corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._11905456.html

Belgium has the highest covid mortality rate worldwide, german newspapers claim.

That’s interesting. I’ve been looking at the numbers every day or two and had not noted Belgium creeping up. And the stat sites show them with a 11 doubling rate (relatively slow) and a decreasing death rate.

So that really surprises me.

[hpeer]

Lake Effect,

Read RoverHi’s post above, he also tried to explain it. Maybe that will help.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Lake Effect,

Read RoverHi’s post above, he also tried to explain it. Maybe that will help.

Sure, ill and/or old people generally die sooner than young and/or healthy people.

So?

If COVID-19 takes out someone who would have expired in September, from something else, does that not count? With decent care, many older, infirm and health-compromised people still have acceptable quality of life, in care or otherwise, often for years.

It's my understanding that a person can only die once. Anybody who dies now, will not be part of death stats for later.

[Waveguide]

Sweden has taken a minimalist approach to social distancing. Bars and restaurants have remained open and there has been no "shelter-in-place." So how are they doing? Here are comparisons to their neighbors who have adopted an approach closer to that of California (all numbers are based on stats presented at https://news.google.com/covid19/map?...=US&ceid=US:en as of 11:00 AM PDT):

SWEDEN:

Population: 10,087,047 (source https://www.worldometers.info/world-...en-population/)
COVID fatalities: 1,765
Deaths per 100,000 population: 17.5

Compared to its neighbors, Sweden's COVID death rate is 2.7 times worse than Denmark, 5.1 times worse than Norway, and 7.0 times worse than Finland.


DENMARK:

Population 5,788,275 (source https://www.worldometers.info/world-...rk-population/)
COVID Fatalities: 370
Deaths per 100,000 population: 6.4

NORWAY:

Population: 5,412,979 (source https://www.worldometers.info/world-...ay-population/)
COVID Fatalities: 182
Deaths per 100,000 population: 3.4

FINLAND:

Population: 5,539,072 (source https://www.worldometers.info/world-...nd-population/)
COVID Fatalities: 141
Deaths per 100,000 population 2.5

(Source for the comparative death rates: my pocket calculator.)

Now that some US states are relaxing their restrictions, we'd better get ready for The Second Wave. I wish California could impose its own "immigration freeze" on some other states. It won't surprise me to see a wave of COVID refugees arriving from other states in a while.

"Herd immunity" may be a myth. No one knows yet it if lasting immunity exists. So there may be nothing gained by intentionally exposing Sweden's population, and some states here are taking quite a gamble with their populations. It'll be a shame if an effective treatment is found, and many of those who died could have been saved with a little delay. Remdesivir is showing some promise: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/...t-coronavirus/.

If you prefer quinine-based formulations (hydroxychloroquine), you only have to drink a liter of tonic water to get a small dose of quinine (I'm joking here - but if you have gin as a mixer - it might make you feel generally better about or current situation).

[smbdyiam2]

quote:Uh no, government-supported scientists and healthcare pros should be doing the hard work of analysis and publicizing it. AND it's up to, um, leaders for leading us through this. It's sufficient for news organizations to just report accurately on released info, though many are going further than that with their own analyses. quote:
Is that like Watergate. White water, catholic church, sports. Olympic training Child care, Nursing homes? Any form of self policing ? News is not just reporting . It means digging for truths. News investigators ? Although some do not do as well as others.

[Montanan]

More deaths, no benefit from malaria drug in VA virus study
MARILYNN MARCHIONE
Associated PressApril 21, 2020

http://https://www.yahoo.com/news/mo...160619592.html
A malaria drug widely touted by President Donald Trump for treating the new coronavirus showed no benefit in a large analysis of its use in U.S. veterans hospitals. There were more deaths among those given hydroxychloroquine versus standard care, researchers reported.

The nationwide study was not a rigorous experiment. But with 368 patients, it’s the largest look so far of hydroxychloroquine with or without the antibiotic azithromycin for COVID-19, which has killed more than 171,000 people as of Tuesday.

The study was posted on an online site for researchers and has not been reviewed by other scientists. Grants from the National Institutes of Health and the University of Virginia paid for the work.

Researchers analyzed medical records of 368 male veterans hospitalized with confirmed coronavirus infection at Veterans Health Administration medical centers who died or were discharged by April 11.

About 28% who were given hydroxychloroquine plus usual care died, versus 11% of those getting routine care alone. About 22% of those getting the drug plus azithromycin died too, but the difference between that group and usual care was not considered large enough to rule out other factors that could have affected survival.

Hydroxychloroquine made no difference in the need for a breathing machine, either.

Researchers did not track side effects, but noted a hint that hydroxychloroquine might have damaged other organs. The drug has long been known to have potentially serious side effects, including altering the heartbeat in a way that could lead to sudden death.

Earlier this month, scientists in Brazil stopped part of a study testing chloroquine, an older drug similar to hydroxychloroquine, after heart rhythm problems developed in one-quarter of people given the higher of two doses being tested.

Many doctors have been leery of the drug.

At the University of Wisconsin, Madison, “I think we’re all rather underwhelmed” at what’s been seen among the few patients there who’ve tried it, said Dr. Nasia Safdar, medical director of infection control and prevention.

Patients asked about it soon after Trump started promoting its use, “but now I think that people have realized we don’t know if it works or not” and needs more study, said Safdar, who had no role in the VA analysis.

The NIH and others have more rigorous tests underway.

[Montanan]

Coronavirus Kills More Americans in One Month Than the Flu Kills in One Year
John McCormack
National ReviewApril 21, 2020,

http://https://www.yahoo.com/news/co...162549658.html

Although there is still much we don’t know about the coronavirus, we know enough to say that it is far more dangerous and deadly than the flu. It took twelve months and 61 million infections for the H1N1 swine flu to kill 12,500 Americans in 2009–10. The Centers for Disease Control estimated that the seasonal flu killed 34,200 Americans during the 2018–19 flu season. In 2019, car crashes killed 38,800 Americans.

As for the new coronavirus? On March 20, the death toll in the United States was 225. By April 20, the coronavirus had killed more than 42,000 Americans.

Despite the rapidity with which the coronavirus has killed tens of thousands of Americans, some on the right have continued to argue that the pandemic will end up being no more serious than a bad flu season. On Fox News last week, Bill Bennett said that “we’re going to have fewer fatalities from this than from the flu.” He pointed to the fact that the IMHE model from the University of Washington estimated that COVID-19 would most likely kill about 60,000 Americans and that the seasonal flu killed 61,000 Americans in 2017–18, a particularly bad flu season.

But as Rich Lowry pointed out last week, “if we are going to have 60,000 deaths with people not leaving their homes for more than a month, the number of deaths obviously would have been higher — much higher — if everyone had gone about business as usual.” Indeed, the IMHE model is making an estimate of the death toll only for a first wave of infections, and most of the country will still be vulnerable to infection after the first wave passes.

While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.

Not only does the new coronavirus have the potential to infect many more people than the seasonal flu does, it appears to kill a greater percentage of those infected. You don’t need to rely on various statistical models to come to that conclusion. You just have to look at the reality of what has already happened around the world and in our own country.

The seasonal flu kills 0.1 percent of people infected, but the new coronavirus has already killed 0.1 percent of the entire population of the state of New York. That may seem like a small percentage. But imagine the entire country getting hit as badly as New York state: 0.1 percent of the U.S. population is 330,000 people. And there’s no reason to believe that New York’s current death toll marks the upper limit of the virus’s lethality.

The Wall Street Journal reported that confirmed coronavirus cases in the Italian province of Bergamo (population 1.1 million) had killed 0.2 percent of the entire population in one month. The true percentage may be higher: There were 4,000 more deaths in Bergamo in March 2020 than the average number of deaths in March in recent years, but only 2,000 of those deaths were attributed to confirmed COVID-19 cases.

We are talking not about statistical models of what might happen in the future but about the reality of what has already happened. The virus has killed 100 Italian doctors. That doesn’t happen during a bad flu season. The virus has killed 30 employees of the New York City Police Department. That doesn’t happen during a bad flu season.

And then there’s the experience of China, where the official death toll in Wuhan is 2,500, according to the Communist regime. But there are reports that the true death toll in Wuhan (a city of 10 million) was more than 40,000 people. That’s 0.4 percent of the city’s entire population.

Almost all conservatives are skeptical of Communist China’s official coronavirus death toll. Why, then, do some think that the coronavirus is not much more deadly than the flu? Did Communist China, a regime not known for valuing human life, shut down much of its economy for a couple of months because of a bad flu? Or did Communist leaders fear that without the costly shutdown the virus would inflict much greater harm on their nation and threaten their grip on power?

You don’t have to have a Ph.D. in epidemiology to answer those questions.

No nation can afford to endure a lockdown until a vaccine is developed for the new coronavirus. But having a proper understanding of the virus’s past and present danger matters. Knowing that it is extremely unlikely that the threat will be gone once the first wave passes will help guide the government, businesses, and individuals to take precautions that will limit the virus’s death toll in the months to come.

Last week The New Atlantis produced a chart that starkly portrays just how quickly COVID-19 became one of the leading causes of death in the United States:

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by smbdyiam2

Is that like Watergate. White water, catholic church, sports. Olympic training Child care, Nursing homes? Any form of self policing ? News is not just reporting . It means digging for truths.

If I can refresh your memory:

Originally Posted by hpeer

One of the things our news organizations should be doing is the hard work or accurate analysis and reporting. They should be helping to guide us through this process.

... and my point is that it's primarily the government's job to provide accurate analysis of the COVID-19 stats and to put that out. (And also to lead, btw). News organizations are of course expected to report on all that, and to question things that seem off or incorrect.

Your list is of hidden mistakes/crimes that investigative reporters uncovered. Agreed - a very important function of journalism.

[Waveguide]

Originally Posted by smbdyiam2

quote:Uh no, government-supported scientists and healthcare pros should be doing the hard work of analysis and publicizing it. AND it's up to, um, leaders for leading us through this. It's sufficient for news organizations to just report accurately on released info, though many are going further than that with their own analyses. quote:
Is that like Watergate. White water, catholic church, sports. Olympic training Child care, Nursing homes? Any form of self policing ? News is not just reporting . It means digging for truths. News investigators ? Although some do not do as well as others.

I worked in the media for 12 years (ABC and CNN). Their only product these days is outrage. All of them. It's the second-best selling topic on the air and on the Internet. I'll let you guess what the Number One Internet topic is...

About all you can get is conservative outrage, liberal outrage, and not much else. If you want to become a total cynic - work in any newsroom for a year. Who's to blame? Us. We control the ratings.

This culture is addicted to outrage, and until it develops outrage fatigue, it'll all just keep coming. Keeping that in mind might make a person a little less crazy after reading or watching the news.

And it's not The News, it's just Some News, depending on the audience's favorite flavor of outrage.

[Montanan]

So not encouraging news.

The WHO said only 2 to 3% of people tested have COVID-19 antibodies, suggesting that 'immunity passports' may not be an effective policy
sbaker@businessinsider.com (Sinéad Baker)
Business Insider April 21, 2020,

https://www.yahoo.com/news/said-only...145207814.html

The WHO director-general on Monday said that data suggests no more than 2 to 3% of the population have the antibodies to show they were infected by the coronavirus.

These antibodies are needed to have immunity to the coronavirus before a vaccine is developed.

The head of the World Health Organization on Monday said that likely no more than 2 to 3% of the global population have developed antibodies for COVID-19.

That is a problem for countries hoping to issue "immunity passports" as a way to get back to normal, even before a coronavirus vaccine has been developed.

A second WHO expert said the data does not yet support such a strategy, not least because it is not clear whether those who recover from COVID-19 are in fact immune.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO's director-general, gave the 2 to 3% ballpark at a press conference on Monday, citing studies from around the world that the WHO has supported. He did not give details.

A second WHO expert said the figure is less than expected, and undermines plans to create "immunity passports" as a route back to normal life.

The WHO has also warned there's no evidence the coronavirus antibodies offer long-term immunity and that not all people who recover have the antibodies.

Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO's technical lead on COVID-19, said that the figure was lower than expected, according to the Guardian.

She also cast doubt on countries where officials are exploring ideas of offering "immunity passports" to those who are carrying antibodies. These countries include the US, UK, Germany, and Italy.

Chile has already endorsed the idea and said this week it would issue them to some recovered people.

Of that idea, Van Kerkhove said: "Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serological test can show that an individual has immunity or is protected from reinfection." Serological tests are those which test the blood for antibodies.

The presence of antibodies typically makes a person immune to reinfection for at least a while. But it is not yet clear what kind of protection is afforded by COVID-19 antibodies.

Some are optimistic. Anthony Fauci, the top US infectious-disease expert, has previously said he was "willing to bet anything that people who recover are really protected against reinfection."

Some experts also hope antibodies from recovered patients could help treat other people with COVID-19.

Tedros did not dismiss antibody tests entirely, but said they should be part of a broader response to the pandemic, alongside the more widespread tests to see whether a person was actively infected.

He said the WHO still welcomed the rollout of antibody tests, which he said would help scientists "understand the extent of infection in the population."

[Montanan]

We aren't even nearly through the first wave and now they are saying to prepare for the second wave.

CDC chief says there could be second, possibly worse coronavirus outbreak this winter


https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/polit...eld/index.html

A second coronavirus outbreak could emerge this winter in conjunction with the flu season to make for an even more dire health crisis, the director of the Centers for Disease Control told The Washington Post in an interview.

"There's a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through," CDC Director Robert Redfield said in a story published Tuesday. "And when I've said this to others, they kind of put their head back, they don't understand what I mean."

"We're going to have the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time," he added, predicting a dual assault on the health care system. The current flu season, which began September 29, is projected to be one of the worst in a decade, according to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

His comments come as several governors look to partially reopen their states' economies by loosening some restrictions aimed at limiting the spread of the virus -- despite concerns of subsequent increases in coronavirus cases.

Protesters have come out in multiple states against governors' orders that largely adhere to federal guidelines, and President Donald Trump has encouraged them to "LIBERATE" their states in tweets.

When asked about the protests and their subsequent, Redfield said that "it's not helpful."

While Trump unveiled guidance last week to help states loosen their social distancing restrictions, Redfield called for state officials to spend the next few months preparing for the next phase by continuing to tout social distancing and scaling up testing and contact tracing.

Looking ahead, Redfield cited the need for a preventative campaign to emphasize the importance of flu shots to reduce flu hospitalizations. He said that getting a flu vaccine "may allow there to be a hospital bed available for your mother or grandmother that may get coronavirus."

[lestersails]

Had a virtual cocktail hour with a good friend who has a boat in charter with one of the big bareboat charter companies in the southern Caribbean. Goes without saying that he had far below expected income from the first quarter of 2020 and essentially zero bookings between now and summer. The charter company has invoked force majeure to revoke their 'guaranteed income' provision. But of course all docking and other fees stay at the same high level. As well, insurance premiums continue - at rates that are intended to cover losses from chartering, which ain't the case. And it should go without saying that the loan payments continue unabated.

Note that I am not raising this to undermine the need for restrictions. But a good example of how the pandemic has and will continue to have real impact on folks - no doubt about that.

[Montanan]

Coronavirus: Vaccines 'are long shots', warns UK's chief scientific adviser

Emily Cleary
Yahoo News UK April 20, 2020

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...084640389.html

I've been cautioning everyone that I know that the development of a safe and effective vaccine is a challenge and very much an uncertainty and that if could be a long, long time before such is accomplished. Been seeing a lot of what I consider optimism in this regard that just isn't warranted based on past development history.

Vaccines are “long shots” and the public should not rely on the swift development of one for COVID-19, the government’s chief scientific adviser has warned.
Vallance’s warning came as Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at Oxford University, said her team hopes to begin clinical trials towards the end of next week.
She acknowledged nobody can be “completely certain” that it is possible to find a vaccine for COVID-19, but the prospects are “very good”.
And she said that alongside these trials, preparations need to be made to manufacture a successful vaccine in large amounts.
Vallance’s warning came as Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at Oxford University, said her team hopes to begin clinical trials towards the end of next week.

These start with immunising healthy 18- to 55-year-olds, before moving into older age groups, looking at the safety and immune response to the vaccine.
Half of all the trial volunteers will get the new coronavirus vaccine and the other half will get a vaccine licensed to protect against meningitis. Volunteers will not know what they are given, she said.
Scientists need to be able to demonstrate the vaccine works, and that is affected by how much virus transmission there is at the time testing is happening.
Prof Gilbert also said her team has gone through stages of vaccine development that usually take five years in just four months.
Sir Jeremy Farrar, a member of the government’s Sage scientific advisory group, said he was “optimistic” about finding a vaccine but that finding a safe and effective treatment for the latest strain was “not a given”.
Farrar told Sky News’s Sophy Ridge On Sunday: “I hope we would have a vaccine towards the end of this year – but that’s a vaccine in a vial, it’s a vaccine that we believe to be safe, a vaccine we think might be effective.
“I think it’s crucial to realise having a vaccine in itself, in, say, a million doses, which you know to be safe and you believe to be effective, that is not the end game.
A group of Oxford University researchers will begin clinical trials for a coronavirus vaccine next week but Sir Patrick Vallance says expectations need to be tempered.
Writing in The Guardian, Vallance said he was hopeful a vaccine would be developed, but warned it would not be available any time soon. “All new vaccines that come into development are long shots; only some end up being successful, and the whole process requires experimentation,” he wrote.
“Coronavirus will be no different and presents new challenges for vaccine development. This will take time, and we should be clear it is not a certainty.”
“The end game is making sure that it is truly effective. It’s effective in the elderly, effective in young children, effective right across the age group in all populations.
“And then you have to manufacture that in billions of doses to administer them to the world.”
Meanwhile, Vallance has been put in charge of a government taskforce to support efforts to rapidly develop a vaccine as soon as possible.
As well as providing industry and research institutions with the resources and support, the group will review regulations to allow quick and safe vaccine trials.

[tp12]

Originally Posted by delmarrey

So take it from Australia......

https://youtu.be/nJHQ_qre5FE



.

This isn't 'from Australia'. It's from Rupert Murdoch, via his henchmen.



Rupert is an American citizen, by the way.

[fivecapes]

Originally Posted by hpeer

That’s interesting. I’ve been looking at the numbers every day or two and had not noted Belgium creeping up. And the stat sites show them with a 11 doubling rate (relatively slow) and a decreasing death rate.

So that really surprises me.

From latest CFR (clinical) analysis.

That should flatten out soon as their critical rate drops and their most vulnerable/weekest unfortunately die first. Note that their recovery rate is peaking instead of rising.

cf Germany

Source data www.worldometers.info/coronavirus