corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[Montanan]

Today's alert guidance: March 9, 2020.

The USA State Department: US citizens 'should not travel by cruise ship' amid coronavirus outbreak

[Dr. D]

What might happen: A huge portion of the world could become infected

You might have seen an alarming headline in the Atlanticrecently: You’re likely to get the coronavirus.
The assertion was based off an estimate from Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, who predicted some 40 to 70 percent of all adults around the world would catch the virus within a year. Lipsitch has since revised that estimate downward and with a greater range: He now estimates it’s “plausible” that 20 to 60 percent of adults will catch the disease. (If this comes to pass, while being bad, it’s not apocalyptic: Most cases of Covid-19. are mild. But it does mean millions could die.)
In an email, Lipsitch says his model “assumes that the transmission in the rest of the world is at least fairly similar to that in China.” But “projections should be made with humility,” he adds, as there’s a lot still to uncover that will impact the forecast (like the role children play in spreading the disease).
The bottom line of his modeling, though, is that a sizable portion of the human population is at risk of catching this virus. It might not come to pass — especially if a vaccine or other treatment is developed. But it is possible.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Dr. D

What might happen: A huge portion of the world could become infected

You might have seen an alarming headline in the Atlanticrecently: You’re likely to get the coronavirus.
The assertion was based off an estimate from Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, who predicted some 40 to 70 percent of all adults around the world would catch the virus within a year. Lipsitch has since revised that estimate downward and with a greater range: He now estimates it’s “plausible” that 20 to 60 percent of adults will catch the disease. (If this comes to pass, while being bad, it’s not apocalyptic: Most cases of Covid-19. are mild. But it does mean millions could die.)
In an email, Lipsitch says his model “assumes that the transmission in the rest of the world is at least fairly similar to that in China.” But “projections should be made with humility,” he adds, as there’s a lot still to uncover that will impact the forecast (like the role children play in spreading the disease).
The bottom line of his modeling, though, is that a sizable portion of the human population is at risk of catching this virus. It might not come to pass — especially if a vaccine or other treatment is developed. But it is possible.

The modeling for the short period of initial spread completely changes from the longer term modeling, for two primary reasons, 1) presently modeling has a presumption that persons who become infected, recover and survive will develop degrees of immunity that will inhibit them having a recurrence from a new exposure, or a latent rebound of COVID-19 derived from their first infection, and 2) that effective vaccine(s) are developed and mass produced and deployed. The general expectation for an effective vaccine to become widely deployed is one year out at the earliest and more likely eighteen months. So modeling for a year out tends to not factor for the effect of vaccines.

Lipstich nailed it by stating projections should be made with humility.

[Montanan]

Literally ALL of Italy has now been placed on lockdown. March 9, 2020

All of Italy will be placed under the lockdown conditions thus far imposed upon the so-called “red zone” in the north of the country, the Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte has said.
The restrictions will include banning all public gatherings and preventing all movement other than for work and emergencies. According to the Reuters news agency, he has said the decision was necessary to protect Italy’s most vulnerable citizens and that the right course of action now is for people to stay at home.

The announcement in Italy spells out the restriction of movement of more than 60 million people. The decree provides for banning all public events, closing cinemas, theatres, gyms, discos and pubs, funerals, weddings and all sport events, including Serie A matches. All schools and universities will remain close until at least 3 April

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...te-latest-news

[Montanan]

FYI: Reference illustrative exhibit attached below.

The symptoms of COVID-19

The WHO described the symptoms of 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China in the period up to February 20.

The visualization here shows this data.

It is most crucial to know the common symptoms: fever and a dry cough.

As the visualization shows, close to 90% of cases had a fever and two-thirds had a dry cough.

The third most common symptom was fatigue. Almost 40% of cases suffered from it.

‘Sputum production’ was experienced by every third person. Sputum is not saliva. It is a thick mucus which is coughed up from the lungs and trachia.

Of the 55,924 cases fewer than 1-in-5 (18.6%) experienced shortness of breath (‘dyspnoea’). An earlier study, reported that a much higher share (55%) of cases suffered from dyspnoea [difficult or labored breathing], but this was based on a much smaller number of cases (835 patients).14

Many of the most common symptoms are shared with those of the common flu or cold. So it is also good to know which common symptoms of the common flu or the common cold are not symptoms of COVID-19. COVID-19 infection seems to rarely cause a runny nose.

Godspeed everyone.

[belizesailor]

Panama just announced: 8 confirmed cases now, 1 death.

Panama Gov is now prohibiting travel from many infected countries.

[Montanan]

One chart reveals why canceling sports games and working from home is crucial to curbing the spread of the coronavirus pandemic

lramsey@businessinsider.com (Lydia Ramsey)
Business InsiderMarch 11, 2020, 8:01 AM MDT

The novel coronavirus outbreak could stretch the healthcare system to its limits.

According to a report from New York state in 2015, the state would only have about 15% of the ventilators needed to care for patients in a severe pandemic, similar to the 1918 flu outbreak.

The estimates show why protective social distancing measures like quarantining people who come in contact with infected individuals and closing schools and workplaces could be key to keeping the outbreak from overwhelming the US healthcare system.

One graph shows how the measures could help keep the US healthcare system from being overwhelmed. The idea, called #FlattenTheCurve, is going viral.

Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.

The novel coronavirus outbreak could push the US healthcare system to its limits.

In particular, intensive care units, which treat the sickest patients, could face shortages of key equipment like ventilators. They could also face staffing shortages and run out of space, should the outbreak be as widespread as some estimates suggest it could get.

A chart from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention highlights the importance of protective measures like closing workplaces and canceling large gatherings such as sports games in mitigating the spread of the COVID-19 virus. That, in turn, would help stop the virus from overwhelming the US healthcare system.

Never miss out on healthcare news. Subscribe to Dispensed, our weekly newsletter on pharma, biotech, and healthcare.

Why preventive measures could help
The looming threat of shortages of space, materials, and people to care for patients has led to public health officials in other countries taking drastic steps to curb the spread of the virus, placing cities and even whole countries on lockdown.

A review conducted by researchers at the University of Hong Kong and published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Emerging Infectious Disease journal evaluated the effectiveness of six measures to reduce the transmission of influenza:

isolating people who are ill

tracing contact to find out others who might have come in contact with a sick individual

quarantining people who may have been exposed

closing schools

closing work

avoiding crowds


Ideally, using a mix of the social distancing techniques, countries like the US could keep the spread of the COVID-19 virus within the limits of health systems, as demonstrated with this chart.

The idea is to reduce the number of people who are sick at the peak of the virus's spread, so that the health system isn't overwhelmed, and more people can get life-saving care.

That's especially important in the absence of pharmaceutical treatments or a preventive vaccine for the virus.

Pleas to help "flatten the curve" have gone viral as the US looks for measures to curb the spread of the virus.

It's led to school closures, cancellations of major events, and companies mandating employees work from home.

Already, the social-distancing measures seem to be leading to a fewer infections in countries that had early spread of the disease. China has seen a dramatic reduction of infections and deaths after taking drastic actions like locking down cities amid the outbreak.

South Korea, which has tested more than 140,000 people for the virus, has started to see a slowdown in cases amid decisions to cancel school and large social gatherings.

More than 121,000 people worldwide have been infected with the novel coronavirus and more than 4,300 deaths have been reported. The US accounts for more than 1,000 of those cases and 31 of the deaths.

Facing capacity issues
Without the measures, the healthcare system risks being overrun by patients who need care and not enough supplies to care for them.

For instance, ventilator guidelines for New York state released in 2015 note that there are 7,241 ventilators available, with an additional 1,750 stockpiled. Ventilators are a crucial tool to care for people sickened by the flu or the novel coronavirus, both of which make it hard for patients to breath in severe cases.

Under an extreme influenza pandemic scenario outlined in the document, hospitals in the state would only have about 15% of the ventilators they need to care for patients, assuming ventilators are still being used for other patients not related to the outbreak.

The American Hospital Association, which represents thousands of hospitals and health systems, hosted a webinar in February with its member hospitals and health systems. Business Insider obtained a copy of the slides presented.

As part of the presentation to hospitals, Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his "best guess" estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US.

The estimates include:

4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus

1.9 million patients requiring care in an intensive care unit

96 million cases overall in the US

480,000 deaths

There are roughly 95,000 intensive care unit beds in the US. The slide below does not give a particular time frame. It shows a conceptual desired goal not how to get to that goal.



Already in Italy, in parts of the country hardest hit by the coronavirus, clinicians are facing a shortage of medical supplies and hospital beds. Doctors are being forced to make tough decisions about who to treat.

In a March letter, professionals coordinating the response in northern Italy wrote that hospitals in the area are seeing a high number of ICU admissions, because of respiratory failure that requires ventilation. About 10% of all patients who've tested positive for the virus have been admitted to ICUs, they wrote.

[Montanan]

March 11, 2020, evening.

Pres. Trump announces suspension of "all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days. The new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight.

"The restrictions will "not apply to the United Kingdom,"

[Montanan]

Evening of March 11,

Coronavirus: Italy shuts nearly all shops as WHO declares pandemic.

Italy is to close all shops except food stores and pharmacies in Europe's toughest lockdown yet as virus deaths and cases continue to mount.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said bars, restaurants, hairdressers and non-essential company departments would also close.

The country has already closed schools, gyms, museums, nightclubs and other venues across the country.

[AKA-None]

Originally Posted by Montanan

March 11, 2020, evening.



Pres. Trump announces suspension of "all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days. The new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight.



"The restrictions will "not apply to the United Kingdom,"

I don’t understand that last point. Why everyone but the uk?

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by AKA-None

I don’t understand that last point. Why everyone but the uk?

That is confusing just about everyone, especially since one can travel from Europe to the UK and then presumably to the USA.

Perhaps they will just shoot all UK arrivals, yelling the Red Coats are Coming! A fluid situation. Trump's speech seemed to also imply that all "trade" e.e.g, things, cargo, everything from Europe was going to be restricted, which added to the confusion.

The speech was not very explicit, I think it was an on the fly communication, a bit more prepared than one of his tweets but certainly not well vetted, or he just opted to go rogue half way through reading the teleprompter.

I'm sure more detail will be forthcoming. There be a lot of WTF did he just say.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Montanan

March 11, 2020, evening.

Pres. Trump announces suspension of "all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days. The new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight.

"The restrictions will "not apply to the United Kingdom,"

We will, of course, be needing a lot of clarification on that one.

I think it's mostly referring to foreign nationals. But everyone coming in is likely to go through some kind of process. Makes sense, but very hard actually accomplish.

Trump mentioned Friday as when this will take place. They do have some experience with this, as they did the same thing for China last month.

Will be a lot clearer when the details come out tomorrow.

[Sojourner]

Originally Posted by AKA-None

I don’t understand that last point. Why everyone but the uk?

Because that moron politicizes his farts. UK good to go because they hooked their wagon to his pal Boris and stuck a middle finger at the EU. Plain and simple.

[Sonny36]

To zero in on specific countries as to number of cases, this link should be most helpful: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6


It is updated hourly, I think. Check the graphic at bottom right. It shows China leveling off, while "other locations" are increasing.

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by Sojourner

Because that moron politicizes his farts. UK good to go because they hooked their wagon to his pal Boris and stuck a middle finger at the EU. Plain and simple.

Perhaps because Italy/France/Spain and Germany already have the greatest infected numbers compared to UK. Further compromised with no border checks no Island barrier and a confused decision making process.

I am quite sure if UK /US numbers go up, both countries will close down travel with each other.

No need to be "already smelling"....politics
It is we old farts that are at greatest risk!