corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Waveguide

I've heard several people say, in effect: "I've probably already been exposed." So what?

One question raised from the theory that most people may catch COVID-19 but not actually get sick (and not generate antibodies)... is it possibly the case that those people will not get sick from it, period? I'm thinking "herd indifference" as opposed to herd immunity. So many questions....

[Waveguide]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

One question raised from the theory that most people may catch COVID-19 but not actually get sick (and not generate antibodies)... is it possibly the case that those people will not get sick from it, period? I'm thinking "herd indifference" as opposed to herd immunity. So many questions....

It's possible. There may be some people who are inherently immune to SARS-CoV-2, such as those who have inherent immunity to HIV arising from having the CCR5-delta 32 mutation, which deletes the receptor site that virus uses to invade cells.

For survival of a species, genetic diversity is a very good thing!

An example of the opposite consequence is the Great Potato Famine in Ireland, where all the potatoes were just one monoculture. When one potato got sick, they all got sick.

[Montanan]

People entering Canada could face a $750,000 fine if they don't quarantine for 14 days — even if they don't show coronavirus symptoms

It is an old expression don't mess with Texas, but I think when it comes to border crossing into Canada, it can now be said: Don't mess with Canada. This is also un-Canadian like. Welcome or Not Welcome to the New Normal, Eh.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/people-en...122800891.html

Canada has so far avoided the United States' coronavirus fate, and is taking drastic measures to ensure it stays that way.

The country on Tuesday announced that all travelers entering the country would be required to quarantine themselves for 14 days, even if they aren't showing symptoms of COVID-19.

There are "few exceptions," to the rules, the government's public health agency said, besides those who "ensure the continued flow of goods and essential services, or individuals who receive or provide other essential services to Canadians."

Those exempt individuals, like truck drivers, are still required to wear a mask upon entry to the country and while in transit. The rules are punishable by a fine of up to $750,000 or a month in jail, and the government will be conducting spot checks to ensure compliance, it said.

On Friday, Canada announced even stricter measures.

All air travelers will be required to "have a non-medical mask or face covering to cover their mouth and nose during travel" beginning Saturday at 12 noon, local time. They'll also be required to show they have the mask during boarding, so that they can follow the previous rules once they land.

"Canadians should continue to follow public health advice and stay at home if possible," Marc Garneau, the country's minister of transport, said in a press release.

[Montanan]

Gilead’s Coronavirus Treatment Has Investors Excited, but the Latest Study Looks Inconclusive
Daniel Tenreiro
National ReviewApril 18, 2020

https://www.yahoo.com/news/gilead-co...211024043.html


On Thursday, STAT News reported positive results from a clinical trial of remdesivir (RDV), a potential antiviral treatment for the coronavirus. Leaked data from a University of Chicago clinic participating in the study showed marked improvements in 113 COVID-19 patients with severe symptoms. Markets rallied on the news, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 stock indexes jumping more than 2 percent. Shares of Gilead Sciences, the pharmaceutical company developing remdesivir, gained 10 percent when the market opened.

Remdesivir is a nucleoside analogue that works by inhibiting viral reproduction. Administered intravenously, RDV has a better safety profile than other drugs under consideration for COVID-19 treatment. Gilead initially developed RDV as a treatment for Ebola, and though it did not prove effective in that case, it works against SARS-CoV-2 in vitro. If effective in humans, RDV would enable the rollback of physical-distancing measures and business closures. “Problem solved,” the stock-market rally seemed to say.

But the results leaked Thursday are far from definitive. The study in question is a “compassionate use” trial, in which experimental drugs are given to patients with severe illnesses prior to FDA approval. Compassionate-use studies do not include control groups of patients not treated with the drug, making it impossible to distinguish between the effects of RDV and the natural course of the illness. Gilead was quick to caution against reading too much into the preliminary results, saying in a statement that “the totality of the data need to be analyzed in order to draw any conclusions from the trial.” Indeed, the outcomes of the Chicago patients could be wholly unrelated to the treatment, and there is some evidence that the results are unexceptional.

As Harvard doctor Jeremy Faust pointed out, the trial treated patients in “severe” condition but not those in “critical” condition. Severe cases comprise those with a blood oxygen level at 94 percent saturation or lower, as well as those receiving oxygen support. Patients in critical condition, on the other hand, experience severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome. According to the trial protocol for compassionate use of RDV, in critical cases, “treatment with RDV might have only limited, if any, impact on the survival of the infected subjects.” Because RDV is meant to preempt the worst symptoms, the current studies exclude patients in critical condition.

But only critical symptoms lead to death: A COVID-19 study from China recorded zero deaths of patients with severe symptoms. It’s possible that the patients in the Gilead trial would have developed critical symptoms, but it’s not certain. Based on a back-of-the-envelope analysis combining two studies of the clinical progression of COVID-19, roughly 9 percent of severe cases become critical, and approximately 3 percent of patients with severe symptoms die. These numbers indicate that of the 113 cases in the Chicago trial, around four were likely to die without a therapeutic. Two patients have died, which, albeit an apparent improvement, suggests only a statistically insignificant impact. That doesn’t undermine the efficacy of RDV; the sample sizes are small, and numerous unobserved variables affect medical outcomes. But that’s the point: It’s hard to conclude very much from compassionate-use studies.

What’s stranger about the exuberant response to the STAT report is that similar results had already been published. An April 10 study in the New England Journal of Medicine reported some positive outcomes of RDV use in a sample of 61 patients. Replication of those results at UChicago is encouraging, but it’s hardly a blockbuster.

Why did investors buy up Gilead stock on the news? Perhaps STAT’s framing of the news as an “early peek” at inside information excited markets. The vagueness of the story could be interpreted as a negative, because of the risk that the unpublished results are less rosy than they appear, but it could also be interpreted as a positive: What if the results are even better than we think?

Though still unproven, remdesivir shows promise, and we should all hope it works. Pharmacologist Donald Kirsch told National Review that RDV remains the therapeutic most likely to treat COVID-19 because it “targets the virus directly, unlike some of the other treatments such as anti-inflammatories that target the immune response.” A study released Wednesday found that the drug was effective in rhesus monkeys — another encouraging sign. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases launched a double-blind randomized control trial of RDV in February, which will provide definitive evidence of the drug’s safety and efficacy.

Until those results come out, we won’t know for sure how effective RDV is. Policymakers should continue to accelerate drug development and build capacity to administer drugs that work. But the likelihood of a COVID-19 therapeutic in the near future remains slim. Relying on a Hail Mary to reopen the economy is too risky. The White House guidelines for reopening, which emphasize contact tracing and building medical capacity, point in the right direction. While a COVID-19 drug would be a miracle, we should plan for a future without one.

[Montanan]

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez on Saturday announced the nationwide coronavirus lockdown would be extended two weeks to May 9, hours after the official death toll passed 20,000.

"We have done the hardest part through responsibility and social discipline... we are putting the most extreme moments behind us," Sanchez said. But Spaniards must not jeopardise the fragile gains made so far with hasty decisions.

The restrictions currently in place would however be loosened slightly to allow children time outside from April 27, said Sanchez.

Until now only adults have been able to leave the house for specific reasons: to go to work, to go shopping for food or medicine, for a medical appointment or to work the dog.

But there were growing calls to let children outside, as is permitted in most other countries observing a lockdown.

Spain, which has been under confinement since March 14, has recorded 20,043 deaths from the virus, the latest health ministry figures showed -- the third-highest official toll after the United States and Italy.

Health officials nevertheless say Spain has passed the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak which killed up to 950 people a day on April 2, and pressure is slowly easing on hospitals.

The increase in infections has slowed and the latest daily death toll was 565 people, down from the figure on Friday. The number of people registered as cured has risen to nearly 75,000.

But with almost 200,000 reported cases of the virus, Sanchez warned the country that an end to one of Europe's toughest confinements would be "prudent and progressive".

And he warned: "If necessary, we will reinforce protective measures again."

- Disputed figures -

But the official toll, which covers only people who tested positive for the virus in Spain, has been contested in some regions.

Officials say thousands more people have died after showing symptoms of the disease without actually being tested, because health services do not have enough of them.

Catalonia has reported that more than 7,800 people have died while the national toll for the region referred Saturday to more than 3,800.

Fernando Simon, the health ministry's emergencies coordinator, noted during a daily press briefing Saturday that owing to the strict virus confinement measures, "the current level of transmission is much lower."

The closely-followed rate now indicates that each person infected with COVID-19 in Spain is passing it on to fewer than one other person, which means the disease is no longer spreading.

It was as high as one to three when the Spanish lockdown began.

The government has nonetheless indicated that some economic sectors might not rebound before the end of the year, with tourism the main question mark at the moment.

Madrid Mayor Jose Luis Martinez-Almeida told radio Onda Cero Saturday that no "mass gatherings" such as concerts or sports events would be held in Spain this summer.

[CatNewBee]

News from Sizily / Italy...

Restrictions on jogging and walking 'near your home' lifted in Sicily from tomorrow, Sunday. Activity must be undertaken individually, respecting social distancing. I have translated the most relevant bits from the decree below. Cycling mentioned in a different article but also 'near your home', which is not v. clear from a sports perspective. It will be interesting to see how the police interpret this as it is a slightly confused picture (note, no concrete distances have been given); but a small piece of good news all the same.

April 18, 2020

From tomorrow (Sunday 19 April) you can run and walk near your home and the delivery of food products can also take place on Sunday and public holidays. And, furthermore, the care of your own garden, the maintenance of parks and gardens and the setting up of the seaside resorts will be allowed. The four red areas remain in force, with some new features. A "visa" is introduced to facilitate commuter workers on the Strait of Messina. These are some of the new measures taken by an order from Governor Nello Musumeci.Measures that the President of the Sicilian Region has decided to take taking into account "an inferior spread of the contagion with respect to other parts of the national territory", which allows, therefore, to "uniformly, prudently and proportionally, the urgent containment measures already adopted on the island "with the decree of the President of the Council of Ministers. Here are all the news.

Motor activity and jogging Activities
will be permitted, as required by the decree of the President Council of Ministers.

It begins...

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

One question raised from the theory that most people may catch COVID-19 but not actually get sick (and not generate antibodies)... is it possibly the case that those people will not get sick from it, period? I'm thinking "herd indifference" as opposed to herd immunity. So many questions....

Isn't that the truth. I suspect the release from lockdown is going to have to be very gradual, and even then with some retrenchment at times. I'd hate to have to make such decisions. Not just policymakers, but hospital administrators -- do we re-purpose ICU beds & equipment back to cardiac and other types of post-surgery procedures we do in 'normal' times, only to risk getting caught out w/o enough resources in the event of a 'second wave' should policymakers get it wrong?

[Waveguide]

Originally Posted by Exile

The headline is "Experts Think The U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll Will Hit 50,000 By The End Of April." The end of April will surely not mark the end of the death toll from CV-19. But maybe for some perspective, 50,000 is approx. 0.00015% of the US total population.

Breaking out my grade school math skills here...

US population (estimated): 331,002,651
Stated Fatalities: 50,000 (that number is probably low)
Percent Fatality Rate (50,000 / 331,002,651) X 100 = 0.015 percent (rounded)

For perspective, the US lost 58,220 in the Vietnam "war."

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Waveguide

Breaking out my grade school math skills here...

US population (estimated): 331,002,651
Stated Fatalities: 50,000 (that number is probably low)
Percent Fatality Rate (50,000 / 331,002,651) X 100 = 0.015 percent (rounded)

For perspective, the US lost 58,220 in the Vietnam "war."

Breaking out my grade school reading skills here . . . my math error was quickly pointed out in the very next post, and I then promptly acknowledged and corrected it two posts later. Post #1060.

I don't why you would use the protracted conflict in Vietnam for "perspective" when the "CDC estimates that, as of mid-March [2020], between 29,000 and 59,000 have died due to influenza illnesses" in the US. https://www.health.com/condition/col...flu-every-year. Covid-19 could very well prove to be even deadlier, and its high level of contagion and many unknowns obviously make it more dangerous, but you're the one seemingly searching for "perspective." So there you go.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Waveguide

Breaking out my grade school math skills here...

US population (estimated): 331,002,651
Stated Fatalities: 50,000 (that number is probably low)
Percent Fatality Rate (50,000 / 331,002,651) X 100 = 0.015 percent (rounded)

For perspective, the US lost 58,220 in the Vietnam "war."

And imagine a memorial like the Vietnam War memorial but with the names of all the Covid-19 related deaths engraved. When one walks and touches that memorial, or pauses to make rubbings of a name or names, the magnitude sinks in.

[JPA Cate]

Posts above have been deleted for political content, for promoting illegal action, and for squabbling.

PLEASE restrict your posting to information and citation of the source of the information, and
REFRAIN from political posting.

You know, guys (and gals, if any) it gets really discouraging to come here every morning and see more and more people not following Janet H's guidelines for the whole Covid 19 forum.

She asked everyone to ask themselves if a post in the Covid 19 were three things:
* helpful
* truthful
* kind

Please just do it.

Ann

[fivecapes]

I'll be watching this very closely

Seoul’s Full Cafes, Apple Store Lines Show Mass Testing Success

"While both the U.S. and South Korea confirmed their first virus cases around the same time in late January, the number of infections in the U.S. has swelled to more than 700,000 while Korea “flattened the curve” last month and cases have slowed to just over 10,000."

US cases per million 2,232
S. Korea cases per million 208 as of today

There is a glimmer at the end of the tunnel, but many measures have to fall in place first.

[Waveguide]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

Posts above have been deleted for political content, for promoting illegal action, and for squabbling.

PLEASE restrict your posting to information and citation of the source of the information, and
REFRAIN from political posting.

You know, guys (and gals, if any) it gets really discouraging to come here every morning and see more and more people not following Janet H's guidelines for the whole Covid 19 forum.

She asked everyone to ask themselves if a post in the Covid 19 were three things:
* helpful
* truthful
* kind

Please just do it.

Ann

I hear you, Ann. And agree. It's unfortunate that our world is so highly politicized that one can hardly say anything without risking a perception of some partisan political context. And since the conflicting approaches to dealing with the current crisis often fall into political channels, even the approaches can't be discussed without political subtext.

Hopefully, we won't fall into the "cancel culture" behaviors of seeing only opposing views as being "political." We, the "politi" are involved, so all communications are technically political, even when those communications are purely factual since - we all have our biases on which facts we try to find and present. There's always a subtext. Tolerance is appropriate. Without tolerance, we can't discuss anything.

We are all grieving over losses. Among them are loss of freedom, loss of certainty about our own health, loss of the dignity derived from working, loss of income, loss of savings, and most unfortunately for some, loss of loved ones. One of the stages of grief is blame. Not having some blameful thoughts is to expect us to not be human. I am frankly positively impressed by how most people are expressing that blame. It's mostly been directed toward inadequate planning and resources to meet this threat. Comparing those thoughts with how humanity dealt with the Black Plague in the 14th century - by blaming ethnic groups - is productive and approriate.

Personally, my overwhelming outlook is one of gratitude for the medical community that is heroically coping with this crisis, and the scientific and medical research communities that are guiding us while working hard on solutions.

I will be redouble my own efforts to be mindful in my own future posts to practice kindness. We are all hurting in one way or another.

[AKA-None]

Originally Posted by transmitterdan

Have you seen the studies from China and the US that suggest the actual number of infected persons is somewhere between 5 and 10 times the confirmed case number?



It would be nice if the media, who love bigger numbers, would report the suspected cumulative number of infections worldwide is thought to be 10-25 million. That is likely more accurate than 2+ million confirmed cases suggest.



I wonder why no major media outlet has jumped on that bandwagon?

I think we already have enough guesses with out piling more on that are subject to debate

[Cool Hand Luke]

More restrictions in New Jersey, USA:
http://brick.shorebeat.com/2020/04/n...-rental-boats/