corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[Woodland Hills]

Originally Posted by TigerPaws

I would refuse because it is a violation of my privacy as many other will.

I am not concerned about universal testing because I believe it will be useless. What I am concerned about is gov overreach of personal rights.

And FYI I am not a U.S. flagged vessel, never have been, never will and I have not been in U.S. waters in many years.

Then you are free to stay privately on your boat or in your home until you are. Freedom of choice! You can choose quarantine or you can choose to prove you will not infect your fellow humans. See how easy it is?

[TigerPaws]

Originally Posted by Woodland Hills

Then you are free to stay privately on your boat or in your home until you are. Freedom of choice! You can choose quarantine or you can choose to prove you will not infect your fellow humans. See how easy it is?

How do I and others prove we are not infectious? What Mark of the Beast are you recommending?

[Woodland Hills]

Originally Posted by TigerPaws

How do I and others prove we are not infectious? What Mark of the Beast are you recommending?

If you are a committed conscientious objector, how about a tattoo on your forehead? And requiring you to ring a bell as you walk through the streets?

[delmarrey]

OAN Newsroom
UPDATED 6:55 PM PT — Thursday, April 16, 2020

According to top Army officials, more than 900 soldiers from all three components have tested positive for COVID-19 and have been mostly asymptomatic. During Thursday’s Pentagon briefing, officials confirmed they are ramping up their efforts and touted their current testing capabilities, which have reached roughly 700 people per day.

They said testing measures were in place at Fort Jackson in South Carolina, which operates the Army’s basic combat training. The Army has also implemented social distancing guidelines and will now require troops to wear face coverings.

The Army has said it will continue training with the current strict health practices in place.

“We’ll manage the risk. We don’t have a vaccination right now and we are training soldiers. We are going to continue to train soldiers in a safe environment with very, very strict measures that we talked about, from social distancing to screening to testing. We need to make sure that our Army is ready to go to war, and we’re going to make sure that our soldiers are ready. We have an obligation to do that.”

– Gen. James McConville, Army Chief of Staff

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Woodland Hills

A quick way to to triple testing, from Kevin Drum:

I’m sort of intrigued by the idea of increasing test throughput by testing groups of people. It’s a simple idea: you take swabs from, say, 10 people, mix them all together, and then run them through the PCR machine. If it comes back negative, the entire group is cleared. Only if you get a positive result do you go back and do individual tests to see who’s infected. On average, about three out of four tests would come back negative, which means you’d run 14 tests for 40 people rather than 40 tests. That triples your throughput even with no increase in testing capacity.

Why wouldn’t this work?

Interesting.
I look forward to reading an evaluation.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Woodland Hills

Certainly not, just make it mandatory if you want to go back to work. Your freedom to not be tested ends at my right not to be infected by you when you are at work...

Indeed.

[rbk]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

The Atlantis published this chart. Although it is specific to the US it would apply to the world. Those who think it is just another flu should take a close look.

https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publi...ashes-not-like

Data shown in the graphs is incorrect. As it stands the current death/million is at 115, slightly higher than influenza shown average and lower than 2017/18 high. The data also assumes the rate will keep growing exponentially, this biases the trend. They also fail to mention that they are comparing numbers of an unvaccinated covid vs a vaccinated influenza, they should not be compared directly. If and when a vaccine is produced only then can they be directly compared. Otherwise it’s like comparing the common cold (rhv) to polio, it could be argued that comparing those two numbers directly that the common cold is more dangerous than polio.

[Discovery 15797]

Originally Posted by TigerPaws

I would refuse because it is a violation of my privacy as many other will.

I am not concerned about universal testing because I believe it will be useless. What I am concerned about is gov overreach of personal rights.

And FYI I am not a U.S. flagged vessel, never have been, never will and I have not been in U.S. waters in many years.

It really doesn't matter what country's flag you fly.

Countries may demand individuals provide proof (e.g. Yellow Card) of being tested for anti-bodies (or immunization if and when one becomes available) prior to admittance or clearance into that country. Or, perhaps in worse case scenario, they demand a nasal/saliva swab test upon entry at your expense!

If that does occur, your choice will be to preserve your 'personal rights' and stay where your are, or get a test and resume cruising.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by TigerPaws View Post
I would refuse because it is a violation of my privacy as many other will.

I am not concerned about universal testing because I believe it will be useless. What I am concerned about is gov overreach of personal rights.

And FYI I am not a U.S. flagged vessel, never have been, never will and I have not been in U.S. waters in many years.[

Well then, you have no skin in the game, or rights as to how the USA or the States and territories handle the Covid-19 pandemic matters or any potential of government "overreach".

You certainly are free to take up the matter with the country of nationality of your vessel and / or of yourself.

But I also then am left wondering why you have been placing many posts [errhhh, IMO rants] on the thread titled: So, no boating in Michigan." since Michigan waters [also waters of the USA] are of no concern to you. I do boat on Lake Michigan from time to time when visiting clients in the Detroit region.

[smbdyiam2]

Originally Posted by Woodland Hills

If you are a committed conscientious objector, how about a tattoo on your forehead? And requiring you to ring a bell as you walk through the streets?

1960's conscientious objectors did not carry anything not even a draft card

[S/V Adeline]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Um, ALL cellphones can be tracked to the nearest cell tower.

Back in the 1990's I called to utilize my cell companies *automotive towing* perk. She asked me to hang up and called me back, at which point she told me how many car spaces were between my truck and the main entrance....she was dead on...over 20 years ago..

[zeehag]

so there are many false negative tests, it is not merely a swab of cheek. itis oropharyngeal swab..somewhat more uncomfortable. i am wondering if the false negatives are from improper swab technique.....
there are many asymptomatic cases.
a vaccine is not magically going to eradicate the virus. see all other vaccines and the influenzas for which they were created....
the same vaccine pusher, gates, is responsible for many damaged and dead kids in india from a vaccine he pushed. gates n is not a medical man nor an engineer nor any other credentialed individual. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/41280050.cms
seems a good antiviral preparation would be safer and more effective.
have the recipients of the hydroxychloroquine/zpak recipients and recoveries been tested post recovery to ensure the riddance or not of virus, or is the decree merely based on conjecture.
seems most of mexico is under stay in house orders until end may, currently. disinfection of streets and marinas is ongoing.

[dannc]

Originally Posted by Exile

The headline is "Experts Think The U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll Will Hit 50,000 By The End Of April." The end of April will surely not mark the end of the death toll from CV-19. But maybe for some perspective, 50,000 is approx. 0.00015% of the US total population.

I have been following this website's,https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america, guestimates for most of the lock down.

There current guestimate is that 60,308 people will die in the US because of the virus. They ago out to August 4th but their graph shows the last person dying on June 22nd. The slope is gradually rising for the number of deaths but it should start going flat. The actual numbers are a bit high than what they predicted for the US but still pretty danged close to what they guessed.

There guestimates from the end of March had 81,114 people dying in the US.

With better data, they have lowered their guestimate by over 20,000 deaths.

The website' death guestimates from NC have been consistently higher that the actual number of deaths, but still in the low end of the range they provide. Or to put it another way, they are in the ballpark but on the low side for my state but slightly higher across the US.

The website predicts 55,000ish dead by end of April, with a range of 33,558 to 120,316.

Later,
Dan

[dannc]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

What I am really corious about is a comparison per country of deaths last year per month compared with death this year per month per country, then there may or may not be evidence of a deadly pandemic.

The only country where I have seen this published is the Netherlands. They looked at the current number of deaths compared to the last three years.

It is not believable to me that the Chinese government does not have a good idea of how many people have died because of the virus. One does not need swabs, blood tests, MRI/Cat scans or Xrays to know who had the virus and then died. In Wuhan it seems they have seven crematoriums plus the mobile units the were brought in to handle the increased number of dead. It beggers belief that they did not count how many bodies were cremated.

All one has to do is compare the current number of deaths with prior years, subtract the difference, and one has a good idea on how many people died from the virus.

Later,
Dan

[Waveguide]

Originally Posted by Exile

You posted this in response to this interview with a leading Swedish epidemiologist: https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up...of2YDemk9qL7d8. I don't think the legitimate questions you pose about the concentrated deaths CV-19 has produced in NY and other locales were answered in the interview. Instead, the interview was summarized as follows:

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
• The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
• The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
• The paper was very much too pessimistic
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
• Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

The "Swedish" strategy isn't working out too well. Their strategy is to just "take the hit" and build herd immunity. The flaw in that logic is: there is no evidence that herd immunity based on post-exposures can actually exist. Further, the strength of any immunity appears to be proportional to the severity of the illness -- so those who are asymptomatic may have practically no immunity at all.

Those who are claiming that a vast number of uncounted exposures exist may be arguing an irrelevant point because those uncounted exposures may have produced no real immunity.

The Swedish strategy may produce a very sad outcome causing needless deaths and disability if an effective antiviral treatment is developed soon.

As of 6:20 PM PDT, 17 April. Source: Johns Hopkins: https://google.com/covid19-map/

The comparative consequences:

US
Fatalities: 36,589
Fatality rate per 100,000 = (36,589 / 331,002,651) X 100,000 = 11

Sweden
Fatalities: 1,400
Fatality rate per 100,000 = (1,400 / 10,099,265) X 100,000 = 127

The Swedish death rate is more than 10 times worse!

Here's a report on the topic: The Grim Truth About the “Swedish Model”

I've heard several people say, in effect: "I've probably already been exposed." So what? Unless you got very sick, you probably have no immunity, and even if you got very sick, that immunity may vanish in a very short time. And even if you are immunnie: which variant of the virus did you catch? It's a moving target. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100

Until we get effective treatments and (doubtedly) a vaccine, all we can do is try to slow this monster down until a treatment is developed.

SARS-CoV-2 is not the flu.