

Dan,

If I understand correctly it also implies many more folks have immunity than anticipated. Which is good because it means transmission will be lower.

[transmitterdan]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Dan,

If I understand correctly it also implies many more folks have immunity than anticipated. Which is good because it means transmission will be lower.

We need more information on how someone can become immune. It may require that someone become ill before their immune system develops antibodies.

The Chinese research focused on people who tested positive for the virus. Then they monitored them to see if they developed any symptoms. They did not use an antibody test that would signify immunity.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by delmarrey

It’s starting to sound like the CCP will be in control.

Yep and the Tosser of a PM has the temerity to say that by having the app we will have more freedom - So taking away our freedom to give us freedom - What a comedian - Trouble is the idiots will lap it up......

[delmarrey]

They are starting the apps in Singapore already!

https://youtu.be/B7eCMV8m0_0

[transmitterdan]

Here is another report on the low rate of symptoms in infected people. This time they tested pregnant women getting ready for delivery. Of those tested, 33 tested positive and 29 of the 33 had no symptoms. That is a huge percentage of asymptomatic infections.

https://apple.news/AwAM9A2NnRoKSeWTRr0OK1Q

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by transmitterdan

We need more information on how someone can become immune. It may require that someone become ill before their immune system develops antibodies.

The Chinese research focused on people who tested positive for the virus. Then they monitored them to see if they developed any symptoms. They did not use an antibody test that would signify immunity.

Interesting. Thanks for the additional info.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by smbdyiam2

Thank you I think that your posting are usefull and informing. I don't always agree with the news inside. I didn't say it was right or wrong just I don't always agree,as in this line (
"Testing is the biggest challenge, and will be the biggest hurdle,"[/B] he said at a press conference. ) I think the biggest challenge is "a cure" not testing or relief or numbers. A cure. I see lots of talk about numbers and economy etc. But the focus should be on cure. The person in I C U with ventilator is not worried about his or anyone else's money. Neither is the person living under a bridge trying to find next meal with out see anyone. all talk of money should be spent on protection and cure. KEEP POSTING I will try to keep reading. Lee

It would be highly beneficial to have an effective therapeutic to aid those that become serious ill / critically ill. It is rather unlikely that the existing therapeutics will be a magic bullet, but may aid and enhance outcome potential. Numerous trials are being conducted including on existing drugs and treatments, such as:

Anti-virals such as Remdesivir an intravenous antiviral drug that was developed to block infection with related coronaviruses and even Ebola; ,And Lopinavir/ritonavir, this is a drug combination used against viruses like HIV. It works in a similar way to remdesivir by blocking key viral proteins called “proteases”.

Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine
Both of these drugs are currently used to treat malaria and the autoimmune disease lupus. Chloroquine has been tested against lots of different infections because in the lab it can block viruses – including SARS-CoV-2 - from getting inside cells placed in a dish and so prevent infection. Caution should be observed with chloroquine as it can have significant side effects in certain people and may even block the immune response – the desired result in lupus treatment.

Passive immunization which is the transfer – or transfusion – of potential protective antibodies from someone who has been infected and recovered from COVID-19 to someone who is at high-risk or is suffering from a SARS-CoV-2 infection. This so-called “convalescent sera” (which is a purified blood product from someone who has recovered from COVID-19) can block SARS-CoV-2 in cells in a dish in the lab and has the potential to help develop treatments.

Another kind of possible treatment works by blocking parts of our own immune system that are likely overreacting to SARS-CoV-2 infection and contributing to the damage in our lungs.

In the limited studies that have been conducted on COVID-19, it seems that in some severe cases our immune response goes into overdrive without being able to clear the infection and this can increase the severity of the disease. When this happens, high levels of inflammation is found in the lungs.

Potential treatments that look at blocking the immune components linked to this severity have begun. That said, extreme caution must be taken when manipulating the immune response during an infection as in the absence of other therapies we rely on our immune response to limit the virus replicating.

The key that will allow for normality to return will be immunity, either through having become infected and developed protective antibodies or by administration of a safe and an effective vaccine. In the meantime trying to discover therapeutics is a race that is underway, but also a very uncertain outcome, it could take many years.

An immunologically naive population is an at risk population and a challenge to contend with. To date the approach has been directed towards non pharmaceutical interventions [NPIs] because that is all they have had. Testing for active viruses have been developed but which tests are not tremendously accurate [false positives and false negatives] and / or are of limited capacities. Serological antibody tests are being developed which are intended to determine if someone has had the disease and developed antibodies, so far the tests are not acceptable as to accuracy and the $64 dollar question will remain as to whether the antibodies do in fact derive protection from reinfection and whether the antibodies diminish in effectiveness over time leading to loss or weakening of immunity.

Edit / Update: Clinical trials typically take years, they are being fast tracked given that this disease is highly dangerous and infectious, but even the criticality can not just make the trials happen. Take for example, yesterdays new regarding Gilead's trial of its coronavirus symptom-treating antiviral drug candidate remdesivir was halted in China. It's the second time a trial for the drug was halted in China because testers were unable to find eligible patients for a clinical trial. The first trial was supposed to test patients with severe cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

[Montanan]

New Zealand's Ardern says many restrictions to be kept in place when lockdown ends

http://https://news.yahoo.com/zealan...032951898.html

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Thursday that significant restrictions would be kept in place even if the country eases the nationwide one-month lockdown enforced to beat the spread of the coronavirus.

New Zealand introduced its highest, level 4 lockdown measures in March, under which offices, schools and all non-essential services like bars, restaurants, cafes and playgrounds were shut down. A decision on whether to lift the lockdown would be made on April 20.

The measures were tougher than most other countries, including neighbouring Australia, where some businesses were allowed to operate.

Ardern said if New Zealand moves to the lower level 3 of restriction, it would permit aspects of the economy to reopen in a safe way but there will be no "rush to normality".

"We have an opportunity to do something no other country has achieved, eliminating the virus," Ardern said at a news conference.

New Zealand reported 15 new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday, taking the total to 1,401 in a nation of about 5 million people. There have been nine deaths.

Ardern said under level 3, some people could return to work and businesses reopen if they are able to provide contactless engagement with customers.

Shops, malls, hardware stores and restaurants will remain shut but can permit online or phone purchases.

Schools can open partially up to year 10 but attendance is voluntary, Ardern said, adding that for children who are able, distance learning is still the best option.

Funerals and weddings will be able to go ahead, but limited to 10 people. But they can only be services and no meals, food or receptions can take place.

“By design, Level 3 is a progression, not a rush to normality. It carries forward many of the restrictions in place at Level 4, including the requirement to mainly be at home in your bubble and to limit contact with others," Ardern said.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by smbdyiam2

"Testing is the biggest challenge, and will be the biggest hurdle,"[/B] he said at a press conference. ) I think the biggest challenge is "a cure" not testing or relief or numbers. A cure.

I believe that rigorous and widespread testing was a key factor in all the places that have been most successful at stopping the spread early. Extensive testing will also be the tool that lets us know the real levels of infection and immunity in the general population. So I think that testing remains a very high priority.

But after that, I do agree that having effective treatments is very important and will be achieved before a vaccine is ready. If COVID-19 becomes a manageable, treatable illness with very low mortality, then it will be reasonable to relax most restrictions on the young and healthy, with support, protection and isolation for the most vulnerable.

And yeah, thanks for your efforts, Montanan. It might be sufficient to just post the headline, one or two key paragraphs, and the link.

[TigerPaws]

The problem with extensive testing is the slippery slope to "daily/weekly" testing requirements with the requisite travel papers/wrist band or Yellow Star of David on your shirt to identify you.

Where will it stop?


Montana Health Officer: Anyone Not Having a Pink Wristband May Not Enter Your Business.
https://www.toddstarnes.com/opinion/...your-business/

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by TigerPaws

The problem with extensive testing is the slippery slope to "daily/weekly" testing requirements with the requisite travel papers/wrist band or Yellow Star of David on your shirt to identify you.

Where will it stop?


Montana Health Officer: Anyone Not Having a Pink Wristband May Not Enter Your Business.
https://www.toddstarnes.com/opinion/...your-business/

It will never stop. Never has, never will. It’s another human disease we carry with us.

[Montanan]

'Bring every ship in': Former Navy secretary says it's time for drastic measures to fight coronavirus

https://www.yahoo.com/news/bring-eve...220526018.html

Business Insider April 15, 2020,

Former Navy Secretary Ray Mabus said the US fleet is facing an "acute problem" with the coronavirus pandemic and that it needs to make drastic measures to combat the disease.

In a "Pod Save The World" podcast released on Wednesday, Mabus pointed out why Navy sailors and Marines were particularly susceptible to the disease. News of the podcast was first reported on by the Navy Times.

"People do not have any way to social distance on any Navy ship, but particularly a carrier," Mabus said. "You've got almost 5,000 people here. And they literally are on top of each other."

Mabus said it was "distressing that it doesn't look like they have a plan" implemented after the political scandal that roiled aboard the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt earlier this month.

As of Wednesday, 615 sailors aboard the ship tested positive. The majority of its crew members have been evacuated to in hotels in Guam, where the ship is in port.

The ship's commander, Capt. Brett Crozier, was relieved of command on April 2 after he emailed a letter to his colleagues about the urgent situation aboard his ship. The letter was eventually leaked to the San Francisco Chronicle, which published its contents. Crozier was fired for what the then-acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly described as circumventing the chain of command.

Modly later resigned on April 7, after he visited the USS Theodore Roosevelt and delivered a profanity-laced speech about the situation on the ship.

According to Mabus, Capt. Crozier's instincts were correct.

"I think what they need to do is bring every ship in," Mabus said. "Offload, like the captain said, offload most of the crew ... a little bit in a rolling fashion ... leave a very skeletal force on board, sanitize the ship, quarantine people for two weeks, make sure nobody's got COVID."

"And then once they go back on that ship, whether it's in port or it's going to sea, they don't get off the ship until this crisis is mitigated," Mabus added.

Mabus admitted that the unorthodox approach of calling in every ship in the service was not ideal, but added it was necessary given the spread of the disease.

"It's going to be hard because they may be inport in Norfolk or in San Diego, and once they go back on the ship and the ship is COVID-free, they're not going to get off to see their families," Mabus said. "But if we don't do that, I think you're going to see the situation that played out on the [USS Theodore Roosevelt] play out over and over again — not just on those big ships, but virtually every ship that we have in the Navy."

Mabus' comments come as the Defense Department reported over 5,000 coronavirus cases. Over 2,800 of the personnel are US service members, 85 of which are hospitalized as of Wednesday. One Navy sailor from the carrier has died after contracting the coronavirus.

Mabus served as the Navy secretary from 2009 to 2017 and also served in the Navy as a surface warfare officer in the 1970s.

[hpeer]

If we can strategically afford to bring home every Navy vessel then we have no strategic need for those vessels.

Good thing he is an ex-Navy Secretary.

Who appointed this numbskull?

......
Our Navy May be over built, or not. I won’t get into that p contest. We need SOME Navy.

[Jdege]

Most insightful graph I've seen is at:

https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

There's a youtube video about it here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc

But the link has more current data.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by hpeer

If we can strategically afford to bring home every Navy vessel then we have no strategic need for those vessels.

Good thing he is an ex-Navy Secretary.

Who appointed this numbskull?

I don't think he meant all at once, or necessarily returning to the US mainland.

What is the operational readiness of a naval vessel with a COVID-19 outbreak? Not 100%. Anyway, I don't suspect that this is a time of elevated global military threat. Seems everyone's preoccupied with other stuff.