Covid vaccination status for CF members

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by ahun

People wearing masks, accepting curfew and lockdowns more than a year now. And now there's vaccination.
Surprise, surprise the case numbers grow again. Hmm. Something doesn't add up.

Where?

US & UK cases are down by over 75% in the last month and death rates are following closely. Among the larger population countries, these are the two leaders in vaccination...though that is only now reaching numbers likely to have a substantial impact.

I see you are from Australia...My understanding is the numbers are lower which allows static in the data to make patterns difficult to see and the vaccination program is at such an early stage as to have almost no impact on the current numbers.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by bensolomon

I truly feel your pain. I am a pulmonary and critical care physician in philadelphia, Pennsylvania in the United states. I have lost 70% of the patients that came into my intensive Care unit with covid-19. Many of them were 35 to 50 years old. None of them had comorbidities. This is the reality of this disease.

I don't want to say you are wrong and the disease is real but this is completely inconsistent with the data that I've read on the subject.

While there are stray cases of a young healthy individual dying, it's literally orders of magnitude lower risk compared to elderly and/or those with comorbidities, so I'm a bit shocked that you are getting a large percentage of deaths among healthy 35-50yr olds. I would think by this point we would be seeing tons of data driven reports documenting the risk to young and healthy backed by statistics. To date, I haven't come across anything like what you describe.

A little less extreme but 70% death rate seems high for even for ICU. The data I've found suggest even most hospitalized patients do recover. Is there something more that explains the higher rate?

See below from CDC on the subject and this is pretty consistent across most sources I've found:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...th-by-age.html

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Outragious. and now tell me how many people died worldwide without covid.

My estimate on 7.8 billion people and an average live expectancy of 60 years is about 130 million deaths world wide, 2.6 million are more or less 2%, so 98% died without covid, and in a fair world that should concern us 50 times more than covid, because only 1 in 50 deaths is with or on covid.

No more relevant to my point than how many people died on Mars from desert fever.

These are 520,000 Americans or 2,600,000 people world wide that died from Covid that would not have died when they died. Yes of course many of them were elderly or in poor health and would have died sooner or later anyway but they died sooner and died from Covid. And don't even try to play the game that the statistics are padded. I know too many friends and family that are in health care and know better.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by ahun

People wearing masks, accepting curfew and lockdowns more than a year now. And now there's vaccination.
Surprise, surprise the case numbers grow again. Hmm. Something doesn't add up.

There was a big surge in cases Jan-Feb... surprise. Right after a giant surge in holiday travel and parties. Now that is ending cases are dropping dramatically in the US.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by bensolomon

Cliveon and midnight son,

I truly feel your pain. I am a pulmonary and critical care physician in philadelphia, Pennsylvania in the United states. I have lost 70% of the patients that came into my intensive Care unit with covid-19. Many of them were 35 to 50 years old. None of them had comorbidities. This is the reality of this disease.

All of that said, interpretation of data and the written word is heterogeneous. People may not come to similar conclusions although they read or look at the same study, article, or data. You will not convert someone's way of thinking. Thinking that it is possible to do so, and then failing at that task will lead to further frustrations.

The entire world is in this together, and people are going to respond differently. All you can do is wear your mask, get vaccinated, and take all of the appropriate precautions for yourselves, while remaining unattached to what others are doing. This is the only way to manage your energy.

As I said earlier, I appreciate your frustrations. I am very upset when a patient comes into the ICU because they chose to go to a restaurant, or a dinner party or a celebration which results in their death. However we must refrain from denigrating one another by the use of terms like idiot, stupid, etc, which furthers the divide between us.

I am very sorry for your losses. I truly feel your pain. Stay safe, protect yourselves and your families and let go of what others do for your own health and stress levels.

Kindest regards,
Ben

Ben, Thanks for the comments. It is good to get a reminder occasionally that anger and insults lead to nothing more than more anger and insults.

I have found myself falling into that trap more than a few times but keep reminding myself that it is pointless. On the other hand, I have also found that no amount of polite discussion, logic, evidence or science makes any difference at all in Covid and similar disagreements. It is extremely frustrating to try to convince someone of the reality of Covid, the benefit of wearing masks, social distancing, etc and have it all dismissed as fake news or an infringement on my freedom.

Recent posts have asked why cases are not dropping when there are safety protocols in place. Well for one, because in many places they are not followed. In parts of Florida if you wear a mask into a store you will be the only one doing so and treated like some kind of wacko paranoid. I experienced the same in PA, NC, GA and other places I stopped when I drove back to FL from MA a few months back.

Masks only work when you wear them. Also, I have read recent research that indicates the nose might also connected to the lungs so wearing a mask under the nose might not be the best method.

[bensolomon]

Valhalla,

You are partially correct. The percentage of death in 35-50 year olds is less than that of 65-80 year olds. The point is that healthy, young people die from covid, even those without comorbidities. The thing about comorbidities is that because peole haven't diagnosed with a particular disease state, does not mean they don't have disease. For example, when the covid patient shows up with hypertension and blood sugars in the 300's, they are in fact hypertensive and diabetic. The lack of a diagnosis doesn't negate disease.

I appreciate your reading and looking at data. I do not exaggerate my experience. There are regional differences in diseases, disease severity, incidence and prevalence. Although averages may look a particular way, some areas will be harder hit, and different populations will be affected worse and vice versa, therefore "averaging out." I assure you the average death rates and ages on the CDC website are of no comfort to the families of those that have lost loved ones due to covid-19 from my experience over the past year treating these patients.

In our ICU, we have had a mortality of 70%. With this third wave, we have used more medical countermeasures on the FDA EUA list to try to chip away at ICU mortality. We have had some successes recently, but it still remains to be seen when the analyses are done and the study is published.

Kind regards,
Ben

[Midnight Son]

Originally Posted by skipmac

There was a big surge in cases Jan-Feb... surprise. Right after a giant surge in holiday travel and parties. Now that is ending cases are dropping dramatically in the US.

On top of that are the new more infectious variants, which are just now kicking in in North America. So, get vaccinated soon, then we can go back to beers in the back yard/cockpit with friends sooner.

[bensolomon]

Originally Posted by skipmac

Ben, Thanks for the comments. It is good to get a reminder occasionally that anger and insults lead to nothing more than more anger and insults.

I have found myself falling into that trap more than a few times but keep reminding myself that it is pointless. On the other hand, I have also found that no amount of polite discussion, logic, evidence or science makes any difference at all in Covid and similar disagreements. It is extremely frustrating to try to convince someone of the reality of Covid, the benefit of wearing masks, social distancing, etc and have it all dismissed as fake news or an infringement on my freedom.

Recent posts have asked why cases are not dropping when there are safety protocols in place. Well for one, because in many places they are not followed. In parts of Florida if you wear a mask into a store you will be the only one doing so and treated like some kind of wacko paranoid. I experienced the same in PA, NC, GA and other places I stopped when I drove back to FL from MA a few months back.

Masks only work when you wear them. Also, I have read recent research that indicates the nose might also connected to the lungs so wearing a mask under the nose might not be the best method.

Skipmac,

Thanks for the comments. Your research regarding the nose being connected to the lungs is correct.

Ben

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by bensolomon

Valhalla,

You are partially correct. The percentage of death in 35-50 year olds is less than that of 65-80 year olds. The point is that healthy, young people die from covid, even those without comorbidities. The thing about comorbidities is that because peole haven't diagnosed with a particular disease state, does not mean they don't have disease. For example, when the covid patient shows up with hypertension and blood sugars in the 300's, they are in fact hypertensive and diabetic. The lack of a diagnosis doesn't negate disease.

Would you care to hazard an estimate of the percentage of 35-50yr with "no known" comorbidities (sorry, I was responding in a more conversational tone and didn't clarify the technical aspects)?

While I don't question that some healthy young people (35-50) do die from the virus, your original post implied it was a large percentage of the deaths. Everything I've read suggests that it's likely in the low single digits (or less) in terms of percentage of total deaths related to the virus. I've had a hard time finding combined statistics. Most sites list age or comorbidity but don't do a good job setting it up as an overlapping array.

Understood... that lack of a diagnosis doesn't mean they aren't afflicted by a comorbidity...but that only further supports the idea that your original post could be viewed as misleading. If someone obviously is diabetic but there is no official diagnosis...I would consider that a mis-catagorized death as opposed to an otherwise healthy individual who died. If this represents a large percentage of the young "apparently healthy" deaths, there should be someone studying it, so we can more effectively target those likely to be impacted via vaccines and other countermeasures.

While every death matters, when looking at the big picture, the exception does not make the rule. It's the scale of cases, hospitalizations and deaths that is driving the massive countermeasure programs...the more we know, the quicker we can control it and end the collateral damage from these countermeasures.

[bensolomon]

Valhalla,

The characterization of the patient populations:

10-15% of the patient population that I serve who have died from covid were in the 35 to 50 year old bracket.

About half of the patients that I treated that died did not have medical comorbidities prior to getting covid.

I agree with you, that when all deaths and conditions are evaluated, certain subgroups become smaller or larger. It just so happens that my experience, in my region, has not been a middle of the road experience.

Respectfully,
Ben

[GordMay]

The US Centers for Disease Control released it’s guidelines [recommended do's and don'ts], for people who have been fully vaccinated, yesterday.

“When You’ve Been Fully Vaccinated” ~ CDC
How to Protect Yourself and Others
➥ https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...accinated.html

[GordMay]

Pfizer's and Moderna's COVID-19 shots could be far less effective against the B.1.351 variant, first found in South Africa

COVID-19 vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech appear significantly less effective against the coronavirus variant first found in South Africa, a lab study [1] has suggested. The percentage of protective antibodies that neutralized the variant [B.1.351], was 12.4 times lower for Moderna's COVID-19 shot, than against the original coronavirus, and 10.3 times lower for Pfizer's.
They said that one specific mutation, E484K, appeared to be a "major contributor" to the B.1.351 variant's ability to evade the antibody response. E484K is not usually present in B.1.1.7, the variant first found in the UK.
The researchers found that the antibody activity from both vaccines was "essentially unchanged" against the variant first found in the UK, B.1.1.7.
Both companies said, in January, they were developing booster shots, specifically to tackle the S.A. B.1.351 variant.
The COVID-19 vaccine from Johnson & Johnson was less effective in the clinical trials that took place in South Africa.

[1] “Antibody Resistance of SARS-CoV-2 Variants B.1.351 and B.1.1.7" ~ by Pengfei Wang et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s415..._reference.pdf

[UFO]

Originally Posted by bensolomon

Valhalla,
In our ICU, we have had a mortality of 70%. With this third wave, we have used more medical countermeasures on the FDA EUA list to try to chip away at ICU mortality. We have had some successes recently, but it still remains to be seen when the analyses are done and the study is published.

Kind regards,
Ben

Sorry but 70% mortality is HUGE and well beyond any data that we are seeing presented ANYWHERE on the planet!!!!!. You must be in an area of extremely old age, chronic prevalence of illness and poor diet beyond imagination.

[GordMay]

Since the start of the pandemic, the death rate for ICU patients has dropped from an average of 60 per cent, in early March, to 42 per cent by the end of May, according to one study [1], published in July, that reviewed more than 10,000 cases, from two dozen studies around the world.
Reported ICU mortality rates ranged from 0%, in small case series, to 84.6%.
There are a number of reasons why Covid-19 ICU patients suffer a higher mortality rate, than do "normal' ICU patients.

[1] “Outcomes From Intensive Care in Patients With COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies” ~ by R. A. Armstrong, A. D. Kane, & T. M. Cook
➥ https://associationofanaesthetists-p...111/anae.15201

[bensolomon]

Originally Posted by UFO

Sorry but 70% mortality is HUGE and well beyond any data that we are seeing presented ANYWHERE on the planet!!!!!. You must be in an area of extremely old age, chronic prevalence of illness and poor diet beyond imagination.

Critical Care patients are a specific subset of the Covid-19 cohort that have markedly deranged inflammation and reduction in immunity as evidenced by profound elevations in ferritin, crp, d-dimer, IL1, IL6, and severe leukopenia.

I appreciate that numbers from other places are different. We don't have ECMO, so there is no rescue for the refractory hypoxemia, and many studies look at 28 day mortality. For example, many of our patients have been on life support for two months before they die.

The sole intent of my posts is to give a window into real world experience caring for covid patients, and remind this wonderful comminity that survival is not guaranteed.

Kind regards,
Ben