corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[B23iL23]

You missed (or ignored) the point I was making. Ignore all the herd stuff, the infection rate per 1000 population, the testing rates the ... bla bla bla.

Just look at the number of deaths in an 8 week period and then tell me this is normal.

It is NOT normal. It's not the usual winter bug and anyway that claims it is is kidding themselves or just being reckless.

So anyway I am done posting. Said my piece and will retire to my social distancing and keep fingers crossed for everyone. Stay safe, ignore the people that believe they understand this better than the experts with life long experience and don't take this thing lightly. It can kill you.

Originally Posted by Exile

You posted this in response to this interview with a leading Swedish epidemiologist: https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up...of2YDemk9qL7d8. I don't think the legitimate questions you pose about the concentrated deaths CV-19 has produced in NY and other locales were answered in the interview. Instead, the interview was summarized as follows:

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
• The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
• The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
• The paper was very much too pessimistic
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
• Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

[Exile]

Originally Posted by B23iL23

You missed (or ignored) the point I was making. Ignore all the herd stuff, the infection rate per 1000 population, the testing rates the ... bla bla bla.

Just look at the number of deaths in an 8 week period and then tell me this is normal.

It is NOT normal. It's not the usual winter bug and anyway that claims it is is kidding themselves or just being reckless.

So anyway I am done posting. Said my piece and will retire to my social distancing and keep fingers crossed for everyone. Stay safe, ignore the people that believe they understand this better than the experts with life long experience and don't take this thing lightly. It can kill you.

No, no. Maybe I wasn't clear or you misunderstood my post. I wasn't disputing your comment about the number of (concentrated) deaths in an 8 week period. I'm not an epidemiologist and so don't know what may be a "normal" number of deaths in any given amount of time for places such as NYC or the UK. But I'm sure those statistics are available for comparison sake.

[GordMay]

[delmarrey]

Over 1,000 Sailors On French Aircraft Carrier Test Positive For Coronavirus

Of the 2,300 sailors in the carrier group, 1,081 had so far tested positive with about 300 results still to be finalised.

Twenty-four crew were in hospital, including one in intensive care, and 545 showing COVID-19 symptoms were being monitored.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/covi...avirus-2213772

This virus has shown to be really deadly

[GordMay]

St. John Ambulance (SJA) in Thunder Bay, Ont., is offering a free first aid awareness course on its website until May 31. Although the course is not certified, it is a good a refresher to those who have taken basic first aid.
Register ➥ https://ont.sjatraining.ca/RegisterFAA.php

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by delmarrey

Over 1,000 Sailors On French Aircraft Carrier Test Positive For Coronavirus

Of the 2,300 sailors in the carrier group, 1,081 had so far tested positive with about 300 results still to be finalised.


https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/covi...avirus-2213772

This virus has shown to be really deadly

Are the 1000 sailors dead?

[Exile]

Originally Posted by lestersails

Hi Again,
Another source you might want to consider is FiveThirtyEight.com. This is primarily a sports statistics site run by Nate Silver, one of the original MoneyBall gurus, but they also do other good statistical analyses, including health and science. They are running periodic pieces on meta-analyses of epidemiology experts estimates of the outbreak. Yesterday's analysis is here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-end-of-april/

Stay healthy out there!

The headline is "Experts Think The U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll Will Hit 50,000 By The End Of April." The end of April will surely not mark the end of the death toll from CV-19. But maybe for some perspective, 50,000 is approx. 0.00015% of the US total population.

[fivecapes]

Originally Posted by Exile

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
• The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
• The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown - I don't get this
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries why?
• Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
  

Wrt to lockdowns, Singapore strenuously resisted one until it couldn't, much like its policy on masks.

Herd immunity has pretty much been thrown out as recovered are retesting positive.

Why don't people get that this is a new (and additional) way to die?

50,000 is approx. 0.00015% of the US total population

You're off by a couple of 0's

[delmarrey]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Are the 1000 sailors dead?

Nope! They didn’t mention one.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by fivecapes

Wrt to lockdowns, Singapore strenously resisted one until it couldn't, much like its policy on masks.

Herd immunity has pretty much been thrown out as recovered are retesting positive.

Why don't people get that this is a new (and additional) way to die?



You're off by a couple of 0's

Yeah, I think you're right -- sorry. The calculation came to 0.00015 but that's 0.015%. Thanks.

In some respects, the Swedish epidemiologist in the interview likened the impact of CV-19 to the more common influenza flu that hits every winter. But certainly not in every respect. The interview is kinda long (30m) but worth watching.

[lestersails]

Originally Posted by delmarrey

Nope! They didn’t mention one.

...and your point is???

[rbk]

Some good news (not verified). Maybe they’ll let us outside on nice days soon...
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/sunlight-d...200745675.html

[transmitterdan]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Until/unless we get vastly improved testing (near universal & accutate), any estimates of actual infection numbers is/are going to be very speculative. Some guesstimates will be much more informed, than others.

I believe this statement, purportedly made by an expert in disease control, to be nonsense. Does no one in the field of disease monitoring and control believe in random sampling? Of course they do. It is done all the time to establish the prevalence of all kinds of medical conditions.
We don’t need universal testing to give us an accurate number of people who have been infected. We don’t need guesstimates either. We just have to test enough persons with a known test accuracy to make valid statistical computations.
If we wanted to, we could know the true infection rate in as little as a week. All that is required is a well designed testing survey. FedEx, Amazon and UPS could deliver the testing supplies all over the country literally overnight. Plenty would volunteer to be tested. Then ship samples overnight back to the labs. We could have results in days. One wonders why it has not been done already.

[transmitterdan]

Originally Posted by lestersails

...and your point is???

I think the point is that deaths due to COVID-19 are exceedingly rare in healthy young people.
It is a terrible disease to be sure, much worse than influenza for several reasons. But it is not a death sentence for the vast majority of people.

[TigerPaws]

Originally Posted by Exile

The headline is "Experts Think The U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll Will Hit 50,000 By The End Of April." The end of April will surely not mark the end of the death toll from CV-19. But maybe for some perspective, 50,000 is approx. 0.00015% of the US total population.

How can you or anyone trust those numbers when the CDC and other authorities admit to adding "suspected but untested deaths" to the official numbers.

The numbers may be close but no one knows because the numbers are unconfirmed so they are totally worthless. Doctors, nurses and corners are being ordered to change the cause of death to COVID-19 even when there is no evidence that was the cause of death.

Remember you can tell when a gov official is lying when you see their lips moving.