Covid vaccination status for CF members

[carlosproa]

If COVID was the latest attempt from nature to curb human population, it failed miserably. We are still steaming along to achieve 1.5 degree temperature mark quite soon. Most of us here might be dead by now and miss all the chaos that will be triggered, nevertheless we as a generation were very irresponsible

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by carlosproa

If COVID was the latest attempt from nature to curb human population, it failed miserably. We are still steaming along to achieve 1.5 degree temperature mark quite soon. Most of us here might be dead by now and miss all the chaos that will be triggered, nevertheless we as a generation were very irresponsible

It started long before us if you look back...
Pre-Industrial Revolution pollution was rampant in cities with garbage and chamber pots being tipped into streets, London smog was legendary.
All that's happened is we have refined our techniques for polluting the earth since 1760..
Greta is just trying to lay an ill informed guilt trip on her grandparents.. I notice she still uses the technology..

[jtsailjt]

Originally Posted by kmacdonald

Agreed. long term we could assume the efficacy of covid and variants vaccines will drop to 40%. The unknowns outnumber the knows at this point. What we do know is that some states with a high vaccinated population are still setting records for new cases.

We can assume or speculate about almost any number because we haven’t done this before so don’t know for sure. But right now the efficacy of the top vaccines is much, much higher. The flu vaccines are that low but others do much better. So, who knows?

Are you suggesting the high number of new cases has anything to do with the portion of the population thats been vaccinated? Because from what I’ve read, the infection rate amongst vaccinated people is very, very low. Isn it more likely that the high number of new cases in some areas is partially due to pandemic fatigue and the resulting relaxation of social distancing measures, especially among younger people? Where i live, after a long period of just about every public venue being closed down, bars and restaurants have been opened up for indoor dining again. Since quite a few folks have been vaccinated we feel that its safe enough to visit these places and have done so, something we couldn’t/wouldn’t do 3 months ago. Rather than limiting my grocery store visits to once every 2 weeks, I’m in there to pick up a few things almost every day, just like in pre-covid days. Its no surprise that lots of unvaccinated people also seem to want to join in and enjoy the increased freedom and feeling of a return to normalcy that occasionally dining out, etc. brings. But they are no more protected than we all were last fall when everything was shut down and everyone was social distancing in earnest. Since theres still a very significant percentage of the population who have not been vaccinated, and some recent variants are more easily spread than the original, unvaccinated people and those without natural immunity are seemingly passing around the virus amongst themselves at a very high rate.

But i guess the silver lining in this cloud is that between the ever increasing numbers of the vaccinated population and the increasing numbers of those who have gained some immunity to Covid by catching and surviving it, theoretically we should reach the point where there will be very few folks left for unvaccinated people to catch it from, assuming a vaccine resistant variant doesn’t become dominant before that occurs. Until then, its a combination of luck and survival of the fittest, except regarding Covid and its ability to randomly seriously harm or kill even the seemingly most fit, those two factors make it more like an all inclusive game of Russian Roulette but with the twist that those with preexisting conditions have even greater odds of losing compared with people with no preexisting conditions and those who have been vaccinated largely get to watch from the sidelines, at least until/if a vaccine resistant variant becomes common, then we’ll all be back in the game, like it or not.

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Thanks Gord. I've stopped responding to most of the inane comments. No point...

But on this question of asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread, the research is ongoing and the scientific understanding is continuing to evolve. Currently, the research is indicating a low to moderate risk of spread from asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 patients. But the same research is showing a significant risk of transmission from presymptomatic patients.

The researchers make the point that the challenge from a public health perspective is that asymptomatic and presymptomatic patients present the same.

Here's just a smattering of recent published research. As always, I support my statements with references to credible research.

Analysis of Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic Transmission in SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak, Germany, 2020
Abstract: We determined secondary attack rates (SAR) among close contacts of 59 asymptomatic and symptomatic coronavirus disease case-patients by presymptomatic and symptomatic exposure. We observed no transmission from asymptomatic case-patients and highest SAR through presymptomatic exposure. Rapid quarantine of close contacts with or without symptoms is needed to prevent presymptomatic transmission.

A study on infectivity of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers
Conclusion: In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.

ARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19 Symptoms
Conclusion: Under a range of assumptions of presymptomatic transmission and transmission from individuals with infection who never develop symptoms, the model presented here estimated that more than half of transmission comes from asymptomatic individuals. In the absence of effective and widespread use of therapeutics or vaccines that can shorten or eliminate infectivity, successful control of SARS-CoV-2 cannot rely solely on identifying and isolating symptomatic cases; even if implemented effectively, this strategy would be insufficient.

As always, read the whole paper rather than just cheery pick conclusions. Stated limitations of a study are always telling. In the case of the first study you linked, the Limitation state

" A limitation of our study is that evidence was obtained from a single outbreak and might not be applicable to other settings. We used only information as recalled by the case-patients, which is imperfect and may introduce errors or bias. Because we used development of respiratory symptoms as a proxy for possible SARS-CoV-2 infections among contacts, and because incidence of respiratory illnesses was still high in this winter timeframe, SARres may be overestimated."

So, no, given these stated limitation we can not conclude that " research is showing a significant risk of transmission from pre-symptomatic patients.
"

The second study you link does not support your previous assertion that asymptomatic carriers are any more infectious than asymptomatic vaccinated individuals. However, this study is also weak as it clearly states:
'The limitation of our study is that there is only one case and lack of detailed information on family members quarantined locally."

The third study you have linked is, I believe, the same study as linked to by LakeEffect. I have already made fairly clear in my comments to LE why I think that this study is worthless.

So, can we agree that unless there are more conclusive studies, showing otherwise, healthy, asymptomatic carriers are probably not any more infectious than healthy, asymptomatic vaccinated folks, and leave it at that?

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Wow... Talk about how to ramp things up..
I notice there have been no write ups about Years of Life Lost in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and the Yemen... but then those were commercial ventures with collateral damage to the deplorables and large profits for the initiators and BF's..
Next it'll be the Billions of Working Hours Lost..
Get real man, these 'Studies' are bought and paid for to achieve the desired Spin.. if you think they really give a damn for anything other than political goals and votes your even more naive than you appear.
Emotional puppeteering..

+ 100%

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by jtsailjt

We can assume or speculate about almost any number because we haven’t done this before so don’t know for sure. But right now the efficacy of the top vaccines is much, much higher. The flu vaccines are that low but others do much better. So, who knows?

Are you suggesting the high number of new cases has anything to do with the portion of the population thats been vaccinated? Because from what I’ve read, the infection rate amongst vaccinated people is very, very low. Isn it more likely that the high number of new cases in some areas is partially due to pandemic fatigue and the resulting relaxation of social distancing measures, especially among younger people? Where i live, after a long period of just about every public venue being closed down, bars and restaurants have been opened up for indoor dining again. Since quite a few folks have been vaccinated we feel that its safe enough to visit these places and have done so, something we couldn’t/wouldn’t do 3 months ago. Rather than limiting my grocery store visits to once every 2 weeks, I’m in there to pick up a few things almost every day, just like in pre-covid days. Its no surprise that lots of unvaccinated people also seem to want to join in and enjoy the increased freedom and feeling of a return to normalcy that occasionally dining out, etc. brings. But they are no more protected than we all were last fall when everything was shut down and everyone was social distancing in earnest. Since theres still a very significant percentage of the population who have not been vaccinated, and some recent variants are more easily spread than the original, unvaccinated people and those without natural immunity are seemingly passing around the virus amongst themselves at a very high rate.

But i guess the silver lining in this cloud is that between the ever increasing numbers of the vaccinated population and the increasing numbers of those who have gained some immunity to Covid by catching and surviving it, theoretically we should reach the point where there will be very few folks left for unvaccinated people to catch it from, assuming a vaccine resistant variant doesn’t become dominant before that occurs. Until then, its a combination of luck and survival of the fittest, except regarding Covid and its ability to randomly seriously harm or kill even the seemingly most fit, those two factors make it more like an all inclusive game of Russian Roulette but with the twist that those with preexisting conditions have even greater odds of losing compared with people with no preexisting conditions and those who have been vaccinated largely get to watch from the sidelines, at least until/if a vaccine resistant variant becomes common, then we’ll all be back in the game, like it or not.

Great summary of what I believe, thanks!
To add to Covid fatigue (great term) is the fact that so many people have generally relaxed their vigilance over time with no repercussions simply due to luck. We had a large outbreak here in a college dorm and the story is that these parties had been going on for some time under the radar and it only became an issue when one person arrived with Covid and sent more than 20 away with it.
Complicating the situation from an anecdotal perspective, I had a staff member who tested positive along with her married sister (makes sense as they meet socially) while the sister's husband and the staff member's roommates did not catch it despite the closest of contacts.
Ultimately there is lots of room for people to make up their mind based on what they have seem and experienced which has led to lots of disparate opinions. Sadly we somehow feel the need to convince others that they need to see it our way first in a missionary way and then shouting and name calling.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Greg K

So, can we agree that unless there are more conclusive studies, showing otherwise, healthy, asymptomatic carriers are probably not any more infectious than healthy, asymptomatic vaccinated folks, and leave it at that?

It's a reasonable extrapolation, but none of the linked studies considered this exact question. Can you point to some that do? That would be interesting.

The evolving research is indicating that while asymptomatic patients are at low risk of spread, presymptomatic individuals do present a higher risk.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Greg K

... So, can we agree that unless there are more conclusive studies, showing otherwise, healthy, asymptomatic carriers are probably not any more infectious than healthy, asymptomatic vaccinated folks, and leave it at that?

No.
If the proofs, regarding asymptomatic carriers, are weak and/or inconclusive, that doesn't prove [nor even suggest] that the opposite is true, nor even likely true.
It merely suggests that we don't know, and we need more conclusive studies.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Greg K

Do you even know what a "decision analytical model" is? It is an opinion based on computer modeling.... garbage in/garbage out.

Half my career was in programming and data handling. You? Modeling is here to stay, and is very useful.

...and as for the rest of your argument, which seems to be "they didn't say what they said"... that's not proof of anything except a vivid imagination. Your personal dissatisfaction with the explanations for A does not prove not-A. (which Gord has also tried to point out)

If this is the best you can do, better stick to National Geographic and The Atlantic fluff pieces LE or try harder You're embarrassing yourself.

Hey, you're the one who banked on ONE verbal response to a question that was clarified and walked back less than 24 hours later...

We're gonna run out of tinfoil here.

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by GordMay

No.
If the proofs, regarding asymptomatic carriers, are weak and/or inconclusive, that doesn't prove [nor even suggest] that the opposite is true, nor even likely true.
It merely suggests that we don't know, and we need more conclusive studies.

Sure, I'm all for more research. In the meantime, how about some of you folks here tone down the rhetoric about the danger to the public of unvaccinated, asymptomatic carriers until you have more definitive evidence backing that up. Fair enough?

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Greg K

... can we agree that unless there are more conclusive studies, showing otherwise, healthy, asymptomatic carriers are probably not any more infectious than healthy, asymptomatic vaccinated folks, and leave it at that?

This is massively illogical. There is near universal acknowledgment that the COVID vaccinations reduce the severity and duration of illness if the vaccinated person happens to contract it. Why would this not extend to the asymptomatic cases among the vaccinated? Can the vaccine tell the difference?

In the meantime, how about some of you folks here tone down the rhetoric about the danger to the public of unvaccinated, asymptomatic carriers until you have more definitive evidence backing that up. Fair enough?

The danger to the public, relatively speaking, is unvaccinated people, period. Do you have a system for determining who will be asymptomatic if they catch it?

[jtsailjt]

We know that overall, vaccinated people have a much lower chance of having a serious case of covid than those who are unvaccinated. Over the past year, the covid virus has seemed to have had little trouble spreading far and wide and i dont think much of that spread came from those who knew they had active, transmissable cases of covid because most people who discovered they had covid immediately isolated themselves so exposed only immediate family members/caregivers or healthcare workers once they realized they were sick. So a large portion of the transfer came from people who didnt yet know they had it (presymptomatic) or were in denial that they had it or probably a few who knew but didnt care. Since vaccinated people are much less likely to ever get a case of covid thats serious enough to make them much of a danger to associates, theres a much lower risk of having contact with them compared with a nonvaccinated person who may or may not yet realize he/she is well into the process of coming down with a serious case of the covid virus. Given 2 people with no apparent symptoms, the unvaccinated person has about a 95% greater chance than the vaccinated person of being moments away from realizing he/she has an active case of covid. And during this window where serious symptoms just begin to become apparent, these people are very contagious. Thats part of why its been so hard to control the spread of this virus.

[Lake-Effect]

^ ^ ^

Very important. Thanks. Who can tell the difference between an infected person who's presymptomatic, and one who has an asymptomatic case? Answer... you can't.

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Half my career was in programming and data handling. You? Modeling is here to stay, and is very useful.

Yes, that figures. Me? Spent a good chunk of my career reading research and evaluating the research papers of graduate students, most recently in the medical field.

Modeling is only as good as the underlying assumptions. Therefore garbage in - garbage out. As a professional in the field, I would think you would not dispute that.

Did you examine the references underlying the assumptions of the paper I criticized?

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by jtsailjt

Given 2 people with no apparent symptoms, the unvaccinated person has about a 95% greater chance than the vaccinated person of being moments away from realizing he/she has an active case of covid. .

Source?