Covid vaccination status for CF members

[jtsailjt]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

The worker aid programs have a cut-off date. The US has had a low-wage problem since well before the pandemic, and it still needs to be addressed.


Retirements are usually funded on investments and the equity in increasing assets (like one's home), which should somewhat track inflation. A retirement fund that doesn't track that is a lousy fund. The current low interest "holiday" isn't a forever thing; inflation is a given. Again, a problem that's existed well before COVID.


I said previously that walking is simply falling forward, but well-controlled . I believe that economic policy on the national and global scale is becoming more and more a management issue, and less dependent on some antique concepts like the gold standard. And likely to become more so in future.

Question: when there's a national debt, who holds it? Who exactly needs to be "paid back"?

We had a booming economy with the lowest unemployment rate in recent history before the pandemic. If the US has a low wage problem then why are immigrants flooding imho the US? By bringing this up I assume you’re referring to minimum wage? In 1973 I was making $1.65/hour, equivalent to $10.11 today. But I was a hard worker and my bosses didn’t want me to quit so even though I was just a high school student I was soon making $2.10/hour. Minimum wage jobs are entry level positions that are very temporary if you work hard and prove your value to your boss because once he knows you’re a hard worker it’s cheaper for him to give you a raise than to train a replacement who may or may not work out.

Retirements may “usually” be based on investments but mine is a fixed amount that I’ll get whether inflation goes up or not. Lots of others in same situation. If you think that the value of a retired persons home going up is generally seen as a good thing you need to get out there and talk to some old timers. The reason is that they probably are happy where they are and have no intention of selling. Plus, as inflation drives up the value of their house, their real estate tax bill goes up too. Ask Venezuelans how they felt about using inflation to help the government pay off debts!

Gold standard or monetary policy, neither changes the fact that greater debt is a greater drag on the economy, making it harder for individuals to get ahead as a greater share of their ever increasing tax bill goes to paying the interest on that debt rather than for useful services or actual infrastructure improvements.

National debts, just like any other debt must be paid back to the banks, investors, or foreign governments that hold that debt. Typically, we just borrow even more money to pay off old debts (constantly refinancing) and pay interest on the new, larger amount. It’s like being in a bathtub of warm water with a fire built under it. You don’t notice the temperature gradually increasing until you suddenly realize it’s almost boiling and you can’t stand it anymore. Every time we borrow more it’s like somebody throwing just one more log on that fire. Eventually, we’ll be paying our whole GDP just to pay the interest owed on past borrowing, leaving no money to do things like eating or building a house, etc.

[rslifkin]

Originally Posted by jtsailjt

If the US has a low wage problem then why are immigrants flooding imho the US?

That's pretty meaningless. Just because some other places are even worse in terms of wages vs cost of living and opportunities doesn't mean that we don't have a problem.

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Question: when there's a national debt, who holds it? Who exactly needs to be "paid back"?

Lake, that is a question without a blanket answer. A significant part of the US and Canadian debt is held by citizens of those countries so it is popular to say that the repayment of these debts and interest is not harmful. Certainly it is far less harmful than repaying foreign creditors in economic terms. Some of the domestic creditors are using the repayment as some of their retirement strategy you were talking about as well.

If one expects to be able to borrow tomorrow at reasonable costs all the creditors will need to be paid back.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by jtsailjt

If the US has a low wage problem then why are immigrants flooding imho the US?

...because US employers like desperate low-wage immigrant labour. It keeps all low-skilled wages low. Circular problem.

If people could raise a family on one low-wage job in the 50's, but two low-wage parents today can't... there's a wage problem.

Retirements may “usually” be based on investments but mine is a fixed amount that I’ll get whether inflation goes up or not.

Seriously? Why haven't you (or the plan managers) invested it?

National debts, just like any other debt must be paid back to the banks, investors, or foreign governments that hold that debt. Typically, we just borrow even more money to pay off old debts (constantly refinancing) and pay interest on the new, larger amount. It’s like being in a bathtub of warm water with a fire built under it. You don’t notice the temperature gradually increasing until you suddenly realize it’s almost boiling and you can’t stand it anymore. Every time we borrow more it’s like somebody throwing just one more log on that fire. Eventually, we’ll be paying our whole GDP just to pay the interest owed on past borrowing, leaving no money to do things like eating or building a house, etc.

You're not wrong... but a global pandemic isn't the time to be worried about incurring debt. I'm not able to prove this myself, but it's my understanding that the speed and extent of the economic responses to COVID and related closures wll turn out to be cheaper overall than just letting it rip. With the desirable side effect of preventing multiple millions more deaths and disabilities.

The world is now smaller and more interconnected. The major economies are like a ring full of naked wrestlers each holding tight to another wrestler's junk. Horrible visual, I know.

If we all owe each other...

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by danstanford

If one expects to be able to borrow tomorrow at reasonable costs all the creditors will need to be paid back.

If I owe the bank one million, the bank owns me. If I owe the bank 400 million, I own the bank.

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

If I owe the bank one million, the bank owns me. If I owe the bank 400 million, I own the bank.

I saw the winky face.

Anyone really interested in how this can play out just needs to look at Greece. Their ability to borrow and the increased costs were both impacted by their inability to repay their creditors. I had a young poli-sci grad announce that not one benefit was to be gained by their enforced austerity measures a few years ago. What was missing from that analysis was any macro look at their future instead of the micro look at the suffering.

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-t...crisis-3305525

I have not attempted to quantify the situation the Greeks faced against ours but this would be on our trajectory.

[danstanford]

Financial Post article snip on risks of investing in Canada including the risk of higher taxes and inflation to support the dollar.

We recommend reducing exposure to Canadian dollar denominated assets including Canadian equities exposed to the domestic economy, government debt and yes, even real estate. Simply ask yourself what happens if the Bank of Canada has no choice but to raise interest rates to support a falling Canadian dollar?

This would be catastrophic for the federal government, making it costlier to service the massive debt load it is onboarding, but even worse for Canadian households, which are the most indebted in the developed world on a debt-to-GDP level.

[kenbo]

Originally Posted by danstanford

I saw the winky face.

Anyone really interested in how this can play out just needs to look at Greece. Their ability to borrow and the increased costs were both impacted by their inability to repay their creditors. I had a young poli-sci grad announce that not one benefit was to be gained by their enforced austerity measures a few years ago. What was missing from that analysis was any macro look at their future instead of the micro look at the suffering.

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-t...crisis-3305525

I have not attempted to quantify the situation the Greeks faced against ours but this would be on our trajectory.

I don't think Canada and Greece are comparable in this case. I say that because Greece as part of the EU had no financial or monetary leeway. They were boxed in by the EU rules on debt limits and couldn't control their own currency. I have always thought that the Greek government became a little too comfortable borrowing on essentially Germany's credit rating. Greece would have never borrowed so much if they were borrowing on their individual, sovereign credit rating.

Canada on the other hand has more tools.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by kenbo

I don't think Canada and Greece are comparable in this case. I say that because Greece as part of the EU had no financial or monetary leeway. They were boxed in by the EU rules on debt limits and couldn't control their own currency. I have always thought that the Greek government became a little too comfortable borrowing on essentially Germany's credit rating. Greece would have never borrowed so much if they were borrowing on their individual, sovereign credit rating.

Canada on the other hand has more tools.

And there are other significant structural differences as well. So it's not that useful a comparison.

[Lake-Effect]

and if anyone is in any doubt that most of the anti-COVID-vax BS is just exploitation of a wedge issue for political gain, or simply for attention... a clear example.

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Yes, we did go over this, and once again you conveniently ignore the findings that while asymptomatic folk are found to have a low risk of transmission, PRE-symptomatic folks have a high risk -- the highest in some studies.

Asymptomatic and PRE-symptomatic present the same, so you advise is useless in the real world.

If one can not discriminate between asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic in those that are unvaccinated, then the same issue likely exists with the vaccinated as they still can and do get sick, albeit seemingly with fewer deaths.

Again, if you're going to focus on the greater risk of infection from pre-symptomatic unvaccinated people, then you need to show evidence that they are indeed more infectious than pre-symptomatic vaccinated folks who also can not be distinguished from the asymptomatic. This is just simple logic. Otherwise your campaign here to paint the unvaccinated as socially irresponsible is itself irresponsible.

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by danstanford

Financial Post article snip on risks of investing in Canada including the risk of higher taxes and inflation to support the dollar.

We recommend reducing exposure to Canadian dollar denominated assets including Canadian equities exposed to the domestic economy, government debt and yes, even real estate. Simply ask yourself what happens if the Bank of Canada has no choice but to raise interest rates to support a falling Canadian dollar?

This would be catastrophic for the federal government, making it costlier to service the massive debt load it is onboarding, but even worse for Canadian households, which are the most indebted in the developed world on a debt-to-GDP level.

Catastrophic? All depends on your perspective. As a non-resident Canadian
living in Europe, all of that.... higher bond yields, stronger CAD.... are music to my ears.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Greg K

...if you're going to focus on the greater risk of infection from pre-symptomatic unvaccinated people, then you need to show evidence that they are indeed more infectious than pre-symptomatic vaccinated folks who also can not be distinguished from the asymptomatic. This is just simple logic.

No, simple logic would be something like:

"If vaccination results in:

• less susceptibility to catching COVID
• less intensity of infection if caught
• shorter duration of illness if caught

... then vaccinated people pose less of an infection risk than unvaccinated people."

You're welcome.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Greg K

If one can not discriminate between asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic in those that are unvaccinated, then the same issue likely exists with the vaccinated as they still can and do get sick, albeit seemingly with fewer deaths.

Again, if you're going to focus on the greater risk of infection from pre-symptomatic unvaccinated people, then you need to show evidence that they are indeed more infectious than pre-symptomatic vaccinated folks who also can not be distinguished from the asymptomatic. This is just simple logic. Otherwise your campaign here to paint the unvaccinated as socially irresponsible is itself irresponsible.

Irrelevant (and illogical).

Vaccinated people are far less likely to get a case of Covid-19. So logically, there are far fewer vaccinated asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people with the disease.

But you do get to why the other public health measures are still needed, even with those who have been vaccinated. Until we get the R value down to firmly below 1 the pandemic will continue. Each unvaccinated* person makes the task a little bit harder. Vaccinated people are still at risk of catching and spreading the disease, albeit at a much lower rate than unvaccinated folks.

*Natural immunity is also useful.

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

No, simple logic would be something like:

"If vaccination results in:

• less susceptibility to catching COVID
• less intensity of infection if caught
• shorter duration of illness if caught

... then vaccinated people pose less of an infection risk than unvaccinated people."

You're welcome.

The severity of infection and, presumably, the infectiousness of individuals depends on the ability of the immune system to cope with the viral load. Unvaccinated people who are asymptomatic or who have only a mild form of the disease (which by far is the majority of cases), obviously have a sufficiently robust immune system to end up with the same outcomes you have noted above.

There is no reason to think that they would be any more infectious than the vaccinated.