Covid vaccination status for CF members

[Midnight Son]

Thank you Ben.
I also hope that nobody does anything foolish, at least, until ~32 after their first vaccine shot, would hate to lose friends/associates to a small social slip up.
Best wishes all.

[CatNewBee]

Originally Posted by skipmac

No more relevant to my point than how many people died on Mars from desert fever.

These are 520,000 Americans or 2,600,000 people world wide that died from Covid that would not have died when they died. Yes of course many of them were elderly or in poor health and would have died sooner or later anyway but they died sooner and died from Covid. And don't even try to play the game that the statistics are padded. I know too many friends and family that are in health care and know better.

Prove that. How dou you know they would be still alive?

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Prove that. How do you know they would be still alive?

Simple to prove by quantum superposition. Just listen to Schrödinger's cat's purr.

[sail sfbay]

Originally Posted by sailormed

...............Just out of curiosity, how many of the members of this forum are vaccinated? It seems that there is actually a huge campaign ongoing in the USA to get a maximum number of persons vaccinated.

My wife and I qualified (65+ year old) to get the vaccine in San Francisco, California a few weeks after you got yours. We received the first Pfizer shot on Feb 11 and second Pfizer shot on March 4. By March 14 we will achieve full immunity, which will allow us to safely resume sailing and power boating with our vaccinated friends without the risk of getting Covid symptoms.

You are correct there is a huge campaign ongoing in the USA to get a maximum number of persons vaccinated as soon as possible to achieve herd immunity as soon as possible and restore the economy and lifestyle to pre-Covid.

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

While not a good sign...it's not quite as bad as suggested. This was a lab test focused on antibodies.
- It still shows neutralizing antibody capacity, just at a lower level. What that likely means is a mild case if you get the variant. Your body already has a leg up as it's no longer "novel".
- This only considers antibodies. There are multiple avenues your body uses to fight off infections. So it could mean nothing if those other parts of the immune system.
- Finally, the vaccine manufacturers are already adapting their vaccines to accommodate new variants. Unlike the initial development and testing, these are expected to only take a couple of months to get to market.

So unwelcome but not that disturbing or unexpected.

I hope you're right, but early evidence seems to show the Brazilian P1 variant is worrisome. Brazil's ICU beds are at almost 100% capacity at the moment, and a good portion of the people in hospital are in the 35-50 age group. This is very different than it was with the original coronavirus that mainly hospitalized older people. Another disturbing bit of news is that people who were infected months ago in places like Manaus are getting reinfected with the new strain, often putting them in hospital. We are expecting the results of a study by the national health authority this week on whether the approved vaccines in Brazil protect against the new strain (the main vaccine being Coronavac). I really hope there is good news this week...

Ironically, Brazil should be leading the world in vaccines and vaccinations. The public health system has won international awards (UN, for one) for its vaccination campaigns and it has the capacity to vaccinate 10 million people a day, which it has done in other campaigns. Brazil is also a global vaccine R&D and production center. Sadly, like in a few other countries, the leader of the country has shrugged off the threat of the virus since the beginning, dismissing it as a "little flu".

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by CatNewBee

Prove that. How dou you know they would be still alive?

Very simple logic. The patient dies from Covid. Therefore if the patient had not contracted Covid he or she would not have died unless by coincidence another medical issue occurred simultaneously that the patient died from.

Yes if the patient was old, unwell or had other major medical issues then that patient might have died anyway in a similar time frame but that would be a very, very small fraction.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by skipmac

Very simple logic. The patient dies from Covid. Therefore if the patient had not contracted Covid he or she would not have died unless by coincidence another medical issue occurred simultaneously that the patient died from.

Yes if the patient was old, unwell or had other major medical issues then that patient might have died anyway in a similar time frame but that would be a very, very small fraction.

You do realise how many people die a day of one cause or another? It's rather a lot - over 100,000 per day, so if you have tested positive for Covid in the last 28 days or in some places longer then go on to die from whatever your natural cause was, you are now a covid statistic. Funnily enough though, if you have the vaccine and drop dead within a couple of days it has nothing to do with the vaccination - Double standards if you ask me.


PS Also the controversy around the accuracy of PCR testing for False Positives throws a different light on the situation as well.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by UFO

You do realise how many people die a day of one cause or another? It's rather a lot - over 100,000 per day, so if you have tested positive for Covid in the last 28 days or in some places longer then go on to die from whatever your natural cause was, you are now a covid statistic. Funnily enough though, if you have the vaccine and drop dead within a couple of days it has nothing to do with the vaccination - Double standards if you ask me.


PS Also the controversy around the accuracy of PCR testing for False Positives throws a different light on the situation as well.

Just let me clarify that for our American Friends - That was a worldwide figure of deaths per day, The States is around 7,500 Per day (still quite a lot).


For some reason the death rate per 1000 Pop in the USA has been going up since 2010 with the % increase in 2020 lower than the previous 5 years - Come to your own conclusions on that one.


https://knoema.com/atlas/United-Stat...ica/Death-rate

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by UFO

Just let me clarify that for our American Friends - That was a worldwide figure of deaths per day, The States is around 7,500 Per day (still quite a lot).


For some reason the death rate per 1000 Pop in the USA has been going up since 2010 with the % increase in 2020 lower than the previous 5 years - Come to your own conclusions on that one.


https://knoema.com/atlas/United-Stat...ica/Death-rate

The increase in the death rate is foremost due to the Baby Boomers aging out and that large demographic group are just old and dying.

There is also a shorter life expectancy, which has many causes but the most obvious is the tremendous degree of obesity in America which self inflicted harm results in loads of co-morbidity accelerations. America has become a nation of lard asses, it is truly a disgraceful sight which one cannot NOT notice whenever one is out and about. And Covid of course has accelerated daily deaths dramatically. America has had 525,000 Covid related deaths in the last year, by comparison, lung cancer which is the second highest cause of cancer deaths, kills about 135,000 Americans per year.

More than one-third of adults in the United States are obese.. Another 32.5 percent of American adults are overweight.
Obesity affects 1 in 6 children in the United States.. That’s more than 12.7 million American children. ...
Obesity is linked to more than 60 chronic diseases.. If you are overweight or obese, your risk for dozens of diseases...


I recall one of my Physical and Health Education teachers stating that as a first measure on one's health and fitness, that the inseam of your pants should be longer than one's waist measurement. Well d'Uh! Sadly that is not even close to the situation for most Americans who are afflicted with the dreaded Dunlap disease. Dunlap disease occurs when one's belly done laps, over one's belt.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Montanan

The increase in the death rate is foremost due to the Baby Boomers aging out and that large demographic group are just old and dying.

There is also a shorter life expectancy, which has many causes but the most obvious is the tremendous degree of obesity in America which self inflicted harm results in loads of co-morbidity accelerations. America has become a nation of lard asses, it is truly a disgraceful sight which one cannot NOT notice whenever one is out and about. And Covid of course has accelerated daily deaths dramatically. America has had 525,000 Covid related deaths in the last year, by comparison, lung cancer which is the second highest cause of cancer deaths, kills about 135,000 Americans per year.

More than one-third of adults in the United States are obese.. Another 32.5 percent of American adults are overweight.
Obesity affects 1 in 6 children in the United States.. That’s more than 12.7 million American children. ...
Obesity is linked to more than 60 chronic diseases.. If you are overweight or obese, your risk for dozens of diseases...


I recall one of my Physical and Health Education teachers stating that as a first measure on one's health and fitness, that the inseam of your pants should be longer than one's waist measurement. Well d'Uh! Sadly that is not even close to the situation for most Americans who are afflicted with the dreaded Dunlap disease. Dunlap disease occurs when one's belly done laps, over one's belt.

I guess The Fast Food, Processed Food and the Sugar industry have a lot to answer for - But its the choice of those who consume ultimately or maybe it's not? Is it possible that people really just do not understand? Maybe education is lacking in this area as its too profitable to educate otherwise? Seems like common sense to me though.

[Clivevon]

To BenSolomon: Point taken - but sometimes its hard... Thank you though for your comments ( & for your work - I know that tough would not adequately describe this past year for you & your colleagues all round the world).

"The increase in the death rate is foremost due to the Baby Boomers aging out and that large demographic group are just old and dying." Well, excuse me please. As one of the very oldest of the Baby Boomers (yes, I know, its all my fault) I ain't that old yet & (God willing) I ain't dying. So far so good...

My Welsh grandad was 6 foot, 19 stone, 90 years old & still in full possession of his faculties when my mother found him pushing his bike up the valley side. He was a bit embarrassed as he was off to visit his girlfriend (being long widowed).. I'm hoping for good genes.

[jtsailjt]

Originally Posted by Montanan

The increase in the death rate is foremost due to the Baby Boomers aging out and that large demographic group are just old and dying.

There is also a shorter life expectancy, which has many causes but the most obvious is the tremendous degree of obesity in America which self inflicted harm results in loads of co-morbidity accelerations. America has become a nation of lard asses, it is truly a disgraceful sight which one cannot NOT notice whenever one is out and about. And Covid of course has accelerated daily deaths dramatically. America has had 525,000 Covid related deaths in the last year, by comparison, lung cancer which is the second highest cause of cancer deaths, kills about 135,000 Americans per year.

More than one-third of adults in the United States are obese.. Another 32.5 percent of American adults are overweight.
Obesity affects 1 in 6 children in the United States.. That’s more than 12.7 million American children. ...
Obesity is linked to more than 60 chronic diseases.. If you are overweight or obese, your risk for dozens of diseases...


I recall one of my Physical and Health Education teachers stating that as a first measure on one's health and fitness, that the inseam of your pants should be longer than one's waist measurement. Well d'Uh! Sadly that is not even close to the situation for most Americans who are afflicted with the dreaded Dunlap disease. Dunlap disease occurs when one's belly done laps, over one's belt.

I think the waist less than inseam is a bit extreme but I do agree that obesity is a major problem in the US. My waist and inseam are about equal at 34, depending on which brand of jeans I’m wearing, but according to some tables, at 73” and 195# I’m on the verge of being considered ‘overweight’ despite having exercised my whole life and not ever even come close to having dunlaps disease. Just trying to point out that, while I agree with the overall theme, some of the overweight category boundaries and guidelines seem a bit arbitrary.

30 years ago. a good friend who’s an ER doc told me that literally about 90% of patients he saw had issues related to obesity, smoking, or alcohol overuse. Now, I assume he would probably add drug addiction. Almost all of those with health issues have made the choice to overeat, smoke, drink excessively, or inappropriately use drugs despite knowing it’s very bad for their health. If people stopped doing those 4 things, it would change everything about our healthcare system, including its overall cost to those of us who take better care of ourselves.

But perhaps “overeat” isn’t the right word because many people who can’t seem to control their weight aren’t constantly stuffing themselves with huge amounts of food. Rather, it’s what they are choosing to eat that’s most of the problem. Starting off the day with even a moderate portion of a high carb, sugary cereal or bagel or pastry and sweetened coffee gives them a little sugar high that makes them feel alert, but it soon wears off and by mid morning they “need” a little snack (usually carb based) and they end up spending all day on that roller coaster, subconsciously chasing a sugar high that began with breakfast. They see it as normal and inevitable because they have a lot of company and even if they go to the gym, they can’t seem to get rid of those extra pounds. Europeans seem to have much better breakfast habits that are less carb/sugar based and that sets the tone for their whole day and the result is that they are a lot less round.

As you point out above, being obese makes us vulnerable to all sorts of deadly diseases, Covid just one more on a very long list. I realize that some people in poverty don’t have access to healthier food, but the vast majority of Americans do, and yet they continue to regularly choose carb based foods, sugary drinks and sugary “healthy” fruit juices, and wonder why their waist size keeps increasing. Unfortunately I don’t see this trend reversing itself anytime soon because this sort of diet is so ingrained in our culture and many in the US see it as being normal to gain a few more pounds every year.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by bensolomon

Valhalla,

The characterization of the patient populations:

10-15% of the patient population that I serve who have died from covid were in the 35 to 50 year old bracket.

About half of the patients that I treated that died did not have medical comorbidities prior to getting covid.

I agree with you, that when all deaths and conditions are evaluated, certain subgroups become smaller or larger. It just so happens that my experience, in my region, has not been a middle of the road experience.

Respectfully,
Ben

So maybe 5% of the 35-50yr old patients with no known comorbidities who made it into your ICU died.

I'm guessing but probably a negligible number under 35...so by inference around 94-95% in the over 50 and/or with comorbidities.

That's a little high but not wildly inconsistent if you have an unusual patient profile.

I'm not suggesting you were purposely trying to mislead but partial information can often be misleading. When you factor this into per capita numbers (the elderly make up a smaller percentage of the population), you won't see healthy sub-50yr olds (as a group) as a major concern.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Copacabana

a good portion of the people in hospital are in the 35-50 age group.

This caught my eye. Do you have a link to the numbers? "A good portion" is a pretty nebulous number. It could be 1% or it could be 95%.

I did a little searching online and wasn't coming up with anything giving actual statistics for brazilian hospitalizations.

Also, being a generally younger country, that might be skewing the data in terms of percentage of cases.

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

This caught my eye. Do you have a link to the numbers? "A good portion" is a pretty nebulous number. It could be 1% or it could be 95%.

I did a little searching online and wasn't coming up with anything giving actual statistics for brazilian hospitalizations.

Also, being a generally younger country, that might be skewing the data in terms of percentage of cases.

I'll see if I can find something in English, but I've been getting this information on the news and in the papers here. I don't know the exact ratio of younger people. The media uses "good portion" to mean that the percentage is significantly higher this time due to the new variant. From one article:

"Before, ICU patients were elderly and with chronic diseases, which we call comorbidities. Today, it is 60% younger, aged 30 to 50, with no previous disease. And the time they stay in the ICU is longer. We used to have an average of 7 to 10 days of hospitalization, now it's at least 14 to 17 days of hospitalization in the ICU”

https://g1.globo.com/pr/campos-gerai...-49-anos.ghtml

https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/saude/2...s-por-covid-19

https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/equili...os-de-sp.shtml

A few reports in English on the current Covid surge:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odBotXvykX8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ic5LHWCVjys

The good news is that the Brazilian health authority has just announced that the Cornovac vaccine is effective against the P1 variant. It seems that others are too.

I should get a vaccine in July when they vaccinate the 29-59 age group, according to the schedule here. Which one remains to be seen, but I'm happy with any vaccine.