corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[dwedeking2]

“Perhaps it is not the precautions people are upset with. Maybe it is the random guessing and contradictory information by 'experts.' Maybe it is the arbitrary nature of executive orders (e.g. Starbucks allowed to stay open but you can't buy seeds, plants, or garden supplies in Michigan).“

This.

[delmarrey]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Indeed.
Or, perhaps, we are seeing that the aliens, who started this whole thing, are going back to their home planet.

Maybe it could be taken up with the Doctors and scientists that put out these stats. That’s what got us to this point in the first place. Trusting in authorities.

[delmarrey]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

Posts above have been deleted for political content, for promoting illegal action, and for squabbling.

PLEASE restrict your posting to information and citation of the source of the information, and
REFRAIN from political posting.

You know, guys (and gals, if any) it gets really discouraging to come here every morning and see more and more people not following Janet H's guidelines for the whole Covid 19 forum.

She asked everyone to ask themselves if a post in the Covid 19 were three things:
* helpful
* truthful
* kind

Please just do it.

Ann

Trying to FIND the TRUTH seems to be the problem. We don’t know what the truth is, yet! There isn’t any black or white with this pandemic. It’s still under scrutiny.

[lestersails]

Originally Posted by TigerPaws

How can you or anyone trust those numbers when the CDC and other authorities admit to adding "suspected but untested deaths" to the official numbers.

The numbers may be close but no one knows because the numbers are unconfirmed so they are totally worthless. Doctors, nurses and corners are being ordered to change the cause of death to COVID-19 even when there is no evidence that was the cause of death.

Remember you can tell when a gov official is lying when you see their lips moving.

It really makes me sad when I see such cynical and insulting posts. I and hundreds of my colleagues work hard to generate and freely share the highest quality health information. This is as mean spirited as it is false.

[hpeer]

Lester,

I did not see that as insulting. Cynical yes.

Just because your folks are working hard to make it happen does not mean it is happening, no reflection on the front line level.

I think it’s abounds rly clear that 4 months into this virus we still don’t have even rudimentary data we can trust. If for no other reason that test kits are not available. The work coming out of NYC seems pretty good but limited in scope.

[Tayana42]

Originally Posted by lestersails

It really makes me sad when I see such cynical and insulting posts. I and hundreds of my colleagues work hard to generate and freely share the highest quality health information. This is as mean spirited as it is false.

[emoji106]

[lestersails]

Originally Posted by Woodland Hills

A quick way to to triple testing, from Kevin Drum:

I’m sort of intrigued by the idea of increasing test throughput by testing groups of people. It’s a simple idea: you take swabs from, say, 10 people, mix them all together, and then run them through the PCR machine. If it comes back negative, the entire group is cleared. Only if you get a positive result do you go back and do individual tests to see who’s infected. On average, about three out of four tests would come back negative, which means you’d run 14 tests for 40 people rather than 40 tests. That triples your throughput even with no increase in testing capacity.

Why wouldn’t this work?

It can work and has merit. It is a technique used to detect specific DNA/RNA molecules in what are called molecular libraries. You multiplex them two different ways and then can deduce the source of a positive from the pattern of which of the pools is positive. PCR is very sensitive, but not 100% sensitive. So if you have one positive in your pool of ten, you have effectively made your sensitivity level (minimum detectable nucleic acid target concentration), on average, about 10 fold worse. Also, PCR has an attribute that can be hard to predict, which is that certain molecules act as inhibitors, which means that an inhibitor in one person's sample could spoil an entire pool.

[Waveguide]

[QUOTE=delmarrey;3120895]

Originally Posted by nature . com

From what I heard from a Doctor in NYC today is that most fatalities are mostly complicated by obesity. https://youtu.be/1I0xXxgvsBY

I've read the same from several sources. Obesity is a major risk factor. Here's the CDCs obesity map: https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/pre...ps.html#states

(Treading on eggshells here...) Quoting the CDC in that page: "The 2018 maps show that obesity impacts some groups more than others. There are notable differences by race and ethnicity..." I suggest looking at the drill down maps of obesity versus race/ethnicity because some ethnicities have been hit especially hard by COVID. There may be a correlation in that. It would be helpful if the COVID stats showed victim BMIs to help prove/disprove that hypothesis. The data may motivate us all to lose some weight. There are no US states that have less than 20% obesity in their overall populations. That's not good.

Yet another reason for everyone to stay in shape. COVID may be a wake-up call on obesity.

We've all, presumably, wondered what we as individuals can do to protect ourselves. One answer may be: "put down the fork."

[lestersails]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Lester,

I did not see that as insulting. Cynical yes.

Just because your folks are working hard to make it happen does not mean it is happening, no reflection on the front line level.

I think it’s abounds rly clear that 4 months into this virus we still don’t have even rudimentary data we can trust. If for no other reason that test kits are not available. The work coming out of NYC seems pretty good but limited in scope.

Thanks for considering this and your post is much appreciated (and reflects a reasoned view, even if I don't 100% agree). But the other poster said that every govt official is a liar every time they speak - I consider that to be an insult of me. In the current climate it is considered OK to stereotype everyone who works for the govt as liars, lazy, entitled, and corrupt. There are some people like that in every domain (govt, business, the church, non-profits, you name it). But to say that it is universal amongst the govt is false and mean. Period. It needs to be called out.

[AKA-None]

People who make it up as they go along don’t last long in science or at least by their peers. Unfortunately it seems to work for politicians. It might have made more sense to have begun with we don’t know but we’re working on it. Even now that might make sense.
The problem as I see it is so many are jumping to solutions without understanding the problem. As I tell my analysts more often i I hope to don’t dole for the system but figure out the problem, define it and then try to figure out how to solve it.

[Discovery 15797]

Originally Posted by lestersails

It really makes me sad when I see such cynical and insulting posts. I and hundreds of my colleagues work hard to generate and freely share the highest quality health information. This is as mean spirited as it is false.

I think most people respect the efforts of you and your colleagues (I'm assuming you are in the medical or scientific field).

As someone who spent years generating computer models used in evolutionary algorithms I noticed straight away that early modeling efforts of this epidemic were wild guess and highly inaccurate.

So, it is not false to say that some data is inaccurate (especially as portrayed by media). Here is an example.

The addition of the 3,778 “probable” cases instantly increased recorded deaths across the United States of the disease by 17%, the New York Times reported. The Times first reported that the city was counting probable cases in their fatality numbers Tuesday.

On April 17 the CDC changed it's guidelines for collection of surveillance data to include suspected cases which is attributed to the huge spike in NY. Some reports suggest that NY included people who died at home outside the care of a doctor were identified as Covid-19 related deaths w/o molecular or serological test.

There is a difference from people who die from Covid-19 and those suspect, just as it is important to understand the impact on deaths resulting from comorbidity vs. no apparent comorbid condition. Lumping them into the same pool muddies the waters so to speak.

I don't think people are being mean spirited or intend to denigrate people who are working hard to solve this problem.

I do think people are starting to get tired of conflicting messages and inaccurate, sensationalized, misleading reporting from all perspectives.

BTW...thank you for what you are doing.

[lestersails]

Originally Posted by delmarrey

Trying to FIND the TRUTH seems to be the problem. We don’t know what the truth is, yet! There isn’t any black or white with this pandemic. It’s still under scrutiny.

Agree with this on one hand, but on the other, one has to be wise about this line of thinking. In the biological/health sciences one essentially never can be in possession of absolute truth. Instead, one improves knowledge, typically in a gradual fashion, and makes policy decisions based on the best available knowledge. On one hand we have an enormous amount of information about the COVID19 disease and its cause - the complete sequence of the virus was determined within just a few weeks, which is an incredible accomplishment and a powerful tool to enable a lot of things. On the other hand, there are plenty of things we don't know (which I think was your point).
Truth and 'black and white' are probably a long way off (?forever) - but don't despair because a lot of useful knowledge is being developed in the mean time. We all wish it to be faster.

"For every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, clear, and wrong."

[zeehag]

i find issue with statistics.
the problem is that many cases are not reported as rona.
atypical pneumonia has overcome mexico , for example, not rona.
omg.
i have a friend here in this marina who had symptom screaming rona and was not tested, as few in mexico seem to be being tested for rona.
she had lung tap and is improving nicely after half liter of fluid was removed from her lungs. she went into hospital with 02sat 80. in most places that is immediate intubation protocol. unfortunately it seems that is contraindicated in rona as the fluid surrounding lung tissue collapses that
tissue makes breathing and gas exchange reduced, not inside the alveoli which is surrounded in fluid. her antipyritic administered in hospital, not icu, btw, is intravenous acetominophen. heck i didnt know htere was iv acetominophen..awesome work pharma...hahahahaha there seems to be no hydroxychloroquine here at all. her regimen of meds was azithromycin iv, iv acetominophen magnesium and vit c iv and an ergotimine prep iv.
post tap she is improving nicely. she complained of tightess of chest for 3 days before being dragged to hospital. and here i was more concerned with her high risk hubby dying of this issue when he came thru easily and without sequellae so far. he had pneumonia vaccine this year..she didnot...she is in her 50s and healthy without any underlying conditions, he is in his 60s with a history of lung issues.
so. as no testing is being done in many places how can stats be true. not all cases of atypical pneumonia are rona. not all rona are treated correctly iff there is a correctly, and many are sick who were normally healthy and low risk, including some rns and mds and their exposed spouses and families.
this virus is a true mess. is not predictable and spreads fast. surfaces are dangerous unlike other viruses even to the soles of shoes.

[smbdyiam2]

Originally Posted by lestersails

It really makes me sad when I see such cynical and insulting posts. I and hundreds of my colleagues work hard to generate and freely share the highest quality health information. This is as mean spirited as it is false.

I thank you and your colleagues for your hard work . There should be a distinction between Government workers and Politicians. Even some political appointees are not all workers per say. Some times it is hard to tell where one stops and next starts. I do appreciate all the hard workers.

[AKA-None]

That as supposed to read don’t jump to a solution until you understand the actual problem