corona virus alerts - Latest cruising Information for vessels/locations/rules

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by rbk

we are much further ahead on this new virus with what we’ve learned from SARS and MERS, although it may not feel like it. While different there are many similarities. It’s really too bad funding for these dropped off as the viruses disappeared. There is a good chance that if a vaccine had been developed for either it would be a shorter road toward one for covid.

There seems to be considerable scientific/medical interest, in the subject:

LitCovid says 1,608 papers, on Covid-19, were published last week alone (April 13 - 19).
LitCovid is a curated literature hub, for tracking up-to-date scientific information, about the 2019 novel Coronavirus. It is the most comprehensive resource on the subject, providing a central access to 5996 (and growing) relevant articles in PubMed.
LitCovid ➥ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/

[Montanan]

'A disaster': Roche CEO's verdict on some COVID-19 antibody tests
By John Miller
ReutersApril 21, 2020

http://https://www.yahoo.com/finance...053813777.html

IMO, Pretty much a total failure as to testing development and regulation in the USA from the start and continuing today. There has been a serious and protracted shortage of virus tests in Montana with less than 1 percent of the population tested to date. Now, I believe there are more than 140 antibody tests being marketed in the USA of which 4 or 5 have been certified and there is a shortage of those, by way of example, the CDC sent Montana this week 14 of Abbott's fast antibody test machines but with testing supplies for only being able to perform 600 tests in total.

Some blood tests being marketed to tell people if they have had the new coronavirus are a "disaster", Roche <ROG.S> Chief Executive Severin Schwan said on Wednesday as he prepares to launch the drugmaker's own antibody test next month.

Roche's diagnostics business has moved out of the shadow of its main medicines unit during the pandemic, as the Swiss pharma giant confirmed its 2020 sales and profit outlook amid rising demand for COVID-19 testing.

Countries around the world hope such blood tests - meant to show whether people exposed to the disease have developed antibodies thought to offer some immunity - will guide efforts to restart their economies and keep healthcare workers safe.

An erroneous false-positive result could lead to the mistaken conclusion that someone has immunity. In developing its test, Schwan said, Roche scrutinised some existing products for reliability before rejecting them.

"It's a disaster. These tests are not worth anything, or have very little use," Schwan told reporters on a conference call. "Some of these companies, I tell you, this is ethically very questionable to get out with this stuff."

Schwan said there were about 100 such tests on offer, including finger-prick assays that offer a quick result. The Basel-based company declined to specify which rival tests it had studied, but said it was not referring to tests from established testing companies.

Roche also makes separate tests to determine if a person has an active coronavirus infection, with a sample taken via a swab from nasal passages.

Sales of those tests helped push first-quarter sales in its Molecular Diagnostics business up 29% in the first three months of the year, it said.

AMATEURS IN GARAGES

By contrast, Roche's planned antibody test relies on intravenous blood draws taken by a nurse or a doctor.

Schwan did not release figures for its test's "specificity", or how many false-positives can be expected, but promised it would be reliable because Roche had successfully found the antibody produced by the body after exposure to the novel virus.

"This is really what matters," he said. "Every kind of amateur could produce an antibody test. The two of us could do it overnight in the garage. That's not the problem."

"The question is, does it really work? And for that, you have to do testing and validation," he added.

Abbott Laboratories also said last week it would begin shipping a new coronavirus blood test similar to Roche's by June. Like Roche's test, Abbott's assay would be launched under the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's recently relaxed rules for coronavirus tests.

Roche confirmed its existing 2020 forecast for sales to grow in the low-to-mid single-digit percentage range, with core earnings growth per share matching that, after first-quarter sales rose 7% to 15.1 billion Swiss francs ($15.57 billion).

While most of Roche's coronavirus activity has been focused on testing, it is also studying if its older arthritis drug Actemra will help critically ill patients hit by severe immune system reactions, also called cytokine storms. The medicine has already been deployed for such cases on a limited basis, including in China.

[Montanan]

Chances of vaccine within year 'incredibly small'


Today's UK Covid-19 briefing. There was a question about whether UK citizens would be the first to receive a successful vaccine developed in the country. You might remember that a human trial is beginning in the UK this week.

Prof Chris Whitty, the UK government’s chief medical adviser, said the matter was a "commercial question".

But he said the UK would want to get any vaccine, whether it is developed in the UK or overseas, "as fast as we can".

He cautioned, though, that the chances of a vaccine or "highly effective" drug treatments arriving within a calendar year were "incredibly small".

http://https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52377357

[Montanan]

Have we passed the peak?

Robert Cuffe

BBC head of statistics
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52377357

In the UK there have been 18,100 deaths from coronavirus in hospital, and a daily death toll of 759, according to figures from the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC).

The pattern in these data is one of gradual, bumpy decline from a peak of 980 deaths reported in one day, on April 10th.

The peaks and troughs are exacerbated by reporting lags, especially at weekends.

The picture of decline is further supported by NHS England’s analysis of deaths on the day they actually occur – this shows a rise to a peak in the week before Easter and a gradual decline since then. Both the rise and fall are smoother than for the daily DHSC figures.

These figures are mainly for hospitals, and it is possible that the picture in the community or in care homes may follow a slightly different pattern. So we can’t yet say we’ve passed the peak without caveats.

Even when we can, the international pattern has not been one of rapid declines - as you can see in the chart below - but a gradual deceleration.

[Montanan]

Coronavirus: 'Disruptive' social distancing likely for rest of 2020, says UK government

James Morris Senior news reporter, Yahoo News UK
Yahoo News UK April 22, 2020,

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...170955660.html

“Disruptive” social distancing measures are likely be in place for the rest of 2020, the UK government's chief medical officer said. Prof Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, said on Wednesday that the measures will only be lifted if a COVID-19 vaccine has been found. The chances of that, he conceded, are “incredibly small”.

“In the long run, the exit from this is going to be one of two things, ideally.

“One of which is a highly effective vaccine… and/or highly effective drugs so people stop dying of this disease, even if they catch it.

“Until we have those – and the probability of having those in the next calendar year are incredibly small – we are going to have to rely on other social measures, which of course are very socially disruptive as everyone is finding at the moment.

“Until that point, that is what we will have to do, and it will have to be the best combination that maximises the outlooks.” He added: “It’s going to take a long time and I think we need to aware of that.”

Current social distancing guidelines include avoiding gatherings with friends and family, not using public transport where possible, working from home where possible and avoiding small and large gatherings in public spaces.

End quote.


My note: When one does not have a pharmaceutical intervention available for a pandemic, [e.g., a safe and effective therapeutic or vaccine], one is left with just non-pharmaceutical intervention choices and practices.

[Sand crab]

Washington State has extended the state park closure to May 4. The parks have been closed for 4 weeks and that is unfortunate because this time of the year most are pretty empty. Some are on islands in the Puget Sound and you can only get there by boat. I kayaked to a little park/island 2 days ago so I was violating the rules but I knew the it was totally primitive and as usual we were the only ones there. It was great! The problem is over by Seattle which has a population of over 3 million (in the metro area) so parks can get quite busy. They ruined it for the rest of us.

[Montanan]

Update:

99% of USS Theodore Roosevelt crewmembers have been tested for coronavirus, with 777 sailors testing positive. 4,196 sailors have moved ashore to Guam. Six sailors are in U.S. Naval Hospital Guam being treated for COVID19 symptoms, one has died from Covid-19.

[Montanan]

Monaco — the famous yachting destination on the French Riviera — has banned its millionaire residents from taking out their superyachts under coronavirus lockdown
Business Insider
kwarren@businessinsider.com (Katie Warren)
,Business Insider•April 22, 2020

Monaco, a tiny yet prosperous city-state on the French Riviera, is a global yachting destination.

Of its 38,000 residents, an estimated one-third are millionaires, and some of the biggest and most famous yachts in the world have docked at its glitzy Port Hercules. Each year, Monaco hosts the Monaco Yacht Show, an event that drew 30,000 yachting industry insiders, buyers, and $4.3 billion of superyachts in 2019. Yachts belonging to the likes of Wynn Resorts cofounder Steve Wynn and Russian billionaire Dmitry Pumpyansky have been spotted at port in Monaco in recent years.

But as Monaco, like the rest of the world, deals with the coronavirus pandemic, its wealthy residents have been mandated to stay in their homes except for essential activities — and cruising on a multimillion-dollar superyacht is not considered essential, even in Monaco.

[Montanan]

Gov. Cuomo says Bloomberg will fund a $10 million tri-state area contact tracing network with Johns Hopkins University
Business Insider
insider@insider.com (Jake Lahut)
,Business Insider•April 22, 2020

http://https://news.yahoo.com/gov-cu...165914673.html

During the governor's Wednesday morning daily coronavirus press briefing, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Michael Bloomberg will be stepping in to spend $10 million of his own money to form a COVID-19 testing and contact tracing network in conjunction with his alma mater, Johns Hopkins University.

The network will focus on the tri-state area — New York, New Jersey and Connecticut — surrounding New York City, Cuomo said.

Bloomberg will work with New York State and Hopkins to form what Cuomo described as an "army" of workers to go through the contacts of anyone who tests positive in addition to identifying and isolating those carrying the virus.

Like many states, New York is facing a budget calamity stemming from the pandemic.

Its current budget deficit of $6 billion could very well end up exceeding $10 billion, Cuomo and New York State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli have cautioned.

New York has already spent around $2.8 billion combatting the coronavirus, according to Budget Director Robert Mujica.

[Waveguide]

Originally Posted by Montanan

[B][SIZE="3"]
The other discouraging word is that the projected U.S. death toll through Aug. 4 has been raised, from 60,308 to 65,976. There’s a wide interval of uncertainty to that figure: The institute says it could end up as low as 45,375 or as high as 124,120.

We've already surpassed the low-end of that estimate. As of 3:00 PM PDT, the US death toll is 47,139.

I feel their estimate in the 60,000 range by August 4th is low. My pocket calculator, tracking the slope of the curve, shows us hitting that number in about 10 days (early May).

[Waveguide]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Hindsight will be about 2020.

Obesity is reported as the most important factor causing mortality.

[Waveguide]

The states that are now lifting restrictions are taking off their parachute before they land.

The 8 states that didn't implement restrictions have jumped with a parachute.

[Sand crab]

Originally Posted by Sand crab

Today April 20th there are 755,533 case in the US with 40,461 deaths.
The world has 2,394,278 cases with 164,937 deaths.


1 week ago the US had 21,936 deaths.
2 weeks ago the US had 9,534 deaths.
3 weeks ago the US had 2431 deaths.
4 weeks ago the US had 408 deaths.
5 weeks ago the US had 62 deaths.
6 weeks ago the US had 21 deaths
7 weeks ago the US had 2 deaths.

7 weeks and 2 days ago the US had 0 deaths

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeli..._United_States

Today is April 22
The US has 840,340 cases with 46,497 deaths.
The world has 2,672,223 cases with 182,903 deaths.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[Waveguide]

For tracking spread (effective reproduction rate) in US states, this looks like a good tool: https://rt.live/

Nebraska, Iowa and Arkansas are doing the worst -- states that did not implement stay-at-home orders.

Any number over 1.0 means the virus is still spreading.

[Montanan]

https://abcnews.go.com/Lifestyle/wir..._headlines_hed

Oh, great now there will become a PPE shortage at the veterinarians. Lions, and Tigers, and Cats, Oh My!


Two pet cats in New York state have tested positive for the coronavirus, marking the first confirmed cases in companion animals in the United States, federal officials said Wednesday.

The cats, which had mild respiratory illnesses and are expected to recover, are thought to have contracted the virus from people in their households or neighborhoods, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

The finding, which comes after positive tests in some tigers and lions at the Bronx Zoo, adds to a small number of confirmed cases of the virus in animals worldwide. U.S. authorities say that while it appears some animals can get the virus from people, there’s no indication pets are transmitting it to human beings.

“We don’t want people to panic. We don’t want people to be afraid of pets” or to rush to test them en masse, said Dr. Casey Barton Behravesh, a CDC official who works on human-animal health connections. “There’s no evidence that pets are playing a role in spreading this disease to people.”

Yeah, but then there is this advice:

Still, the CDC is recommending that people prevent their pets from interacting with people or animals outside their homes -- by keeping cats indoors and dogs out of dog parks, for instance.

Coronavirus testing for pets isn’t recommended unless an animal has been exposed to a person with COVID-19 and the animal has symptoms of the disease — and tests have ruled out more common possible causes, said Dr. Jane Rooney of the USDA. Veterinarians who think testing is warranted are supposed to contact state officials to decide.

Barton Behravesh said the animal tests are done at veterinary labs and use different chemicals than human tests, which have been in short supply during the crisis.

The American Veterinary Medical Association says pets can stay in homes where a person has COVID-19, so long as the animal can be cared for.

“In this emergency, pets and people each need the support of the other,” the group said in a statement Wednesday.

For most people, the coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as a fever and cough that clear up in two to three weeks. For some, especially older adults and people, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia, and can be fatal.

Scientists studying the virus have been looking closely at links between human and animals. While a consensus is still evolving, the leading theory is that infection among humans began at an animal market in China, probably from an animal that got the virus from a bat. Or maybe it was the otherway around, humans gave it to animals. Just saying.

Scientists are working to understand the potential for transmission to animals in homes, farms and elsewhere. So far, it doesn't appear that livestock or poultry are susceptible, Rooney said. Well with 2.5 million cattle in Montana and only 1 million people, I'm hoping the livestock aren't susceptible or contagious. But again they don't know so they are testing for that potentiality.

The two cats live in different parts of the state; the USDA and CDC wouldn’t say where specifically.

The first cat fell ill about a week after a person in its household had a short respiratory illness, though the person's ailment wasn’t confirmed to be COVID-19, Barton Behravesh said. The animal goes outdoors at times and might have come into contact with an infected person in the area, she said.

The second cat’s owner tested positive for COVID-19 before the cat became sick, officials said. Another cat in the same home hasn’t shown any signs of illness.

The cats' symptoms included coughing and slightly runny noses, officials said.

The agencies have recommended that any pet owners with COVID-19 avoid petting, snuggling or other contact with their animals as much as possible, including wearing a face covering while caring for them.

There have been a handful of reports outside the U.S. of pet dogs or cats becoming infected after close contact with contagious people, including a Hong Kong dog that tested positive for a low level of the pathogen in February and early March. Hong Kong agriculture authorities concluded that pet dogs and cats couldn’t pass the virus to human beings but could test positive if exposed by their owners.

A tiger at the Bronx Zoo had what was believed to be the first confirmed coronavirus case in an animal in the U.S. or a tiger anywhere. The 4-year-old Malayan tiger, named Nadia, was tested after starting to showing signs of illness on March 27, 11 days after the zoo closed to the public because of the virus.

Three other tigers and three lions later showed symptoms. Tests subsequently confirmed they all had the virus, as did another tiger that shares their exhibit but didn't show any signs of illness, the zoo said Wednesday.

All the affected cats are doing well, with good appetites and much less coughing, the zoo said.

Zoo officials said they believe the animals were exposed by a keeper who had the virus but wasn't showing symptoms at the time. Staffers who work with the cats have since started wearing infection-protection garb.

Update: This evening.

More animals test positive at Bronx Zoo

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/coronaviru...opstories.html
Four more tigers and three lions have tested positive for COVID-19 at the Bronx Zoo in New York City, according to a statement from the zoo.

In early April, the zoo reported a tiger named Nadia had tested positive, making it the first animal at the zoo to be diagnosed. At the time, three other tigers and three other lions were also showing symptoms, according to the zoo.

Subsequent testing confirmed those six cats, plus another tiger who had been coughing, were positive for the virus.

None of the zoo’s snow leopards, cheetahs, clouded leopard, Amur leopard, puma or serval are showing any signs of illness, the zoo said. It is believed that the cats were infected by a staff member who was asymptomatic with the virus or before that person developed symptoms.

The zoo said all the cats who have tested positive are doing better and their coughing has subsided.